John Holbein
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johnholbein1.bsky.social
John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.

I share social science.
perhaps.

to my eye, grants seem uniquely incestuous.

and far less discussed for their corrupt/shady processes.
November 10, 2025 at 10:00 PM
BKC_JMP.pdf
drive.google.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
"Why Small Experimental Effects of Social Media Use Are Compatible With Large Real-World Effects"

osf.io/preprints/so...
November 9, 2025 at 9:20 PM
yet many folks have ignored these points in parading cessation experiments.
November 9, 2025 at 9:19 PM
These local experiments may not capture the broader cultural & psychological impact of universal social media use. When social media use is ubiquitous, it can fundamentally alter the broader culture & social milieu, even affecting the mental health of teenagers who abstain from social media entirely
November 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
3.) The social media hypothesis concerns a large-scale change—the widespread adoption of social media among teenagers. RCTs, in contrast, test small-scale effects of individuals quitting while most peers remain online.
November 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
2.) The social media hypothesis concerns the cumulative effect of using social media for years; RCTs identify the effect of quitting social media for weeks.
November 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
1.) The social media hypothesis concerns the effects of joining social media; RCTs identify the effect of quitting.
November 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
"The authors show how easily observational data analyses, experimental designs, and causal models are tweaked in ways that are extremely difficult, often impossible, to detect. As a consequence, the credibility crisis in science is even more severe than both scientists and the public believe."
November 5, 2025 at 10:29 PM
dataverse.harvard.edu
November 5, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Evidence of publication bias is even present at PLOS ONE--where the editors (supposedly) "make decisions on submissions based on scientific rigor, regardless of novelty”
November 4, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Source: "When War Hits Home: How the Israel-Hamas conflict shapes American beliefs about Antisemitism"

osf.io/preprints/so...
November 4, 2025 at 4:17 PM
OSF
osf.io
November 3, 2025 at 10:52 PM