Harvir Dhillon
@harvirdhillon.bsky.social
Economist at the British Retail Consortium 🛍️
UK macro, retail and #costofliving 📈👨🏽💻🇬🇧
Opinions my own etc
Formerly Experian
Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊
UK macro, retail and #costofliving 📈👨🏽💻🇬🇧
Opinions my own etc
Formerly Experian
Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊
A lot of you like to know which food and drink products you can expect to have paid more for. Here are the top 25 movers. Not good for pizza lovers 🍕
November 19, 2025 at 7:48 AM
A lot of you like to know which food and drink products you can expect to have paid more for. Here are the top 25 movers. Not good for pizza lovers 🍕
Signal from the output PPI is of persistence though. This suggests inflationary pressures for goods leaving the factory-gate (particularly cars, food and clothing) do remain.
November 19, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Signal from the output PPI is of persistence though. This suggests inflationary pressures for goods leaving the factory-gate (particularly cars, food and clothing) do remain.
Onto retail categories... food was a big mover, and sent inflation back to almost 5%. Prices rose 0.5% on the month, which is 0.4 percentage points above the historical average going back to 1988. Elsewhere, discretionary categories remain subdued.
November 19, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Onto retail categories... food was a big mover, and sent inflation back to almost 5%. Prices rose 0.5% on the month, which is 0.4 percentage points above the historical average going back to 1988. Elsewhere, discretionary categories remain subdued.
Goods inflation stepped back a bit (down to 2.6%, from 2.9%) and services reached it lowest point since December last year. More broadly it looks like a picture of sticky inflation, but hopefully heading downwards sticky.
November 19, 2025 at 7:24 AM
Goods inflation stepped back a bit (down to 2.6%, from 2.9%) and services reached it lowest point since December last year. More broadly it looks like a picture of sticky inflation, but hopefully heading downwards sticky.
Shoppers' baskets were their heaviest since 2022, and strong retail sales performance over the past few months has manifested in resilient services performance, helping to buttress UK GDP.
November 13, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Shoppers' baskets were their heaviest since 2022, and strong retail sales performance over the past few months has manifested in resilient services performance, helping to buttress UK GDP.
How does that vary by region? Steepest falls in London, North West as well as the West Mids and South East.
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
How does that vary by region? Steepest falls in London, North West as well as the West Mids and South East.
Retail now seeing the steepest falls in payrolled employees, relative to a year ago.
November 11, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Retail now seeing the steepest falls in payrolled employees, relative to a year ago.
📦 Online non-food sales stalled, with growth drying up altogether. In-store non-food did slightly better, but overall demand was subdued as consumers held out for Black Friday and festive promotions.
November 11, 2025 at 8:11 AM
📦 Online non-food sales stalled, with growth drying up altogether. In-store non-food did slightly better, but overall demand was subdued as consumers held out for Black Friday and festive promotions.
👗 Non-food sales edged up just 0.1% YoY. In-store non-food sales grew 0.1%, while online sales were flat at 0.0%. Winter clothing ranges struggled in mild weather, leaving retailers cautious on price reductions and margins.
November 11, 2025 at 8:11 AM
👗 Non-food sales edged up just 0.1% YoY. In-store non-food sales grew 0.1%, while online sales were flat at 0.0%. Winter clothing ranges struggled in mild weather, leaving retailers cautious on price reductions and margins.
🥦 Food sales grew 3.5% YoY, still driven mainly by higher prices rather than volumes. Shoppers focused on saving money over quality for the first time this year, with confidence dipping and household budgets under pressure.
November 11, 2025 at 8:11 AM
🥦 Food sales grew 3.5% YoY, still driven mainly by higher prices rather than volumes. Shoppers focused on saving money over quality for the first time this year, with confidence dipping and household budgets under pressure.
🛍️📉 Consumers hold back for Black Friday
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
November 11, 2025 at 8:11 AM
🛍️📉 Consumers hold back for Black Friday
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊
Something I've spotted from having a closer look at the detailed retail sales figures is how much growth medical goods have seen over the past 6 months or so. It's the best performing category in volumes terms. A symptom of lower NHS provision?
November 7, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Something I've spotted from having a closer look at the detailed retail sales figures is how much growth medical goods have seen over the past 6 months or so. It's the best performing category in volumes terms. A symptom of lower NHS provision?
Household consumption remains weak. Higher pay is being banked, and more is being saved for emergency funds.
November 6, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Household consumption remains weak. Higher pay is being banked, and more is being saved for emergency funds.
