wiiw
@wiiw.ac.at
Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) www.wiiw.ac.at
EU integration, Macroeconomics, Labour markets, International economics, Industrial studies, Labour markets, Regional studies & more
Focus on Central, Eastern & Southeastern Europe
EU integration, Macroeconomics, Labour markets, International economics, Industrial studies, Labour markets, Regional studies & more
Focus on Central, Eastern & Southeastern Europe
Pinned
wiiw
@wiiw.ac.at
· 6d
Hot off the press: Our new Winter Forecast for 23 countries in Eastern Europe, 2026-2028. Region shows solid growth despite uncertainties and a challenging international environment. #Ukraine’s economy faces a difficult future, while #Russia is in stagnation.
🧵#Thread 1/12
🧵#Thread 1/12
Auch die @faznet.bsky.social widmet unserer neuen Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa eine größere Geschichte: Die politischen Unsicherheiten im Osten Europas bleiben, das Wachstum aber auch. Deutsche Investoren möchten ihr Engagement in der Region wieder ausbauen.
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
Deutsche Betriebe stärken Osteuropa-Engagement
Die politischen Unsicherheiten im Osten Europas bleiben, das Wachstum aber auch. Deutsche Investoren ziehen daraus bereits ihre Schlüsse.
www.faz.net
February 10, 2026 at 10:13 AM
Auch die @faznet.bsky.social widmet unserer neuen Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa eine größere Geschichte: Die politischen Unsicherheiten im Osten Europas bleiben, das Wachstum aber auch. Deutsche Investoren möchten ihr Engagement in der Region wieder ausbauen.
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
Große Story in der Tageszeitung @diepressecom.bsky.social über unsere neue Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa mit Einschätzungen von Ukraine-Expertin Olga Pindyuk und Russland-Experte Vasily Astrov.
Auch online: ➡️ www.diepresse.com/20546387/wac...
Auch online: ➡️ www.diepresse.com/20546387/wac...
February 5, 2026 at 11:52 AM
Große Story in der Tageszeitung @diepressecom.bsky.social über unsere neue Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa mit Einschätzungen von Ukraine-Expertin Olga Pindyuk und Russland-Experte Vasily Astrov.
Auch online: ➡️ www.diepresse.com/20546387/wac...
Auch online: ➡️ www.diepresse.com/20546387/wac...
Reposted by wiiw
Aufhebung der EU-Sanktionen würde Irans BIP langfristig um mehr als 80% steigern. Gleichzeitig könnte BIP in EU & AT um 0,3% bzw. 0,5% wachsen. @gfelbermayr.bsky.social @heiderkariem.bsky.social @mghodsi.bsky.social #RobertStehrer @wiiw.ac.at @yotoyotov.bsky.social für @insm.de buff.ly/Jg5aELp
February 5, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Aufhebung der EU-Sanktionen würde Irans BIP langfristig um mehr als 80% steigern. Gleichzeitig könnte BIP in EU & AT um 0,3% bzw. 0,5% wachsen. @gfelbermayr.bsky.social @heiderkariem.bsky.social @mghodsi.bsky.social #RobertStehrer @wiiw.ac.at @yotoyotov.bsky.social für @insm.de buff.ly/Jg5aELp
The full Winter Forecast 2026 with the latest updates on the economies of 23 countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) is available upon request. For wiiw members it is available free of charge. Thank you for following along. 12/12
wiiw.ac.at/monthly-repo...
wiiw.ac.at/monthly-repo...
Monthly Report No. 1/2026 (publication)
Winter Forecast Update All eyes on investment as geopolitical pressures mount Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2026-28 The Winter 2026...
wiiw.ac.at
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
The full Winter Forecast 2026 with the latest updates on the economies of 23 countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) is available upon request. For wiiw members it is available free of charge. Thank you for following along. 12/12
wiiw.ac.at/monthly-repo...
wiiw.ac.at/monthly-repo...
