John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.
I share social science.
I share social science.
Pinned
John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
· Jun 12
Did you know that your siblings can influence whether you vote?
Well, because of our new working paper you do!
@mike-bloem.bsky.social, @jonisaacsmith.bsky.social, sam imlay
Well, because of our new working paper you do!
@mike-bloem.bsky.social, @jonisaacsmith.bsky.social, sam imlay
Do you think giving folks a basic income would reduce crime?
Think again.
"We estimate precise zero effects [of basic income] on criminal perpetration."
Think again.
"We estimate precise zero effects [of basic income] on criminal perpetration."
December 8, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Do you think giving folks a basic income would reduce crime?
Think again.
"We estimate precise zero effects [of basic income] on criminal perpetration."
Think again.
"We estimate precise zero effects [of basic income] on criminal perpetration."
Noise pollution from electric passenger rail harms babies' health.
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
December 5, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Noise pollution from electric passenger rail harms babies' health.
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
When firms unionize it makes their workers become even more liberal.
December 5, 2025 at 6:37 PM
When firms unionize it makes their workers become even more liberal.
We should probably be placing incarcerated people in prisons closest to their homes.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
December 4, 2025 at 1:46 PM
We should probably be placing incarcerated people in prisons closest to their homes.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
Poor folks have (comparatively) few rich friends on Facebook.
December 4, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Poor folks have (comparatively) few rich friends on Facebook.
Reposted by John Holbein
A word of wisdom from @cdsamii.bsky.social re credibility revolution and survey experiments: your conjoint or list experiment is not a policy intervention with real causal effects -- it's a measurement tool.
A lot of smart folks are still confused about it for some reason!
cyrussamii.com?p=4168
A lot of smart folks are still confused about it for some reason!
cyrussamii.com?p=4168
December 3, 2025 at 10:07 PM
A word of wisdom from @cdsamii.bsky.social re credibility revolution and survey experiments: your conjoint or list experiment is not a policy intervention with real causal effects -- it's a measurement tool.
A lot of smart folks are still confused about it for some reason!
cyrussamii.com?p=4168
A lot of smart folks are still confused about it for some reason!
cyrussamii.com?p=4168
Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
December 2, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
I ❤️ cool metascience.
"[Political science] studies without an explicit identification strategy...constitute nearly 40% of empirical quantitative work."
December 2, 2025 at 7:36 PM
I ❤️ cool metascience.
Living near a gambling establishment increases the likelihood of people becoming problematic gamblers.
December 2, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Living near a gambling establishment increases the likelihood of people becoming problematic gamblers.
December 2, 2025 at 7:08 PM
"[Political science] studies without an explicit identification strategy...constitute nearly 40% of empirical quantitative work."
December 2, 2025 at 7:01 PM
"[Political science] studies without an explicit identification strategy...constitute nearly 40% of empirical quantitative work."
"Broad claims of generalized cognitive enhancement resulting from physical exercise appear premature"
December 1, 2025 at 9:58 PM
"Broad claims of generalized cognitive enhancement resulting from physical exercise appear premature"
You lose your wallet.
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
December 1, 2025 at 9:30 PM
You lose your wallet.
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
Where are you most likely to get it back?
It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet.
But it's better to lose your wallet in:
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Norway 🇳🇴
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Denmark 🇩🇰
You're far less likely to get your wallet back in:
China 🇨🇳
Morrocco 🇲🇦
Peru 🇵🇪
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
Exposure to the Dave Ramsey Show decreases monthly household expenditures.
December 1, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Exposure to the Dave Ramsey Show decreases monthly household expenditures.
There’s something deeply bizarre about mass-litigating an individual student’s grades.
December 1, 2025 at 4:07 PM
There’s something deeply bizarre about mass-litigating an individual student’s grades.
Legalizing recreational marijuana reduces suicides among older white Americans.
December 1, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Legalizing recreational marijuana reduces suicides among older white Americans.
December 1, 2025 at 1:02 PM
November 29, 2025 at 1:27 AM
You know what pairs perfectly with Thanksgiving turkey, mashed potatoes, and pie?
...
...
...
Finishing that review you've been sitting on for 6+ months.
...
...
...
Finishing that review you've been sitting on for 6+ months.
November 27, 2025 at 9:02 PM
You know what pairs perfectly with Thanksgiving turkey, mashed potatoes, and pie?
...
...
...
Finishing that review you've been sitting on for 6+ months.
...
...
...
Finishing that review you've been sitting on for 6+ months.
Wild how the average age of Nobel winners keeps rising
November 26, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Wild how the average age of Nobel winners keeps rising
Does blinding--i.e., concealing applicants' identities--reduce gender gaps in academic conference paper acceptances?
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
November 26, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Does blinding--i.e., concealing applicants' identities--reduce gender gaps in academic conference paper acceptances?
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
I recently hit 6 months under review for a paper.
The reviewers must really like them to spend so much time on them.
The reviewers must really like them to spend so much time on them.
November 25, 2025 at 11:33 PM
I recently hit 6 months under review for a paper.
The reviewers must really like them to spend so much time on them.
The reviewers must really like them to spend so much time on them.
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.