Jared Bernstein
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social
Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.
October 3, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.
Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.
August 26, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.
...on this. We're still driving through the fog so have to go slow. Tariff price effects starting to show & more coming. And Trump's dragging out "negotiations" just thickens the fog.
On 3, unrevised data don't show stall speed, & revisions-based arguments often turn out...
On 3, unrevised data don't show stall speed, & revisions-based arguments often turn out...
July 18, 2025 at 5:17 PM
...on this. We're still driving through the fog so have to go slow. Tariff price effects starting to show & more coming. And Trump's dragging out "negotiations" just thickens the fog.
On 3, unrevised data don't show stall speed, & revisions-based arguments often turn out...
On 3, unrevised data don't show stall speed, & revisions-based arguments often turn out...
The devolution of American fiscal policy in one annotated graph, told through the history of our publicly-held debt/GDP, including the impact of Trump and the R's budget bill.
July 2, 2025 at 4:33 PM
The devolution of American fiscal policy in one annotated graph, told through the history of our publicly-held debt/GDP, including the impact of Trump and the R's budget bill.
Who wins/who loses from tax changes in the budget is an important question. But a more important question is who wins/loses from the full tax agenda, including tariffs, a highly regressive tax. Here’s the answer from the Budget Lab. Answer: **everyone** except the wealthy.
June 12, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Who wins/who loses from tax changes in the budget is an important question. But a more important question is who wins/loses from the full tax agenda, including tariffs, a highly regressive tax. Here’s the answer from the Budget Lab. Answer: **everyone** except the wealthy.
Friends don't let friends cite ADP, or at least we should wait for BLS on Friday. PMI services also came in below exp. GS researchers marked down May jobs forecast to 110K, which is just about breakeven as per Atl Fed.
www.atlantafed.org/chcs/calcula...
www.atlantafed.org/chcs/calcula...
June 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Friends don't let friends cite ADP, or at least we should wait for BLS on Friday. PMI services also came in below exp. GS researchers marked down May jobs forecast to 110K, which is just about breakeven as per Atl Fed.
www.atlantafed.org/chcs/calcula...
www.atlantafed.org/chcs/calcula...
The tariffs are, of course, a drag on growth. The tax package, otoh, increases the deficit, so + fiscal impulse. What's the expected net impact? According to GS, it's negative. The tariff drag > than the fiscal boost.
That said, when I look at this AM...
That said, when I look at this AM...
May 19, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The tariffs are, of course, a drag on growth. The tax package, otoh, increases the deficit, so + fiscal impulse. What's the expected net impact? According to GS, it's negative. The tariff drag > than the fiscal boost.
That said, when I look at this AM...
That said, when I look at this AM...
The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is out for March. It's...um...I think the technical phrase is...thru the roof.
www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html
www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html
March 31, 2025 at 9:26 PM
The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is out for March. It's...um...I think the technical phrase is...thru the roof.
www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html
www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html
Tariffs, Schrodinger's cat, internal pushback in the WH, and a very concerning stagflation forecast:
econjared.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
econjared.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
March 31, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Tariffs, Schrodinger's cat, internal pushback in the WH, and a very concerning stagflation forecast:
econjared.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
econjared.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
As someone who has carefully tracked noisy economic data for decades, it takes a lot to get me to say the following: Trump administration policies are clearly and sharply damaging consumer confidence.
IOW, not a blip, not one series or one month.
IOW, not a blip, not one series or one month.
March 25, 2025 at 2:42 PM
As someone who has carefully tracked noisy economic data for decades, it takes a lot to get me to say the following: Trump administration policies are clearly and sharply damaging consumer confidence.
IOW, not a blip, not one series or one month.
IOW, not a blip, not one series or one month.
CPI inflation came in cooler than expected last month, both toplines and under the hood. That makes this a welcome report, but the tariffs aren't in here yet, and they clearly have the potential to reverse this disinflation.
econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...
econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...
March 12, 2025 at 1:49 PM
CPI inflation came in cooler than expected last month, both toplines and under the hood. That makes this a welcome report, but the tariffs aren't in here yet, and they clearly have the potential to reverse this disinflation.
econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...
econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...
Agree. But that's why I elevated WSJ editorial board, the rich guys' hymnal!
But I still think you're right--it's the high-hand to anyone dumb enough not to see it his way. Thing is, in Trump 1, there was some elasticity to market reax. The day is young, so perhaps it's coming, but not so sure.
But I still think you're right--it's the high-hand to anyone dumb enough not to see it his way. Thing is, in Trump 1, there was some elasticity to market reax. The day is young, so perhaps it's coming, but not so sure.
March 4, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Agree. But that's why I elevated WSJ editorial board, the rich guys' hymnal!