An end to the war against 🇺🇦 would immediately result in a demand shock for 🇷🇺, due to the elimination of spending on soldiers’ wages and compensations for their families (2% of GDP). In the medium term, however, 🇷🇺 would benefit from the easing or lifting of US sanctions. 11/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
An end to the war against 🇺🇦 would immediately result in a demand shock for 🇷🇺, due to the elimination of spending on soldiers’ wages and compensations for their families (2% of GDP). In the medium term, however, 🇷🇺 would benefit from the easing or lifting of US sanctions. 11/12
#Russia is nearly stagnating. This year, the economy is likely to grow by only 1.2%, in 2027 by 1.5%. The main reasons for the slump in growth are the central bank’s overly restrictive monetary policy as well as low oil prices and meagre investment. 10/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
#Russia is nearly stagnating. This year, the economy is likely to grow by only 1.2%, in 2027 by 1.5%. The main reasons for the slump in growth are the central bank’s overly restrictive monetary policy as well as low oil prices and meagre investment. 10/12
Even with firm security guarantees, recovery after the war is likely to be difficult for #Ukraine – despite the fact, that in this case it would probably be integrated more rapidly into the EU. This is the result of a background analysis on the country’s economic prospects. 9/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
Even with firm security guarantees, recovery after the war is likely to be difficult for #Ukraine – despite the fact, that in this case it would probably be integrated more rapidly into the EU. This is the result of a background analysis on the country’s economic prospects. 9/12
#Ukraine increasingly suffers economically from Russia’s aggression. We assume that the war and its adverse economic effects will continue until 2028. Growth is expected to be only 2.5% in 2026 - a further downward revision by 0.5 percentage points. 8/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
#Ukraine increasingly suffers economically from Russia’s aggression. We assume that the war and its adverse economic effects will continue until 2028. Growth is expected to be only 2.5% in 2026 - a further downward revision by 0.5 percentage points. 8/12
High budget deficits in some countries, particularly #Romania, #Hungary, #Poland and #Slovakia, pose risks. They could force them to implement growth-dampening austerity measures in the event of turmoil on the bond markets. Romania is already having to pursue such a policy. 7/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
The relative #trade weakness of CESEE since Covid is obvious; the region has been hit worse than most of the rest of the world. Lower US demand for European industrial products due to further tariffs on imports from the EU could indirectly drag the region down further. 6/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
The relative #trade weakness of CESEE since Covid is obvious; the region has been hit worse than most of the rest of the world. Lower US demand for European industrial products due to further tariffs on imports from the EU could indirectly drag the region down further. 6/12
EU RRF funds must be used by August 2026 — or lost. 🇱🇹 & 🇭🇷 have nearly exhausted their allocations, but much of EU-CEE still hasn’t. 🇭🇺 (<16%) and 🇷🇴 (37%) lag badly, and for 🇭🇺, unlocking the funds before the deadline looks unlikely — even with a change of government. 5/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
EU RRF funds must be used by August 2026 — or lost. 🇱🇹 & 🇭🇷 have nearly exhausted their allocations, but much of EU-CEE still hasn’t. 🇭🇺 (<16%) and 🇷🇴 (37%) lag badly, and for 🇭🇺, unlocking the funds before the deadline looks unlikely — even with a change of government. 5/12
The Eastern EU countries’ economic model is undergoing a fundamental structural change: investment by private companies and the public sector is expected to gain importance, while private consumption diminishes due to real wage growth cooling. 4/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
The Eastern EU countries’ economic model is undergoing a fundamental structural change: investment by private companies and the public sector is expected to gain importance, while private consumption diminishes due to real wage growth cooling. 4/12
🇵🇱 is once again the growth leader among the Eastern EU members, both 2026 (3.7%) and 2027 (3.2%). In #Hungary, where parliamentary elections in April could cost Premier Viktor Orbán his post, the economy is picking up again after stagnating last year (2026: 2.2%; 2027: 2.5%). 3/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
🇵🇱 is once again the growth leader among the Eastern EU members, both 2026 (3.7%) and 2027 (3.2%). In #Hungary, where parliamentary elections in April could cost Premier Viktor Orbán his post, the economy is picking up again after stagnating last year (2026: 2.2%; 2027: 2.5%). 3/12
All in all, we forecast average growth of 2.6% for the EU member states in the region in 2026 – as expected last autumn. It is likely to be similarly high in 2027, at 2.7%. Compared to the autumn forecast, this is a slight upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2027. 2/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
All in all, we forecast average growth of 2.6% for the EU member states in the region in 2026 – as expected last autumn. It is likely to be similarly high in 2027, at 2.7%. Compared to the autumn forecast, this is a slight upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2027. 2/12
Hot off the press: Our new Winter Forecast for 23 countries in Eastern Europe, 2026-2028. Region shows solid growth despite uncertainties and a challenging international environment. #Ukraine’s economy faces a difficult future, while #Russia is in stagnation.
