Jared Bernstein
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social
Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions.
www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...
www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...
Five Reasons Lawmakers Should Reject Expansions of Health Savings Accounts
Expanding health savings accounts (HSAs) is a key element of Republicans’ health care policy agenda. Ostensibly, HSAs allow people enrolled in certain health insurance policies to set aside money...
www.cbpp.org
November 10, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions.
www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...
www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...
Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”
We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!
We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!
Listening to some of the oral arguments at the Supreme Court, I am struck by the difficulty of making a legal -- as opposed to economic -- argument that Trump's tariffs are inappropriate. The legal case that tariffs can't be delegated en masse because they are revenue raising seems weak to me.
November 5, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”
We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!
We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!
On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent.
www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
Opinion | The Tariff King and the Supreme Court
Will the Justices stop Trump from usurping Congress’s power over taxes and tariffs?
www.wsj.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:09 PM
On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent.
www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts
www.nytimes.com
November 2, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching.
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
Who's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth?
The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing.
econjared.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 12:05 PM
There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching.
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
It looks like a bubble to us:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
Opinion | A.I. Sure Looks Like a Bubble. Watch Out When It Pops.
www.nytimes.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:29 AM
It looks like a bubble to us:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
Re the shutdown, this is one of those moments when it's crystal clear who's fighting for whom:
econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...
econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...
Breaking News: Contrary to their Claims, Republicans are Perfectly Happy to Raise Taxes
And not by a little, but by over 100% and over $100bn. It's just a matter of who they hit.
econjared.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Re the shutdown, this is one of those moments when it's crystal clear who's fighting for whom:
econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...
econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...
I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...
Taylor Swift - The Fate of Ophelia (Visualizer)
YouTube video by Taylor Swift
www.youtube.com
October 3, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...
Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.
October 3, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.
Paging @jedkolko.bsky.social @econberger.bsky.social @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @markzandi.bsky.social and all others who can help here.
I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab...
I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab...
October 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Paging @jedkolko.bsky.social @econberger.bsky.social @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @markzandi.bsky.social and all others who can help here.
I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab...
I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab...
New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles:
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...
A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda!
Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney.
econjared.substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 2:06 PM
New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles:
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...
Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK.
September 16, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK.
I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is.
econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...
econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...
A Contrast in Numbers: The White House Forecast vs. BLS
The White House grows out of its deficit problem by way of a fantasy forecast. And then tells us it's BLS that's cooking the numbers.
econjared.substack.com
September 9, 2025 at 1:34 PM
I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is.
econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...
econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...
As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender.
*This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.
*This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.
Last bit in Goolsbee interview, he is so calm that it's jarring.
To me, Stephen Miran's joining the Fed is not 'business as usual' of a former CEA member coming to the Fed. Miran will be at both at the same time. Also, he called out Goolsbee a year ago as political. youtu.be/41hdpI4IBtg?...
To me, Stephen Miran's joining the Fed is not 'business as usual' of a former CEA member coming to the Fed. Miran will be at both at the same time. Also, he called out Goolsbee a year ago as political. youtu.be/41hdpI4IBtg?...
Fed's Goolsbee on Jobs Report, Rate Cut and Miran
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
youtu.be
September 7, 2025 at 1:14 PM
As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender.
*This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.
*This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.
Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!"
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...
Let’s Do Lunch! 09/02
A recording from Jared Bernstein's Let's Do Lunch 09/02
contrarian.substack.com
September 3, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!"
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...
Reposted by Jared Bernstein
This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social
"Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..."
1/2
"Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..."
1/2
September 1, 2025 at 3:21 PM
This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social
"Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..."
1/2
"Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..."
1/2
Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.
August 26, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.
All here: www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-no...
August 12, 2025 at 2:56 PM
All here: www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-no...
From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool:
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...
August 3, 2025 at 4:56 PM
From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool:
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...
Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)
How much can the private stats reports make up for the loss? Any chance that they would step into the BLS loss of credibility?
August 1, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)
I am. The BLS is staffed w high integrity staff who are 100% committed to accuracy and best practices. But yes—very worried about this.
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social are you worried?
August 1, 2025 at 10:41 PM
I am. The BLS is staffed w high integrity staff who are 100% committed to accuracy and best practices. But yes—very worried about this.
When they were little, I also used to make breakfast for the kids on jobs day. I’d ask them to predict payrolls and u rate. They did no better or worse than the pros.
I usually make breakfast for my family in the morning, but on Jobs Day I order donuts; so my daughter usually yells at me that it's jobs day at 7:45.
August 1, 2025 at 2:32 PM
When they were little, I also used to make breakfast for the kids on jobs day. I’d ask them to predict payrolls and u rate. They did no better or worse than the pros.
Was just half-listening to Powell presser and thought I heard him implicitly disagree w Waller re labor-market assessment. Gov W says it’s weak: Chair P says it’s solid. Key difference prob where you see labor supply. P sees it slowing at similar rate to labor demand (see u rate).
July 30, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Was just half-listening to Powell presser and thought I heard him implicitly disagree w Waller re labor-market assessment. Gov W says it’s weak: Chair P says it’s solid. Key difference prob where you see labor supply. P sees it slowing at similar rate to labor demand (see u rate).
Very interested in what Nick, one of the nation's premier Fed reporters, with deep historical knowledge, has to say about recent Fed...um..."developments."
Let’s Do Lunch! in ONE HOUR
Join economists Jared Bernstein and Nick Timiraos as they answer YOUR most pressing financial questions
Watch on the Contrarian Substack | 12pm ET
Join economists Jared Bernstein and Nick Timiraos as they answer YOUR most pressing financial questions
Watch on the Contrarian Substack | 12pm ET
July 22, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Very interested in what Nick, one of the nation's premier Fed reporters, with deep historical knowledge, has to say about recent Fed...um..."developments."
Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy.
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...
Everybody's Talking About Affordability Policy. But How's That Supposed to Work?
Here's a framework on which to build out the policies and the big-tent politics.
econjared.substack.com
July 22, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy.
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...