Harvir Dhillon
@harvirdhillon.bsky.social
Economist at the British Retail Consortium 🛍️
UK macro, retail and #costofliving 📈👨🏽💻🇬🇧
Opinions my own etc
Formerly Experian
Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊
UK macro, retail and #costofliving 📈👨🏽💻🇬🇧
Opinions my own etc
Formerly Experian
Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊
A lot of you like to know which food and drink products you can expect to have paid more for. Here are the top 25 movers. Not good for pizza lovers 🍕
November 19, 2025 at 7:48 AM
A lot of you like to know which food and drink products you can expect to have paid more for. Here are the top 25 movers. Not good for pizza lovers 🍕
Signal from the output PPI is of persistence though. This suggests inflationary pressures for goods leaving the factory-gate (particularly cars, food and clothing) do remain.
November 19, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Signal from the output PPI is of persistence though. This suggests inflationary pressures for goods leaving the factory-gate (particularly cars, food and clothing) do remain.
CPI doesn't fall quite as much as was expected (3.6%, down from 3.8%), primarily down to a sharp monthly increase in food prices and a lesser increase in recreation and culture.
November 19, 2025 at 7:23 AM
CPI doesn't fall quite as much as was expected (3.6%, down from 3.8%), primarily down to a sharp monthly increase in food prices and a lesser increase in recreation and culture.
Reposted by Harvir Dhillon
People in the UK: "Hold my coffee"
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)
November 18, 2025 at 8:38 AM
People in the UK: "Hold my coffee"
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)
*yoy = inflation since Labour took office
(HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)
Gosh, she's so soulless. Gaming with a corporate face, personified.
Xbox president Sarah Bond says hardware is "absolutely core to everything that we do at Xbox." Bond says the next-gen Xbox will be a "powerful experience... that also enables people to take their library with them" across PC and cloud www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P0b...
November 17, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Gosh, she's so soulless. Gaming with a corporate face, personified.
Shoppers' baskets were their heaviest since 2022, and strong retail sales performance over the past few months has manifested in resilient services performance, helping to buttress UK GDP.
November 13, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Shoppers' baskets were their heaviest since 2022, and strong retail sales performance over the past few months has manifested in resilient services performance, helping to buttress UK GDP.
How does that vary by region? Steepest falls in London, North West as well as the West Mids and South East.
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
How does that vary by region? Steepest falls in London, North West as well as the West Mids and South East.
Retail now seeing the steepest falls in payrolled employees, relative to a year ago.
November 11, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Retail now seeing the steepest falls in payrolled employees, relative to a year ago.
🛍️📉 Consumers hold back for Black Friday
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
November 11, 2025 at 8:11 AM
🛍️📉 Consumers hold back for Black Friday
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
GDP also looks a bit on the higher end. On these estimates, the UK would have grown 2%-2.2% pa between 2016 and 2024, instead of 1.2%.
Will read carefully but my immediate reaction is that an employment hit of 3-4% just looks way too high to be plausible?
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
November 10, 2025 at 1:10 PM
GDP also looks a bit on the higher end. On these estimates, the UK would have grown 2%-2.2% pa between 2016 and 2024, instead of 1.2%.
Something I've spotted from having a closer look at the detailed retail sales figures is how much growth medical goods have seen over the past 6 months or so. It's the best performing category in volumes terms. A symptom of lower NHS provision?
November 7, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Something I've spotted from having a closer look at the detailed retail sales figures is how much growth medical goods have seen over the past 6 months or so. It's the best performing category in volumes terms. A symptom of lower NHS provision?
Household consumption remains weak. Higher pay is being banked, and more is being saved for emergency funds.
November 6, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Household consumption remains weak. Higher pay is being banked, and more is being saved for emergency funds.
🦃 There's been a long-term decline in the number of turkeys being slaughtered in the UK:
October 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
🦃 There's been a long-term decline in the number of turkeys being slaughtered in the UK:
Full report is available here ⤵️
October 28, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Full report is available here ⤵️
🛍️📉 Shop Price Inflation Slows in October
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
October 28, 2025 at 8:12 AM
🛍️📉 Shop Price Inflation Slows in October
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
Good retail sales performance in the three months to September. Sales volumes rose 0.5% m-o-m which makes it four consecutive periods of monthly growth. Sales are now at their highest since July 2022.
October 24, 2025 at 6:28 AM
Good retail sales performance in the three months to September. Sales volumes rose 0.5% m-o-m which makes it four consecutive periods of monthly growth. Sales are now at their highest since July 2022.
It's now looking quite likely that UK inflation being higher compared to G7 nations was a bit of a policy-induced blip. CPI may even return to target by the middle of 2026.
Surprise drop in food prices means that the CPI remains unchanged at 3.8%. This is the first monthly decrease in food prices since May 2024.
October 22, 2025 at 6:57 AM
It's now looking quite likely that UK inflation being higher compared to G7 nations was a bit of a policy-induced blip. CPI may even return to target by the middle of 2026.
Surprise drop in food prices means that the CPI remains unchanged at 3.8%. This is the first monthly decrease in food prices since May 2024.
October 22, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Surprise drop in food prices means that the CPI remains unchanged at 3.8%. This is the first monthly decrease in food prices since May 2024.
Why are TVs getting cheaper? Mentioned here in the @thetimes.com
Prices are rising in the UK. So why do TVs keep getting cheaper?
Some types of consumer electronics are bucking the rising inflation trend — and their cost could soon drop further
www.thetimes.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Why are TVs getting cheaper? Mentioned here in the @thetimes.com
📉 Slight slowdown in retail spend as consumer caution ahead of the Autumn Budget predominates. Inflation continues to boost food sales in value terms however non-food remains subdued. Electricals still performing well, however.
Retail spending slows as Budget looms large
brc.org.uk
October 14, 2025 at 7:22 AM
📉 Slight slowdown in retail spend as consumer caution ahead of the Autumn Budget predominates. Inflation continues to boost food sales in value terms however non-food remains subdued. Electricals still performing well, however.
Brits are buying a lot more electrical appliances (replacement cycle) as well as from e-commerce platforms. Independent food shops are also growing more than supermarkets, despite inflation.
October 1, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Brits are buying a lot more electrical appliances (replacement cycle) as well as from e-commerce platforms. Independent food shops are also growing more than supermarkets, despite inflation.
Full report is available here ⤵️
September 30, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Full report is available here ⤵️
🛍️📈 Highest shop price inflation in 18 months
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering September 2025.
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering September 2025.
September 30, 2025 at 6:02 AM
🛍️📈 Highest shop price inflation in 18 months
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering September 2025.
Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering September 2025.
Inflation largely unchanged, last month. Services inflation ticked down to 4.7%, but goods inflation reached its highest since October 2023.
September 17, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Inflation largely unchanged, last month. Services inflation ticked down to 4.7%, but goods inflation reached its highest since October 2023.
Fiscal drag means that the state pension over 2025/26 is just under £100 away from being taxable.
a little girl is sitting in a car seat and making a funny face .
ALT: a little girl is sitting in a car seat and making a funny face .
media.tenor.com
September 16, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Fiscal drag means that the state pension over 2025/26 is just under £100 away from being taxable.