John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.
I share social science.
I share social science.
Wild how the average age of Nobel winners keeps rising
November 26, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Wild how the average age of Nobel winners keeps rising
Does blinding--i.e., concealing applicants' identities--reduce gender gaps in academic conference paper acceptances?
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
November 26, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Does blinding--i.e., concealing applicants' identities--reduce gender gaps in academic conference paper acceptances?
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
Nope!
Does blinding do anything?
It does! Blinding reduces gaps in acceptances by institution rank.
haruka-uchida.github.io/websitefiles...
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
This is terrifying.
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" -@seanjwestwood.bsky.social
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" -@seanjwestwood.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 9:03 PM
This is terrifying.
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" -@seanjwestwood.bsky.social
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" -@seanjwestwood.bsky.social
The current housing market is the ultimate form of birth control.
November 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
The current housing market is the ultimate form of birth control.
"Why Small Experimental Effects of Social Media Use Are Compatible With Large Real-World Effects"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
November 9, 2025 at 9:20 PM
"Why Small Experimental Effects of Social Media Use Are Compatible With Large Real-World Effects"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
Is social media to blame for teens’ mental health decline?
Intuition says yes—but RCTs find only small short-term effects when users quit.
This new preprint argues these studies don’t prove social media isn’t to blame.
Here’s why: 3 reasons.
Intuition says yes—but RCTs find only small short-term effects when users quit.
This new preprint argues these studies don’t prove social media isn’t to blame.
Here’s why: 3 reasons.
November 9, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Is social media to blame for teens’ mental health decline?
Intuition says yes—but RCTs find only small short-term effects when users quit.
This new preprint argues these studies don’t prove social media isn’t to blame.
Here’s why: 3 reasons.
Intuition says yes—but RCTs find only small short-term effects when users quit.
This new preprint argues these studies don’t prove social media isn’t to blame.
Here’s why: 3 reasons.
lol.
"please note that APF is not able to offer feedback on individual applications."
"please note that APF is not able to offer feedback on individual applications."
November 5, 2025 at 10:50 PM
lol.
"please note that APF is not able to offer feedback on individual applications."
"please note that APF is not able to offer feedback on individual applications."
This book coming out in early 2026 looks interesting.
November 5, 2025 at 10:28 PM
This book coming out in early 2026 looks interesting.
Evidence of publication bias is even present at PLOS ONE--where the editors (supposedly) "make decisions on submissions based on scientific rigor, regardless of novelty”
November 4, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Evidence of publication bias is even present at PLOS ONE--where the editors (supposedly) "make decisions on submissions based on scientific rigor, regardless of novelty”
Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!
November 4, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!
Source: "When War Hits Home: How the Israel-Hamas conflict shapes American beliefs about Antisemitism"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
November 4, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Source: "When War Hits Home: How the Israel-Hamas conflict shapes American beliefs about Antisemitism"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
Look at how ratings of Israeli restaurants in the U.S. declined as Israel’s ground invasion in Gaza intensified.
November 4, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Look at how ratings of Israeli restaurants in the U.S. declined as Israel’s ground invasion in Gaza intensified.
lol; as statistical power goes up, effect sizes go down
November 3, 2025 at 10:51 PM
lol; as statistical power goes up, effect sizes go down
"How Similar Are Grokipedia and Wikipedia? A Multi-Dimensional Textual and Structural Comparison"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
November 3, 2025 at 7:29 PM
"How Similar Are Grokipedia and Wikipedia? A Multi-Dimensional Textual and Structural Comparison"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
Interesting.
"Grokipedia’s generation process elaborates on existing material...rather than producing substantively new or more rigorously sourced knowledge"
"[Grokipedia] mirrors Wikipedia’s informational scope but... favor[s] narrative expansion over citation-based verification"
"Grokipedia’s generation process elaborates on existing material...rather than producing substantively new or more rigorously sourced knowledge"
"[Grokipedia] mirrors Wikipedia’s informational scope but... favor[s] narrative expansion over citation-based verification"
November 3, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Interesting.
"Grokipedia’s generation process elaborates on existing material...rather than producing substantively new or more rigorously sourced knowledge"
"[Grokipedia] mirrors Wikipedia’s informational scope but... favor[s] narrative expansion over citation-based verification"
"Grokipedia’s generation process elaborates on existing material...rather than producing substantively new or more rigorously sourced knowledge"
"[Grokipedia] mirrors Wikipedia’s informational scope but... favor[s] narrative expansion over citation-based verification"
Interesting results from Germany shows that the political content consumed on TikTok tends to skew conservative.
November 3, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Interesting results from Germany shows that the political content consumed on TikTok tends to skew conservative.
"Expanded access to legal cannabis has not worsened respiratory health overall"
November 3, 2025 at 1:47 PM
"Expanded access to legal cannabis has not worsened respiratory health overall"
Want to decrease abortions?
Make contraceptives free.
Make contraceptives free.
October 27, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Want to decrease abortions?
Make contraceptives free.
Make contraceptives free.
Elon Musk's involvement in politics really hurt Tesla sales.
"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles."
"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles."
October 27, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Elon Musk's involvement in politics really hurt Tesla sales.
"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles."
"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles."