Ben Hanowell
@hanowell.me
Lover of event history analysis, causal inference, Bayesian inference, and their intersection. Also a lover of representative democracy. Posts are my own thoughts. This is a personal account. In medio tuttisimus ibis.
Back in the cesspool to make this subtle comment: "Let's use the task-based framework of labor market analysis, only simplify its key insight--different tech has different impacts--into the assumption that technology merely presents an upward threshold for expertise that ain't automated."
June 11, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Back in the cesspool to make this subtle comment: "Let's use the task-based framework of labor market analysis, only simplify its key insight--different tech has different impacts--into the assumption that technology merely presents an upward threshold for expertise that ain't automated."
Yeah I’m done with this cesspool for a good while. Peace.
May 19, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Yeah I’m done with this cesspool for a good while. Peace.
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
The pivot to blaming companies for the obvious consequence of your tariffs has begun
May 17, 2025 at 2:33 PM
The pivot to blaming companies for the obvious consequence of your tariffs has begun
Lol
May 17, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Lol
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
WASH POST: “Many of the major changes DOGE pushed at Social Security have been abandoned or reversed after proving ineffective, while others are yielding unintended consequences and badly damaging customer service and satisfaction.” www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
May 17, 2025 at 12:53 PM
WASH POST: “Many of the major changes DOGE pushed at Social Security have been abandoned or reversed after proving ineffective, while others are yielding unintended consequences and badly damaging customer service and satisfaction.” www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Since I recently died of sudden cardiac arrest and was brought back to life five minutes later it makes me think about how our assumption that death is a terminal event, while convenient and mostly true, is in reality false. When I die for good, I will have died *at least twice*.
May 15, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Since I recently died of sudden cardiac arrest and was brought back to life five minutes later it makes me think about how our assumption that death is a terminal event, while convenient and mostly true, is in reality false. When I die for good, I will have died *at least twice*.
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
I am thinking a lot today about how heavy things feel in my world of faculty doing scientific research. There's the immediate chaos and panic about our ability to pay people and continue our research. But there's also a deeper grief at watching everything get bulldozed for no reason
May 15, 2025 at 2:35 AM
I am thinking a lot today about how heavy things feel in my world of faculty doing scientific research. There's the immediate chaos and panic about our ability to pay people and continue our research. But there's also a deeper grief at watching everything get bulldozed for no reason
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
Nearly every higher ed-related provision in the House’s proposed reconciliation bill will make higher ed more expensive for students. www.insidehighered.com/news/governm...
Assessing What Reconciliation Means for Higher Ed
House committees put the finishing touches on their sections of the reconciliation megabill early this week. Now, all the pieces of the puzzle are laid out, and higher ed experts say the picture is gr...
www.insidehighered.com
May 15, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Nearly every higher ed-related provision in the House’s proposed reconciliation bill will make higher ed more expensive for students. www.insidehighered.com/news/governm...
May 14, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
Sort of seems like it's not regrettable to you at all if you don't think the officer ought to regret that "just doing his job" means locking a person up arbitrarily and wrongly in a private detention center.
May 14, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Sort of seems like it's not regrettable to you at all if you don't think the officer ought to regret that "just doing his job" means locking a person up arbitrarily and wrongly in a private detention center.
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
Yesterday, the NIH R35 “Outstanding Investigator” grant to fund scientists in my lab studying antibiotic resistance was terminated for reasons not related to the content of the science, or any actions taken by me or members of my lab
May 13, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Yesterday, the NIH R35 “Outstanding Investigator” grant to fund scientists in my lab studying antibiotic resistance was terminated for reasons not related to the content of the science, or any actions taken by me or members of my lab
My number of followers is meaningful only in the sense that it’s like only twice the number of people that Robin Dunbar purports with scant evidence that humans could possibly know personally.
I'm curious -- if you've got some meaningful number of followers, how did you get them? Was it consistent growth or did you put out some crazy banger? New work or job association?
Mine:
Mine:
May 14, 2025 at 3:06 AM
My number of followers is meaningful only in the sense that it’s like only twice the number of people that Robin Dunbar purports with scant evidence that humans could possibly know personally.
No Twitter users are not okay. Neither are BlueSky users.
May 13, 2025 at 4:51 PM
No Twitter users are not okay. Neither are BlueSky users.
It’s a hipster cliche at this point. But yes, I am a liberal white man from a large west coast metropolitan area and I do love the show Mo.
May 13, 2025 at 6:16 AM
It’s a hipster cliche at this point. But yes, I am a liberal white man from a large west coast metropolitan area and I do love the show Mo.
“Please lower prices. For reasons.”
May 12, 2025 at 7:40 PM
“Please lower prices. For reasons.”
This is not an AI hate post. Do not interpret it like that. Interpret it at face value.
Good god I want to talk about something technical other than generative AI.
May 12, 2025 at 5:06 PM
This is not an AI hate post. Do not interpret it like that. Interpret it at face value.
Here is a thought: Arguments about which president is worse or better are a waste of time when we should be concentrating on what current presidents are doing that we either want to encourage or discourage.
May 12, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Here is a thought: Arguments about which president is worse or better are a waste of time when we should be concentrating on what current presidents are doing that we either want to encourage or discourage.
I told my daughter about the fundamental problem of causal inference and it blew her beautiful young mind.
Hell yeah.
Hell yeah.
May 12, 2025 at 3:45 AM
I told my daughter about the fundamental problem of causal inference and it blew her beautiful young mind.
Hell yeah.
Hell yeah.
Good god I want to talk about something technical other than generative AI.
May 12, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Good god I want to talk about something technical other than generative AI.
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
Sen. John Barrasso leaves the door open to voting to support the suspension of Habeas Corpus
May 11, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Sen. John Barrasso leaves the door open to voting to support the suspension of Habeas Corpus
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
Thanks to everybody who chimed in!
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
May 11, 2025 at 5:34 AM
Thanks to everybody who chimed in!
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
pulling a critique of the bell curve from a university library but not the bell curve is as concise a way i can think of to describe the goal of the speech discourse in the past 15 years
You’re allowed to argue that black people and women are genetically inferior. But you’re NOT allowed to argue they are NOT inferior because that’s divisive. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/u...
May 11, 2025 at 12:59 AM
pulling a critique of the bell curve from a university library but not the bell curve is as concise a way i can think of to describe the goal of the speech discourse in the past 15 years
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
Having now watched the footage and interview two of the members who were there, the amount of armed, masked federal agents surrounding three members of Congress and a mayor outside the ICE facility was totally unnecessary; the only possible reason for it was intentional escalation and intimidation.
May 10, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Having now watched the footage and interview two of the members who were there, the amount of armed, masked federal agents surrounding three members of Congress and a mayor outside the ICE facility was totally unnecessary; the only possible reason for it was intentional escalation and intimidation.
Reposted by Ben Hanowell
Good thing we have <checks notes> a non-functioning state led by a mad king authoritarian. I'm sure they will help prevent this conflict from getting out of control.
All this said, while the probability (in absolute terms) of nuclear use is low, my own subjective probability estimate is that it is higher here than it was at the start of Russia's war on Ukraine, or in any other post-Cold War conflict I can think of (including the 1999 India-Pakistan war). <11>
May 10, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Good thing we have <checks notes> a non-functioning state led by a mad king authoritarian. I'm sure they will help prevent this conflict from getting out of control.