Guntram Wolff
@guntramwolff.bsky.social
Professor of economics at Free University Brussels (ULB) and Bruegel fellow. European integration, climate, defence- and geoeconomics, macro; Frmr Director @dgap.org & @bruegel.org
RT ≠ endorsement
RT ≠ endorsement
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
Senator Kelly is correct.
Plus a Public Service Announcement:
KEY section of Department of Defense's Law of War Manual is 18.3.2.1.
The VERY rule on the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders gives as its paradigmatic example of what is "clearly illegal:
"orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."
Plus a Public Service Announcement:
KEY section of Department of Defense's Law of War Manual is 18.3.2.1.
The VERY rule on the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders gives as its paradigmatic example of what is "clearly illegal:
"orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."
November 30, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Senator Kelly is correct.
Plus a Public Service Announcement:
KEY section of Department of Defense's Law of War Manual is 18.3.2.1.
The VERY rule on the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders gives as its paradigmatic example of what is "clearly illegal:
"orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."
Plus a Public Service Announcement:
KEY section of Department of Defense's Law of War Manual is 18.3.2.1.
The VERY rule on the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders gives as its paradigmatic example of what is "clearly illegal:
"orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
Mark Kelly on the Trump/Hegseth boat strikes: "If orders are illegal, not only do they not have to follow them, they are legally required not to follow them."
November 30, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Mark Kelly on the Trump/Hegseth boat strikes: "If orders are illegal, not only do they not have to follow them, they are legally required not to follow them."
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
🎙️ Ukraine talks: peace progress or dead end?
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses Ukraine peace talks with @veron.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, and how the EU can manage the high-stakes standoff between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington. #EconSky
Listen here:
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses Ukraine peace talks with @veron.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, and how the EU can manage the high-stakes standoff between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington. #EconSky
Listen here:
Ukraine talks: peace progress or dead end?
How should the EU manage negotiations with Ukraine, the US and Russia?
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 11:00 AM
🎙️ Ukraine talks: peace progress or dead end?
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses Ukraine peace talks with @veron.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, and how the EU can manage the high-stakes standoff between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington. #EconSky
Listen here:
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses Ukraine peace talks with @veron.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, and how the EU can manage the high-stakes standoff between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington. #EconSky
Listen here:
"Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very tough choice. -Either the loss of our dignity or the risk of losing a key partner. " Zelenskyy
---> Let's all be honest here: the key partner has been lost for some time.
---> Let's all be honest here: the key partner has been lost for some time.
Christopher Miller on X: "Full English text of Zelensky's address to the Ukrainian nation tonight in Kyiv, via the presidential office: Ukrainians! There comes a moment in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk things through. Honestly. Calmly. Without speculation, rumors, gossip, without" / X
Full English text of Zelensky's address to the Ukrainian nation tonight in Kyiv, via the presidential office: Ukrainians! There comes a moment in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk things through. Honestly. Calmly. Without speculation, rumors, gossip, without
x.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:24 PM
"Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very tough choice. -Either the loss of our dignity or the risk of losing a key partner. " Zelenskyy
---> Let's all be honest here: the key partner has been lost for some time.
---> Let's all be honest here: the key partner has been lost for some time.
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
🪖 Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008
✈️ What are the trends and values of United States Foreign Military Sales, and how have they changed over time?
🖊️ By @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social, @javier-ospital.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social
🔗 buff.ly/VuzCafe
#EconSky
✈️ What are the trends and values of United States Foreign Military Sales, and how have they changed over time?
🖊️ By @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social, @javier-ospital.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social
🔗 buff.ly/VuzCafe
#EconSky
Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008: an analysis of a new dataset
The paper presents a new dataset of all US Foreign Military Sales since 2008 and analyses global trends in volumes and equipment types
buff.ly
November 7, 2025 at 1:00 PM
🪖 Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008
✈️ What are the trends and values of United States Foreign Military Sales, and how have they changed over time?
🖊️ By @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social, @javier-ospital.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social
🔗 buff.ly/VuzCafe
#EconSky
✈️ What are the trends and values of United States Foreign Military Sales, and how have they changed over time?
🖊️ By @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social, @javier-ospital.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social
🔗 buff.ly/VuzCafe
#EconSky
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
If your government thinks the Pope “doesn’t know what he’s talking about” when he defends migrants’ dignity, the world should see the warning sign. The US is no longer leading on human rights. It’s suppressing them.