🦃 There's been a long-term decline in the number of turkeys being slaughtered in the UK:
October 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
🦃 There's been a long-term decline in the number of turkeys being slaughtered in the UK:
UK producer price inflation rose to 3.4% (factory gate), with input costs up 0.8%. Domestic food and metals drove cost pressures, but crude oil inputs fell sharply. Services inflation remains sticky, keeping upward pressure on shop prices.
October 28, 2025 at 8:12 AM
UK producer price inflation rose to 3.4% (factory gate), with input costs up 0.8%. Domestic food and metals drove cost pressures, but crude oil inputs fell sharply. Services inflation remains sticky, keeping upward pressure on shop prices.
🌐 The FAO Food Price Index slipped in September, to 3.4% above last year but nearly 20% below its 2022 peak. Sugar, cereals, dairy, and oils all fell, while meat hit a new high. Global food price volatility remains key to observe.
October 28, 2025 at 8:12 AM
🌐 The FAO Food Price Index slipped in September, to 3.4% above last year but nearly 20% below its 2022 peak. Sugar, cereals, dairy, and oils all fell, while meat hit a new high. Global food price volatility remains key to observe.
🏷️ Non-food deflation deepened to -0.4% (from -0.1%). Electricals, clothing, and home entertainment saw further price drops, while DIY, health & beauty, and furniture posted modest gains. Retailers leaned on early promotions ahead of Black Friday.
October 28, 2025 at 8:12 AM
🏷️ Non-food deflation deepened to -0.4% (from -0.1%). Electricals, clothing, and home entertainment saw further price drops, while DIY, health & beauty, and furniture posted modest gains. Retailers leaned on early promotions ahead of Black Friday.
🍏 Food inflation fell to 3.7%, the first drop since January. Fresh food inflation rose to 4.3%, but ambient food slowed sharply to 2.9%. Wholesale dairy prices tumbled again; cheddar, butter, cream, and milk powder are all seeing double-digit deflation. 🥛🥦
October 28, 2025 at 8:12 AM
🍏 Food inflation fell to 3.7%, the first drop since January. Fresh food inflation rose to 4.3%, but ambient food slowed sharply to 2.9%. Wholesale dairy prices tumbled again; cheddar, butter, cream, and milk powder are all seeing double-digit deflation. 🥛🥦
🛍️📉 Shop Price Inflation Slows in October
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
October 28, 2025 at 8:12 AM
🛍️📉 Shop Price Inflation Slows in October
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.
If you break it down by detailed category-level, this is sales performance (values) ranked. Electricals up there, and independents as well as clothing are performing decently.
October 24, 2025 at 6:31 AM
If you break it down by detailed category-level, this is sales performance (values) ranked. Electricals up there, and independents as well as clothing are performing decently.
Non-store retail growth is something to behold, having grown 8.6% compared to the previous year. Other stores has also had a sharp monthly increase, which it's possible to attribute to the release of the iPhone 17 as well as the usual back2school electrical refresh.
October 24, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Non-store retail growth is something to behold, having grown 8.6% compared to the previous year. Other stores has also had a sharp monthly increase, which it's possible to attribute to the release of the iPhone 17 as well as the usual back2school electrical refresh.
But the sharp divergence between food and non-food sales persists. We are still buying less food than we were in 2019. Most of this growth is being led by non-food, and particularly non-store retailers. where we're buying a lot of gold.
October 24, 2025 at 6:29 AM
But the sharp divergence between food and non-food sales persists. We are still buying less food than we were in 2019. Most of this growth is being led by non-food, and particularly non-store retailers. where we're buying a lot of gold.
Good retail sales performance in the three months to September. Sales volumes rose 0.5% m-o-m which makes it four consecutive periods of monthly growth. Sales are now at their highest since July 2022.
October 24, 2025 at 6:28 AM
Good retail sales performance in the three months to September. Sales volumes rose 0.5% m-o-m which makes it four consecutive periods of monthly growth. Sales are now at their highest since July 2022.
Furniture etc was quite subdued but in isolation furniture re-entered deflation. In fact, not a bad time to get garden furniture as prices are in deep deflation. Not quite the best weather of course.
October 22, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Furniture etc was quite subdued but in isolation furniture re-entered deflation. In fact, not a bad time to get garden furniture as prices are in deep deflation. Not quite the best weather of course.
In keeping with seasonal trends, clothing inflation picked up in September but this appears to be more so down to the increasing cost of dry-cleaning (services element) whereas children's clothing did benefit form back2school price cuts.
October 22, 2025 at 6:44 AM
In keeping with seasonal trends, clothing inflation picked up in September but this appears to be more so down to the increasing cost of dry-cleaning (services element) whereas children's clothing did benefit form back2school price cuts.