Iain Mansfield
@igmansfield.bsky.social
Current affairs, politics, education and miscellany. All views my own.
Substack at edrith.co.uk
Substack at edrith.co.uk
Just spotted my Budget piece made it on to yesterday's FT Alphaville's 'Further Reading' list.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
November 19, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Just spotted my Budget piece made it on to yesterday's FT Alphaville's 'Further Reading' list.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Excellent piece on how to balance the budget and put growth first by @tejparikh.ft.com
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
November 17, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Excellent piece on how to balance the budget and put growth first by @tejparikh.ft.com
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
November 15, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
The decline of the Office of National Statistics is a tragedy.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
November 12, 2025 at 10:24 PM
The decline of the Office of National Statistics is a tragedy.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
2. Is the Green rise real?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
November 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM
2. Is the Green rise real?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
Polls are bouncing all over the place right now.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
November 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Polls are bouncing all over the place right now.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
This has changed though since our time.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
November 7, 2025 at 1:55 PM
This has changed though since our time.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
➡️262 prisoners released in error last year.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
November 5, 2025 at 12:57 PM
➡️262 prisoners released in error last year.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
Beware the man with one poll!
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
November 4, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Beware the man with one poll!
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
This was not how I imagined the Conservatives drawing level with Labour in the opinion polls was going to look like.
November 3, 2025 at 10:33 PM
This was not how I imagined the Conservatives drawing level with Labour in the opinion polls was going to look like.
And delighted to see that the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech Act) played a key role in securing Professor Murphy's apology and guarantee for future academic freedom.
November 3, 2025 at 12:09 PM
And delighted to see that the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech Act) played a key role in securing Professor Murphy's apology and guarantee for future academic freedom.
Shocking example of foreign interference on UK campuses infringing academic freedom.
How many more such cases are there, waiting to come to light?
How many more such cases are there, waiting to come to light?
November 3, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Shocking example of foreign interference on UK campuses infringing academic freedom.
How many more such cases are there, waiting to come to light?
How many more such cases are there, waiting to come to light?
Is it our phones that are the problem - or what's on them?
Rather than empowering government censors, we should focus our concerns on the whole structures of continuous scroll, algorithmic feeds and short-form video.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Rather than empowering government censors, we should focus our concerns on the whole structures of continuous scroll, algorithmic feeds and short-form video.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
November 3, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Is it our phones that are the problem - or what's on them?
Rather than empowering government censors, we should focus our concerns on the whole structures of continuous scroll, algorithmic feeds and short-form video.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Rather than empowering government censors, we should focus our concerns on the whole structures of continuous scroll, algorithmic feeds and short-form video.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Is it about restricting access to harmful content and 'misinformation'?
Or is the medium itself the problem: the endless scrolling, the algorithms, the pictures and videos of those with 'better' lives?
Two distinct theories of social media harm.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/smartphone...
Or is the medium itself the problem: the endless scrolling, the algorithms, the pictures and videos of those with 'better' lives?
Two distinct theories of social media harm.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/smartphone...
November 1, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Is it about restricting access to harmful content and 'misinformation'?
Or is the medium itself the problem: the endless scrolling, the algorithms, the pictures and videos of those with 'better' lives?
Two distinct theories of social media harm.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/smartphone...
Or is the medium itself the problem: the endless scrolling, the algorithms, the pictures and videos of those with 'better' lives?
Two distinct theories of social media harm.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/smartphone...
Taking 45 minutes of checks to *release a prisoner* seems not remotely disproportionate.
It can take longer than that to get admitted in A&E!
It can take longer than that to get admitted in A&E!
October 27, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Taking 45 minutes of checks to *release a prisoner* seems not remotely disproportionate.
It can take longer than that to get admitted in A&E!
It can take longer than that to get admitted in A&E!
This week's appalling attacks on Professors Alice Sullivan
and Michael Ben-Gad are the tip of the iceberg.
They emerge from a culture of impunity on the progressive left - which believes itself above the law, and has too often been permitted to act accordingly.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/the-progre...
and Michael Ben-Gad are the tip of the iceberg.
They emerge from a culture of impunity on the progressive left - which believes itself above the law, and has too often been permitted to act accordingly.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/the-progre...
October 26, 2025 at 9:55 AM
This week's appalling attacks on Professors Alice Sullivan
and Michael Ben-Gad are the tip of the iceberg.
They emerge from a culture of impunity on the progressive left - which believes itself above the law, and has too often been permitted to act accordingly.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/the-progre...
and Michael Ben-Gad are the tip of the iceberg.
They emerge from a culture of impunity on the progressive left - which believes itself above the law, and has too often been permitted to act accordingly.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/the-progre...
Caerphilly reminds me of the by-elections in 22/23 where Tories lost 'forever' seats.
Plaid's victory shows Reform's potential vulnerability.
But big question is can the Lib Dems or Greens take the Plaid role outside Wales and Scotland - or do Reform power through?
Plaid's victory shows Reform's potential vulnerability.
But big question is can the Lib Dems or Greens take the Plaid role outside Wales and Scotland - or do Reform power through?
October 24, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Caerphilly reminds me of the by-elections in 22/23 where Tories lost 'forever' seats.
Plaid's victory shows Reform's potential vulnerability.
But big question is can the Lib Dems or Greens take the Plaid role outside Wales and Scotland - or do Reform power through?
Plaid's victory shows Reform's potential vulnerability.
But big question is can the Lib Dems or Greens take the Plaid role outside Wales and Scotland - or do Reform power through?