November 5, 2025 at 7:12 AM
If your government thinks the Pope “doesn’t know what he’s talking about” when he defends migrants’ dignity, the world should see the warning sign. The US is no longer leading on human rights. It’s suppressing them.
Guntram Wolff is sceptical that churning out more tanks or artillery will bring long-term economic gains. However, if European governments direct their money towards new technologies, this will “have broader economic benefits”. Time to modernise armed forces @bruegel.org
www.ft.com/content/ec99...
www.ft.com/content/ec99...
Will higher defence spending boost the European economy?
Deindustrialising regions hope for investment and jobs, but much will depend on how the extra money is spent
www.ft.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Guntram Wolff is sceptical that churning out more tanks or artillery will bring long-term economic gains. However, if European governments direct their money towards new technologies, this will “have broader economic benefits”. Time to modernise armed forces @bruegel.org
www.ft.com/content/ec99...
www.ft.com/content/ec99...
my quotes in @guardian “Historically, there’s this notion that greater defence cooperation is questionable for sovereignty...But the counter argument is that we have a huge dependency on the US. ... sovereignty doesn’t sit in Europe – it’s in Washington.”
www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
Armed by America: how Europe’s militaries depend on the US – a visual analysis
The EU wants independence on defence but it is buying thousands of weapons from the US each year
www.theguardian.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:10 PM
my quotes in @guardian “Historically, there’s this notion that greater defence cooperation is questionable for sovereignty...But the counter argument is that we have a huge dependency on the US. ... sovereignty doesn’t sit in Europe – it’s in Washington.”
www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
Im Europamagazin des ARD wurde ich zum europäischen Klimaschutz befragt. Danke für das Interview
November 3, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Im Europamagazin des ARD wurde ich zum europäischen Klimaschutz befragt. Danke für das Interview
Fossil fuel use continues to climb, despite the growth of renewables. Bad news in today's Financial Times newsletter
October 29, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Fossil fuel use continues to climb, despite the growth of renewables. Bad news in today's Financial Times newsletter
It was a pleasure discussing in Berlin why Europe needs to invest in its domestic military industrial technological base - and why Germany's trust in the US is naive. A great Franco-German panel with a Polish chair.
We thank our panelists @gregclaeys.bsky.social, Thomas Röwekamp, @sabine-thillaye.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social as well as our moderator Monika Sus and Ambassador Delattre for this insightful debate! You can watch the full #PariserPlatzDialogue event here👉 www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovIx...
Research meets Politics: How should we invest in European defence? A Franco-German Perspective
YouTube video by Hertie School
www.youtube.com
October 17, 2025 at 7:06 AM
It was a pleasure discussing in Berlin why Europe needs to invest in its domestic military industrial technological base - and why Germany's trust in the US is naive. A great Franco-German panel with a Polish chair.
Aktuelles Interview in "Die Presse" in Österreich
Vergangene Woche besuchte uns @guntramwolff.bsky.social und referierte über die Aussichten der europäischen Aufrüstung im Angesicht der russischen Bedrohung. Dabei entstand dieses bemerkenswerte Interview mit ihm.
www.diepresse.com/20183906/wir...
www.diepresse.com/20183906/wir...
„Wir müssen den Krieg von morgen gewinnen, nicht den von gestern“
Europa muss sparen und zugleich viel Geld in seine Aufrüstung stecken. Guntram Wolff hat Ideen, wie sich das Dilemma lösen lässt. Der ehemalige Bruegel-Chef über Wege aus der europäischen...