But I still think you're right--it's the high-hand to anyone dumb enough not to see it his way. Thing is, in Trump 1, there was some elasticity to market reax. The day is young, so perhaps it's coming, but not so sure.
But I still think you're right--it's the high-hand to anyone dumb enough not to see it his way. Thing is, in Trump 1, there was some elasticity to market reax. The day is young, so perhaps it's coming, but not so sure.
Not seeing the graphic clearly in here so here it is, courtesy of Baker, Bloom, Davis. I just heard BBerg radio refer to tomorrow as "Tariff Tuesday" re proposed new Mexico, Canada, China import taxes. See ISM statement re miss on Feb manufacturing survey out this AM.
March 3, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Not seeing the graphic clearly in here so here it is, courtesy of Baker, Bloom, Davis. I just heard BBerg radio refer to tomorrow as "Tariff Tuesday" re proposed new Mexico, Canada, China import taxes. See ISM statement re miss on Feb manufacturing survey out this AM.
Ok, there's something concerning going on with consumer sentiment/confidence--across numerous surveys and polls--and it is clearly tied to Trump admin actions, esp. tariffs and the extensive focus on retribution over working families' living standards.
New Conf Board data:
New Conf Board data:
February 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Ok, there's something concerning going on with consumer sentiment/confidence--across numerous surveys and polls--and it is clearly tied to Trump admin actions, esp. tariffs and the extensive focus on retribution over working families' living standards.
New Conf Board data:
New Conf Board data:
Reviewing this past week's dataflow: housing, UI, markets, and particularly interesting new polling data on Trump approval and tariffs.
open.substack.com/pub/econjare...
open.substack.com/pub/econjare...
February 21, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Reviewing this past week's dataflow: housing, UI, markets, and particularly interesting new polling data on Trump approval and tariffs.
open.substack.com/pub/econjare...
open.substack.com/pub/econjare...
...that tariffs are passed forward to them. That's a fairly high-info result, esp given competing narratives about this.
--otoh, there's the UMich commentary below, suggesting this just reflects partisanship. 4x share of D's are in that spike relative to Rs!
--finally, re highlighted part...
--otoh, there's the UMich commentary below, suggesting this just reflects partisanship. 4x share of D's are in that spike relative to Rs!
--finally, re highlighted part...
December 20, 2024 at 11:25 PM
...that tariffs are passed forward to them. That's a fairly high-info result, esp given competing narratives about this.
--otoh, there's the UMich commentary below, suggesting this just reflects partisanship. 4x share of D's are in that spike relative to Rs!
--finally, re highlighted part...
--otoh, there's the UMich commentary below, suggesting this just reflects partisanship. 4x share of D's are in that spike relative to Rs!
--finally, re highlighted part...
Here's an interesting figure from today's Umich Sentiment Survey for Dec. There's a striking spike in people worried about durable purchases about to get a lot more pricy, "in part due to anticipated tariffs." A few thoughts about this:
--it suggests that consumers believe...
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
--it suggests that consumers believe...
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
December 20, 2024 at 11:25 PM
Here's an interesting figure from today's Umich Sentiment Survey for Dec. There's a striking spike in people worried about durable purchases about to get a lot more pricy, "in part due to anticipated tariffs." A few thoughts about this:
--it suggests that consumers believe...
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
--it suggests that consumers believe...
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
An uber lesson from all this is simply that pandemic economics is different such that "this time *isn't* different" analysis often foundered.
I was impressed by the incisive clarity with which economist Jan Hatzius explained this the other day on Odd Lots podcast:
bloomberg.com/news/article...
I was impressed by the incisive clarity with which economist Jan Hatzius explained this the other day on Odd Lots podcast:
bloomberg.com/news/article...
December 6, 2024 at 3:20 PM
An uber lesson from all this is simply that pandemic economics is different such that "this time *isn't* different" analysis often foundered.
I was impressed by the incisive clarity with which economist Jan Hatzius explained this the other day on Odd Lots podcast:
bloomberg.com/news/article...
I was impressed by the incisive clarity with which economist Jan Hatzius explained this the other day on Odd Lots podcast:
bloomberg.com/news/article...
On 2nd point above:
December 6, 2024 at 3:20 PM
On 2nd point above:
From the very sharp David Mericle at GS Research, here's the impact of a 1 ppt tariff rate increase on core PCE, by channel. What's notable is the production cost impact is larger than the direct consumer cost. There are a lot of tariff fans in denial abt this cost thru intermediate imports.
November 22, 2024 at 6:54 AM
From the very sharp David Mericle at GS Research, here's the impact of a 1 ppt tariff rate increase on core PCE, by channel. What's notable is the production cost impact is larger than the direct consumer cost. There are a lot of tariff fans in denial abt this cost thru intermediate imports.