Iain Mansfield
@igmansfield.bsky.social
Current affairs, politics, education and miscellany. All views my own.
Substack at edrith.co.uk
Substack at edrith.co.uk
Just spotted my Budget piece made it on to yesterday's FT Alphaville's 'Further Reading' list.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
November 19, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Just spotted my Budget piece made it on to yesterday's FT Alphaville's 'Further Reading' list.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
This is a good piece.
I’ve written a piece on the curious lack of media and political interest in the issues faced by our national @britishlibrary.bsky.social. This is strange given we live in a world where ideas, knowledge and research are a long-term source of innovation and insight
www.cityam.com/the-british-...
www.cityam.com/the-british-...
The British library is in crisis: why does nobody care?
The widespread indifference to the British Library's crippling cyberattack demonstrates a perilous failure to value the knowledge infrastructure vital for national prosperity
www.cityam.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:15 PM
This is a good piece.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Mahmood is up for a fight - with her own backbenches and the lawfare blob. My latest for @theipaper.com inews.co.uk/opinion/labo...
Labour isn't ready for the consequences of its radical new asylum policy
Shabana Mahmood, though, clearly doesn't mind a fight
inews.co.uk
November 18, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Mahmood is up for a fight - with her own backbenches and the lawfare blob. My latest for @theipaper.com inews.co.uk/opinion/labo...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
VG.
November 18, 2025 at 8:22 AM
VG.
Thank you to @stephenkb.bsky.social for (again!) referencing my Seven Rules of Thumb for Public Polocy in his column yesterday.
Specifically, Rule 4: Banning something reduces its prevalence, but not to nothing.
www.ft.com/content/42f2...
Specifically, Rule 4: Banning something reduces its prevalence, but not to nothing.
www.ft.com/content/42f2...
www.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Thank you to @stephenkb.bsky.social for (again!) referencing my Seven Rules of Thumb for Public Polocy in his column yesterday.
Specifically, Rule 4: Banning something reduces its prevalence, but not to nothing.
www.ft.com/content/42f2...
Specifically, Rule 4: Banning something reduces its prevalence, but not to nothing.
www.ft.com/content/42f2...
Excellent piece on how to balance the budget and put growth first by @tejparikh.ft.com
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
November 17, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Excellent piece on how to balance the budget and put growth first by @tejparikh.ft.com
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
In a similar vein, Theresa May should have stuck to her social care policy. She'd already taken the hit for it, so she might as well have at least addressed one of the most intractable problems in British politics
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:39 AM
In a similar vein, Theresa May should have stuck to her social care policy. She'd already taken the hit for it, so she might as well have at least addressed one of the most intractable problems in British politics
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
The biggest divide in British politics atm isn’t left vs right or open vs closed. It’s action vs inaction. Voters just want a govt that does something. Not sure they always care very much what that is. But have an idea and stick to it. A long way of saying, I think @igmansfield.bsky.social is right
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The biggest divide in British politics atm isn’t left vs right or open vs closed. It’s action vs inaction. Voters just want a govt that does something. Not sure they always care very much what that is. But have an idea and stick to it. A long way of saying, I think @igmansfield.bsky.social is right
Daisy Christodoulou sounds a note of caution on the ability of current LLMs to act as personal tutors.
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
Can LLMs be personal tutors?
Four big challenges
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Daisy Christodoulou sounds a note of caution on the ability of current LLMs to act as personal tutors.
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
open.substack.com/pub/daisychr...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
It is difficult to argue with the headline points here. If you're going to go down, do it a) swinging b) for something you believe in. No one truly believes in managed decline, which is exactly where we are.