www.diepresse.com
October 17, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Aktuelles Interview in "Die Presse" in Österreich
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
@guntramwolff.bsky.social from @ulbruxelles.bsky.social points out how much of European defence equipment works with US software: "While on the one hand, we're increasing our capabilities, on the other hand we're also increasing our dependencies." #ResearchMeetsPolitics
October 15, 2025 at 1:11 PM
@guntramwolff.bsky.social from @ulbruxelles.bsky.social points out how much of European defence equipment works with US software: "While on the one hand, we're increasing our capabilities, on the other hand we're also increasing our dependencies." #ResearchMeetsPolitics
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
🎙️ Climate, data and complacency 🌍
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses the cost of climate change with @heathergrabbe.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, highlighting the ways in which it will affect insurance, housing and GDP. #EconSky
👂 Listen to the podcast:
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses the cost of climate change with @heathergrabbe.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, highlighting the ways in which it will affect insurance, housing and GDP. #EconSky
👂 Listen to the podcast:
Climate, data and complacency
Why economists need to take the costs of climate change more seriously
buff.ly
October 15, 2025 at 2:30 PM
🎙️ Climate, data and complacency 🌍
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses the cost of climate change with @heathergrabbe.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, highlighting the ways in which it will affect insurance, housing and GDP. #EconSky
👂 Listen to the podcast:
@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses the cost of climate change with @heathergrabbe.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, highlighting the ways in which it will affect insurance, housing and GDP. #EconSky
👂 Listen to the podcast:
Very much looking forward to this debate. I will speak also about our most recent paper on Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales and what to do about it www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
October 13, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Very much looking forward to this debate. I will speak also about our most recent paper on Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales and what to do about it www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
"European purchases of US arms hit a record high of $76bn 2024, according to a @bruegel.org paper authored by Juan Mejino-López & Guntram Wolff, who analysed 1,179 notifications under the US Foreign Military Sales programme since 2008."
@financialtimes.com Henry Foy
www.ft.com/content/4131...
@financialtimes.com Henry Foy
www.ft.com/content/4131...
Poland demands Germany stop Nord Stream attack prosecutions
Also in this newsletter: How to end Europe’s dangerous reliance on US weapons
www.ft.com
October 13, 2025 at 7:11 AM
"European purchases of US arms hit a record high of $76bn 2024, according to a @bruegel.org paper authored by Juan Mejino-López & Guntram Wolff, who analysed 1,179 notifications under the US Foreign Military Sales programme since 2008."
@financialtimes.com Henry Foy
www.ft.com/content/4131...
@financialtimes.com Henry Foy
www.ft.com/content/4131...
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.
🧵 1/7
🧵 1/7
October 10, 2025 at 9:01 AM
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.
🧵 1/7
🧵 1/7
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
Fascinating lecture today by @guntramwolff.bsky.social on how the 🇪🇺 can make its rearmament credible, effective & affordable given the challenge posed by 🇷🇺. Key points: build a common defence market, pool industrial capacities, boost R&D to reduce reliance on the US for strategic technologies.
October 8, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Fascinating lecture today by @guntramwolff.bsky.social on how the 🇪🇺 can make its rearmament credible, effective & affordable given the challenge posed by 🇷🇺. Key points: build a common defence market, pool industrial capacities, boost R&D to reduce reliance on the US for strategic technologies.
Mit offensiven Raketen abschrecken --- A Burilkov und ich argumentieren, warum reine Luftverteidigung nicht mehr ausreicht und Europa Kapazitäten zur Abschreckung durch Stärke benötigt. Und wie man diese aufbauen kann
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
Europa muss Putin mit offensiven Rakten abschrecken
Eine Luftabwehr, die sich auf Drohnenabschuss beschränkt, reicht nicht aus, um Putin abzuschrecken. Dazu braucht Europa Marschflugkörper und Hyperschallraketen, die tief in russisches Territorium vord...
www.faz.net
September 29, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Mit offensiven Raketen abschrecken --- A Burilkov und ich argumentieren, warum reine Luftverteidigung nicht mehr ausreicht und Europa Kapazitäten zur Abschreckung durch Stärke benötigt. Und wie man diese aufbauen kann
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
📸 Eben beim #Industriepolitik-Panel bei der #VfS_Conf2025 @vfsecon.bsky.social
💟 Danke @guntramwolff.bsky.social, @monika-schnitzer.com, @sdullien.bsky.social, Michael #Hüther und Beate #Baron (Moderation: @kbiesenbender.bsky.social).
🏭 Vertiefung ⤵️
www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...
💟 Danke @guntramwolff.bsky.social, @monika-schnitzer.com, @sdullien.bsky.social, Michael #Hüther und Beate #Baron (Moderation: @kbiesenbender.bsky.social).
🏭 Vertiefung ⤵️
www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...
September 16, 2025 at 1:31 PM
📸 Eben beim #Industriepolitik-Panel bei der #VfS_Conf2025 @vfsecon.bsky.social
💟 Danke @guntramwolff.bsky.social, @monika-schnitzer.com, @sdullien.bsky.social, Michael #Hüther und Beate #Baron (Moderation: @kbiesenbender.bsky.social).
