Jared Bernstein
jaredb-econ.bsky.social
Jared Bernstein
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social
Neither the BLS establishment survey nor the ADP pick up self-employment. They're both payroll surveys of companies. The BLS Household survey does report self-emp.
October 1, 2025 at 1:10 PM
BUT it's the only damn game in town right now and it's down (pvt sector only, of course, 3 outta the last 4 months. What's the signal here in your opinions?? My take: job creation very low; wouldn't over-torque on the ADP losses, but they do support low-hire view.
October 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Job creation weaker, sure, but unemp rate not affected by this revision so not obvious that the labor market was "weaker" than we thought, as in more slack. Breakeven probably lower than we thought, so could have fewer jobs and not much unemp rate rise.
September 9, 2025 at 3:36 PM
I’m in exit aisle, dude!
August 26, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Listen to Aaron (and not just re listening to Jared)!
August 26, 2025 at 5:41 PM
I was referring AEI, not Trump's nominee.
August 12, 2025 at 2:56 PM
...corp power in sectors with inadequate competition and thereby excessive pricing power.
Entrenched forces will fight like hell to preserve rents at each step, but this is what the people want and need.
Oh, of course, no own goal kicks, such as sweeping tariffs. They've gotta go.
August 3, 2025 at 4:56 PM