However, I also agree with Portes that tax reform could also pay dividends.
And the three proposals set out here - if done in a fiscally neutral way - are well worth looking at.
And the three proposals set out here - if done in a fiscally neutral way - are well worth looking at.
October 20, 2025 at 6:11 PM
However, I also agree with Portes that tax reform could also pay dividends.
And the three proposals set out here - if done in a fiscally neutral way - are well worth looking at.
And the three proposals set out here - if done in a fiscally neutral way - are well worth looking at.
A carer earning £10,100 who received a pay rise of just £100, would suddenly find themselves almost £4,000 worse off.
They’d have to get a pay rise of over £4,300 - working over 350 more hours, at minimum wage - just to break even.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
They’d have to get a pay rise of over £4,300 - working over 350 more hours, at minimum wage - just to break even.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
October 20, 2025 at 6:58 AM
A carer earning £10,100 who received a pay rise of just £100, would suddenly find themselves almost £4,000 worse off.
They’d have to get a pay rise of over £4,300 - working over 350 more hours, at minimum wage - just to break even.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
They’d have to get a pay rise of over £4,300 - working over 350 more hours, at minimum wage - just to break even.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
As a Civil Service Fast Streamer, Martin Stanley's @ukcivilservant.bsky.social 'How to be a Civil Servant' was my go-to authority for understanding Whitehall.
Now, nearly 20 years later, I'm honoured that he's added my 'Seven Public Policy Rules of Thumb' to his site.
www.civilservant.org.uk
Now, nearly 20 years later, I'm honoured that he's added my 'Seven Public Policy Rules of Thumb' to his site.
www.civilservant.org.uk
October 19, 2025 at 8:49 AM
As a Civil Service Fast Streamer, Martin Stanley's @ukcivilservant.bsky.social 'How to be a Civil Servant' was my go-to authority for understanding Whitehall.
Now, nearly 20 years later, I'm honoured that he's added my 'Seven Public Policy Rules of Thumb' to his site.
www.civilservant.org.uk
Now, nearly 20 years later, I'm honoured that he's added my 'Seven Public Policy Rules of Thumb' to his site.
www.civilservant.org.uk
A carer earning £10,100 a year who earns an extra £100 will find themselves over £4,000 a year worse off.
On the median part-time wage, they'd need to work over 6 hours extra a week to overcome the cliff-edge.
Infinite marginal tax rates help no-one.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/on-the-stu...
On the median part-time wage, they'd need to work over 6 hours extra a week to overcome the cliff-edge.
Infinite marginal tax rates help no-one.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/on-the-stu...
October 18, 2025 at 11:06 AM
A carer earning £10,100 a year who earns an extra £100 will find themselves over £4,000 a year worse off.
On the median part-time wage, they'd need to work over 6 hours extra a week to overcome the cliff-edge.
Infinite marginal tax rates help no-one.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/on-the-stu...
On the median part-time wage, they'd need to work over 6 hours extra a week to overcome the cliff-edge.
Infinite marginal tax rates help no-one.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/on-the-stu...
The Government hasn't learned from previous scandals that people don't care if its a Minister, a SpAd, a senior official or the CPS who messed up.
They care that government dropped the ball. And to most people, it's all the government - and the government's fault.
They care that government dropped the ball. And to most people, it's all the government - and the government's fault.
October 16, 2025 at 8:51 AM
The Government hasn't learned from previous scandals that people don't care if its a Minister, a SpAd, a senior official or the CPS who messed up.
They care that government dropped the ball. And to most people, it's all the government - and the government's fault.
They care that government dropped the ball. And to most people, it's all the government - and the government's fault.
Given long-term care insurance doesn't exist in the UK, maybe don't start taxing savings until you've got that sorted?
(Though really not convinced at all of the case for why we should wish to discourage saving in the first place...).
(Though really not convinced at all of the case for why we should wish to discourage saving in the first place...).
October 15, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Given long-term care insurance doesn't exist in the UK, maybe don't start taxing savings until you've got that sorted?
(Though really not convinced at all of the case for why we should wish to discourage saving in the first place...).
(Though really not convinced at all of the case for why we should wish to discourage saving in the first place...).
Higher turnout now is favouring Reform in a way it has never disproportionately favoured a single party in the past.
Will the trend continue?
Fascinating piece in the New Statesman.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Will the trend continue?
Fascinating piece in the New Statesman.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
October 15, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Higher turnout now is favouring Reform in a way it has never disproportionately favoured a single party in the past.
Will the trend continue?
Fascinating piece in the New Statesman.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Will the trend continue?
Fascinating piece in the New Statesman.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Education under focus in the COVID Inquiry this week.
My own reflections - as a SpAd in the Department for Education at the time - are here.
School closures, exams debacle and more.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/a-tale-of-...
(Go to section 4: Covid and Lockdown).
My own reflections - as a SpAd in the Department for Education at the time - are here.
School closures, exams debacle and more.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/a-tale-of-...
(Go to section 4: Covid and Lockdown).
October 15, 2025 at 6:20 AM
Education under focus in the COVID Inquiry this week.
My own reflections - as a SpAd in the Department for Education at the time - are here.
School closures, exams debacle and more.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/a-tale-of-...
(Go to section 4: Covid and Lockdown).
My own reflections - as a SpAd in the Department for Education at the time - are here.
School closures, exams debacle and more.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/a-tale-of-...
(Go to section 4: Covid and Lockdown).