🏭 Vertiefung ⤵️
www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...
💟 Danke @guntramwolff.bsky.social, @monika-schnitzer.com, @sdullien.bsky.social, Michael #Hüther und Beate #Baron (Moderation: @kbiesenbender.bsky.social).
🏭 Vertiefung ⤵️
www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
NATO members Romania and Poland scramble jet, Poland closes airport over Russian drones. One Russian war drone went sightseeing for 50 minutes in Romania.
Totally predictable outcome, a direct result of Europe's ongoing cowardice.
kyivindependent.com/romania-scra...
Totally predictable outcome, a direct result of Europe's ongoing cowardice.
kyivindependent.com/romania-scra...
Romania scrambles jets, Poland closes airport over Russian drone alerts
"Russian military personnel know exactly where their drones are headed and how long they can stay in the air," President Volodymyr Zelensky said, commenting on the attacks. "The routes are always calc...
kyivindependent.com
September 13, 2025 at 9:05 PM
NATO members Romania and Poland scramble jet, Poland closes airport over Russian drones. One Russian war drone went sightseeing for 50 minutes in Romania.
Totally predictable outcome, a direct result of Europe's ongoing cowardice.
kyivindependent.com/romania-scra...
Totally predictable outcome, a direct result of Europe's ongoing cowardice.
kyivindependent.com/romania-scra...
Today, a difficult State of the Union address. #SOTEU . From defence to trade and the weak economy and the continued political fragility in France: what will the Commission President say?
September 10, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Today, a difficult State of the Union address. #SOTEU . From defence to trade and the weak economy and the continued political fragility in France: what will the Commission President say?
Interview im #Deutschlandfunk zur politischen Krise in Frankreich und ihren ökonomischen Folgen. Frankreich muss seinen Haushalt sanieren, aber das wird kaum gelingen ohne einen breiteren gesellschaftlichen Konsens. Den sehe ich noch nicht.
www.deutschlandfunk.de/oekonomische...
www.deutschlandfunk.de/oekonomische...
Frankreich - nterview mit Ökonom Guntram Wolff zu ökonomischen Folgen der Krise
www.deutschlandfunk.de
September 10, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Interview im #Deutschlandfunk zur politischen Krise in Frankreich und ihren ökonomischen Folgen. Frankreich muss seinen Haushalt sanieren, aber das wird kaum gelingen ohne einen breiteren gesellschaftlichen Konsens. Den sehe ich noch nicht.
www.deutschlandfunk.de/oekonomische...
www.deutschlandfunk.de/oekonomische...
No surprise here as Elbridge Colby had announced multiple times that he wants to de-prioritize weapon shipments to Europe: Ukraine battles air defence shortage as Pentagon slows shipments www.ft.com/content/26df...
Ukraine battles air defence shortage as Pentagon slows shipments
Moscow has stepped up attacks during Trump’s attempts to broker a peace deal, heaping pressure on Kyiv’s stocks
www.ft.com
September 9, 2025 at 7:50 AM
No surprise here as Elbridge Colby had announced multiple times that he wants to de-prioritize weapon shipments to Europe: Ukraine battles air defence shortage as Pentagon slows shipments www.ft.com/content/26df...
Reposted by Guntram Wolff
❗ LIVE NOW: The future of Europe’s defence
🔗 buff.ly/VQS0Bks
🗣️ @guntramwolff.bsky.social, Bertrand Dumont (French Treasury), @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & @simonassatunas.bsky.social @ec.europa.eu
🔗 buff.ly/VQS0Bks
🗣️ @guntramwolff.bsky.social, Bertrand Dumont (French Treasury), @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & @simonassatunas.bsky.social @ec.europa.eu
September 3, 2025 at 8:45 AM
❗ LIVE NOW: The future of Europe’s defence
🔗 buff.ly/VQS0Bks
🗣️ @guntramwolff.bsky.social, Bertrand Dumont (French Treasury), @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & @simonassatunas.bsky.social @ec.europa.eu
🔗 buff.ly/VQS0Bks
🗣️ @guntramwolff.bsky.social, Bertrand Dumont (French Treasury), @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & @simonassatunas.bsky.social @ec.europa.eu