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:10 AM
It is difficult to argue with the headline points here. If you're going to go down, do it a) swinging b) for something you believe in. No one truly believes in managed decline, which is exactly where we are.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Really good, fairminded and I think right on the question of why both Sunak and Starmer became unpopular so quickly and what the policy lessons from that are:
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 11:24 PM
Really good, fairminded and I think right on the question of why both Sunak and Starmer became unpopular so quickly and what the policy lessons from that are:
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Good piece making the argument for why politicians need to go big or go home
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Good piece making the argument for why politicians need to go big or go home
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Despite the author having centre right priors, this is correct. Big, insurgent government changes will net you similarly bad headlines as minor fudges - but at least they allow you to draw clear political dividing lines, plus let you fund positive change which you can take to the ballot box
November 16, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Despite the author having centre right priors, this is correct. Big, insurgent government changes will net you similarly bad headlines as minor fudges - but at least they allow you to draw clear political dividing lines, plus let you fund positive change which you can take to the ballot box
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
I'm not British, but as an outsider this seems obviously true. What is going on now just makes them look feckless and ineffective. You can try to sell a policy that you are doing something, even if people don't love it. You can't really convince people that you are being boldly indecisive.
November 16, 2025 at 4:55 PM
I'm not British, but as an outsider this seems obviously true. What is going on now just makes them look feckless and ineffective. You can try to sell a policy that you are doing something, even if people don't love it. You can't really convince people that you are being boldly indecisive.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Won't happen. But at some point a UK government is going to have to make a big decision to scrap the triple lock, and I suspect when they do it will prove to be far more popular than expected. Leadership rather than government by polling.
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Won't happen. But at some point a UK government is going to have to make a big decision to scrap the triple lock, and I suspect when they do it will prove to be far more popular than expected. Leadership rather than government by polling.
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
November 15, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
November 15, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
This last part in particular is so poorly understood. Part of winning an election is “appealing to your lot”, part is “not upsetting or terrifying the other lot”.
Starmer is disliked by ~75% of the electorate. Newsflash: that includes quite a lot of Labour voters- and, crucially, those who may have voted for other parties or stayed at home but were comfortable with Labour winning.
November 14, 2025 at 6:07 PM
This last part in particular is so poorly understood. Part of winning an election is “appealing to your lot”, part is “not upsetting or terrifying the other lot”.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Big scoop by my colleagues, this:
Starmer and Reeves ditch Budget plan to increase income tax rates
Chancellor explores alternative ways to raise revenue to fill fiscal hole estimated at up to £30bn
www.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Big scoop by my colleagues, this:
Cummings would approve!
I remember his blog back from pre-2019 days where he called it a Potemkin process.
I remember his blog back from pre-2019 days where he called it a Potemkin process.
Exclusive:
As part of the Whitehall delivery drive, the Labour government is looking at overhauling the 'write-round' process that has been used by Cabinet for years
Frustrated insiders say it creates needless delays and are pushing for a shake-up
It'll be major reform if they go for it
As part of the Whitehall delivery drive, the Labour government is looking at overhauling the 'write-round' process that has been used by Cabinet for years
Frustrated insiders say it creates needless delays and are pushing for a shake-up
It'll be major reform if they go for it
Whitehall Decision Making Procedure Could Be Overhauled To Stop Delays
The government is considering scrapping Whitehall's 'write-round' process as part of its bid to speed up decision making, PoliticsHome understands
www.politicshome.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Cummings would approve!
I remember his blog back from pre-2019 days where he called it a Potemkin process.
I remember his blog back from pre-2019 days where he called it a Potemkin process.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
100% this. FWIW I think a single earner on minimum wage should be able to buy a cheap terraced house in Chatham, as was the case when I was a kid, growing up there, in that sort of family. Build more f***ing houses! More power to @stephenkb.bsky.social
Anyway: both the state and private developers need to build at far greater rates, the default aim should be 'a dual earner couple on average incomes can live in non-crowded conditions and raise a family', and the model family *for policymakers* should be three for obvious reasons.
November 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
100% this. FWIW I think a single earner on minimum wage should be able to buy a cheap terraced house in Chatham, as was the case when I was a kid, growing up there, in that sort of family. Build more f***ing houses! More power to @stephenkb.bsky.social
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
If he does run I really hope his campaign slogan is "Chaos with Ed Miliband".
Verdict of one Labour grandee I just bumped into: “Ed Miliband is the person most likely to be the most next Prime Minister”.
November 13, 2025 at 1:14 PM
If he does run I really hope his campaign slogan is "Chaos with Ed Miliband".
The decline of the Office of National Statistics is a tragedy.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
November 12, 2025 at 10:24 PM
The decline of the Office of National Statistics is a tragedy.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.