Worth mentioning that the Reform have never really been projected a landslide majority. Maybe some one off polls here and there but, on average, nowhere close to Labour's 411 seat victory in 2024, or even the Conservatives' 365 seats in 2019

Cumbria

➡️ RFM: 32.3%
🟥 LAB: 20.5%
🟧 LDM: 20.1%
🟦 CON: 19.0%
🟩 GRN: 7.6%

Cheshire

➡️ RFM: 32.3%
🟥 LAB: 27.1%
🟦 CON: 19.6%
🟩 GRN: 11.6%
🟧 LDM: 8.0%

Vote type / seat projection

Constituency:
🟨 SNP: 34% | 62
➡️ RFM: 21% | 2
🟥 LAB: 14% | 2
🟦 CON: 9% | 0
🟩 GRN: 9% | 2
🟧 LDM: 9% | 5

List:
🟨 SNP: 30% | =
➡️ RFM: 21% | +21
🟩 GRN: 13% | +12
🟥 LAB: 12% | +11
🟦 CON: 10% | +9
🟧 LDM: 9% | +3
www.thenational.scot/news/2572794...

How many constituency seats do the SNP win in your model? I thought 57 seemed a bit low for a 20pt lead

This implies Labour's vote share in Scotland is now back to being lower than the UK total

GE2024: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 35.3% 🇬🇧 33.7%
Jan polls: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 ~20% 🇬🇧 ~25%