🧵#Thread 1/12
🧵#Thread 1/12
February 4, 2026 at 3:23 PM
Hot off the press: Our new Winter Forecast for 23 countries in Eastern Europe, 2026-2028. Region shows solid growth despite uncertainties and a challenging international environment. #Ukraine’s economy faces a difficult future, while #Russia is in stagnation.
🧵#Thread 1/12
🧵#Thread 1/12
Zusammengenommen werden die 23 Staaten in Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropa 2026 den größten Beitrag zum österreichischen BIP-Wachstum unter allen Handelspartnern leisten. Damit ist die Region für Österreich wichtiger als Deutschland, die USA oder China.
wiiw.ac.at/osteuropa-is...
wiiw.ac.at/osteuropa-is...
Osteuropa ist Österreichs wichtigster Handelspartner und bringt kräftige Wachstumsimpulse (news article)
Zusammengenommen werden die 23 Staaten in Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropa 2026 den größten Beitrag zum...
wiiw.ac.at
February 4, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Zusammengenommen werden die 23 Staaten in Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropa 2026 den größten Beitrag zum österreichischen BIP-Wachstum unter allen Handelspartnern leisten. Damit ist die Region für Österreich wichtiger als Deutschland, die USA oder China.
wiiw.ac.at/osteuropa-is...
wiiw.ac.at/osteuropa-is...
Reposted by wiiw
Die Menschen im Iran kämpfen mutig unter großen Verlusten für einen Regime-Change. Dieser würde nicht nur die Menschenrechtslage deutlich verbessern, sondern auch den Wohlstand - im Iran, aber sogar bei uns. Die FAZ berichtet dazu exklusiv ⬇️
February 4, 2026 at 9:20 AM
Die Menschen im Iran kämpfen mutig unter großen Verlusten für einen Regime-Change. Dieser würde nicht nur die Menschenrechtslage deutlich verbessern, sondern auch den Wohlstand - im Iran, aber sogar bei uns. Die FAZ berichtet dazu exklusiv ⬇️
Das ganze Interview mit @marioholzner.bsky.social zu unserer neuen Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa auf ORF.at: Insgesamt ist die Region für Österreichs Wirtschaft wichtiger als Deutschland oder die USA. Die Ukraine und Russland leiden beide unter Putins Angriffskrieg.
📺 orf.at/av/video/new...
📺 orf.at/av/video/new...
February 4, 2026 at 11:04 AM
Das ganze Interview mit @marioholzner.bsky.social zu unserer neuen Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa auf ORF.at: Insgesamt ist die Region für Österreichs Wirtschaft wichtiger als Deutschland oder die USA. Die Ukraine und Russland leiden beide unter Putins Angriffskrieg.
📺 orf.at/av/video/new...
📺 orf.at/av/video/new...
Unsere neue Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa heute am Cover des deutschen HANDELSBLATT. Putins Angriffskrieg trifft die ukrainische Wirtschaft hart. Dennoch wächst sie doppelt so stark wie die russische – ein Sektor könnte zum Wachstumstreiber werden.
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
February 4, 2026 at 10:41 AM
Unsere neue Konjunkturprognose für Osteuropa heute am Cover des deutschen HANDELSBLATT. Putins Angriffskrieg trifft die ukrainische Wirtschaft hart. Dennoch wächst sie doppelt so stark wie die russische – ein Sektor könnte zum Wachstumstreiber werden.
