John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.
I share social science.
I share social science.
perhaps.
to my eye, grants seem uniquely incestuous.
and far less discussed for their corrupt/shady processes.
to my eye, grants seem uniquely incestuous.
and far less discussed for their corrupt/shady processes.
November 10, 2025 at 10:00 PM
perhaps.
to my eye, grants seem uniquely incestuous.
and far less discussed for their corrupt/shady processes.
to my eye, grants seem uniquely incestuous.
and far less discussed for their corrupt/shady processes.
BKC_JMP.pdf
drive.google.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
"Why Small Experimental Effects of Social Media Use Are Compatible With Large Real-World Effects"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
November 9, 2025 at 9:20 PM
"Why Small Experimental Effects of Social Media Use Are Compatible With Large Real-World Effects"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
yet many folks have ignored these points in parading cessation experiments.
November 9, 2025 at 9:19 PM
yet many folks have ignored these points in parading cessation experiments.
These local experiments may not capture the broader cultural & psychological impact of universal social media use. When social media use is ubiquitous, it can fundamentally alter the broader culture & social milieu, even affecting the mental health of teenagers who abstain from social media entirely
November 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
These local experiments may not capture the broader cultural & psychological impact of universal social media use. When social media use is ubiquitous, it can fundamentally alter the broader culture & social milieu, even affecting the mental health of teenagers who abstain from social media entirely
3.) The social media hypothesis concerns a large-scale change—the widespread adoption of social media among teenagers. RCTs, in contrast, test small-scale effects of individuals quitting while most peers remain online.
November 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
3.) The social media hypothesis concerns a large-scale change—the widespread adoption of social media among teenagers. RCTs, in contrast, test small-scale effects of individuals quitting while most peers remain online.
2.) The social media hypothesis concerns the cumulative effect of using social media for years; RCTs identify the effect of quitting social media for weeks.
November 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
2.) The social media hypothesis concerns the cumulative effect of using social media for years; RCTs identify the effect of quitting social media for weeks.
1.) The social media hypothesis concerns the effects of joining social media; RCTs identify the effect of quitting.
November 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
1.) The social media hypothesis concerns the effects of joining social media; RCTs identify the effect of quitting.
"The authors show how easily observational data analyses, experimental designs, and causal models are tweaked in ways that are extremely difficult, often impossible, to detect. As a consequence, the credibility crisis in science is even more severe than both scientists and the public believe."
November 5, 2025 at 10:29 PM
"The authors show how easily observational data analyses, experimental designs, and causal models are tweaked in ways that are extremely difficult, often impossible, to detect. As a consequence, the credibility crisis in science is even more severe than both scientists and the public believe."
Source: "The significance filter, the winner's curse and the need to shrink"
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
The significance filter, the winner's curse and the need to shrink
The “significance filter” refers to focusing exclusively on statistically significant results. Since frequentist properties such as unbiasedness and coverage are valid only before the data have been ...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Source: "The significance filter, the winner's curse and the need to shrink"
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Evidence of publication bias is even present at PLOS ONE--where the editors (supposedly) "make decisions on submissions based on scientific rigor, regardless of novelty”
November 4, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Evidence of publication bias is even present at PLOS ONE--where the editors (supposedly) "make decisions on submissions based on scientific rigor, regardless of novelty”
Source: "When War Hits Home: How the Israel-Hamas conflict shapes American beliefs about Antisemitism"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
November 4, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Source: "When War Hits Home: How the Israel-Hamas conflict shapes American beliefs about Antisemitism"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
Source: osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io
November 3, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Source: osf.io/preprints/so...