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
Direktor @marioholzner.bsky.social erklärt als Live-Gast im ORF Ö1 Journal um 8 Uhr unsere neue Konjkunkturprognose für Osteuropa und warum die Region für Österreichs Wirtschaft so wichtig ist.
🎧 oe1.orf.at/player/20260...
#cee #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Russia
🎧 oe1.orf.at/player/20260...
#cee #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Russia
February 4, 2026 at 9:41 AM
Direktor @marioholzner.bsky.social erklärt als Live-Gast im ORF Ö1 Journal um 8 Uhr unsere neue Konjkunkturprognose für Osteuropa und warum die Region für Österreichs Wirtschaft so wichtig ist.
🎧 oe1.orf.at/player/20260...
#cee #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Russia
🎧 oe1.orf.at/player/20260...
#cee #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Russia
Our new winter #forecast for Eastern Europe: The region shows solid growth despite uncertainties. Structural change in #CEE in full swing, while Trump, budget deficits, and a dictated peace in #Ukraine pose risks; 🇺🇦 faces a difficult future, 🇷🇺’s economy is stagnating.
wiiw.ac.at/n-715.html
wiiw.ac.at/n-715.html
Winter forecast for Eastern Europe: Solid growth despite uncertainties (news article)
Structural change in Central and Eastern Europe is in full swing, while Trump, budget deficits and a dictated peace in Ukraine pose risks; Ukraine...
wiiw.ac.at
February 4, 2026 at 9:11 AM
Our new winter #forecast for Eastern Europe: The region shows solid growth despite uncertainties. Structural change in #CEE in full swing, while Trump, budget deficits, and a dictated peace in #Ukraine pose risks; 🇺🇦 faces a difficult future, 🇷🇺’s economy is stagnating.
wiiw.ac.at/n-715.html
wiiw.ac.at/n-715.html
🎧 New PODCAST: In the 2nd episode of the brand new
#CEE Exchange #podcast, part of wiiw’s Executive Network, Executive Director @marioholzner.bsky.social & Deputy Director Richard Grieveson discuss the geopolitical and economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe in 2026.
wiiw.ac.at/n-714.html
#CEE Exchange #podcast, part of wiiw’s Executive Network, Executive Director @marioholzner.bsky.social & Deputy Director Richard Grieveson discuss the geopolitical and economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe in 2026.
wiiw.ac.at/n-714.html
New Podcast - CEE Outlook 2026: Making Decisions Amid Uncertainty (news article)
In the latest episode of the CEE Exchange podcast, part of wiiw’s Executive Network, Executive Director Mario Holzner and Deputy Director...
wiiw.ac.at
February 3, 2026 at 11:20 AM
🎧 New PODCAST: In the 2nd episode of the brand new
#CEE Exchange #podcast, part of wiiw’s Executive Network, Executive Director @marioholzner.bsky.social & Deputy Director Richard Grieveson discuss the geopolitical and economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe in 2026.
wiiw.ac.at/n-714.html
#CEE Exchange #podcast, part of wiiw’s Executive Network, Executive Director @marioholzner.bsky.social & Deputy Director Richard Grieveson discuss the geopolitical and economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe in 2026.
wiiw.ac.at/n-714.html
"Albanien ist wahrscheinlich das einzige Land in der Region, das eine nennenswerte Justizreform durchgezogen hat. Es gibt dort faire Gerichtsverfahren", sagt @marioholzner.bsky.social im ORFIII-Interview. Ein EU-Beitritt des Landes wäre aus seiner Sicht sinnvoll.
📺(01:57)➡️ on.orf.at/video/143089...
📺(01:57)➡️ on.orf.at/video/143089...
January 30, 2026 at 3:49 PM
"Albanien ist wahrscheinlich das einzige Land in der Region, das eine nennenswerte Justizreform durchgezogen hat. Es gibt dort faire Gerichtsverfahren", sagt @marioholzner.bsky.social im ORFIII-Interview. Ein EU-Beitritt des Landes wäre aus seiner Sicht sinnvoll.
📺(01:57)➡️ on.orf.at/video/143089...
📺(01:57)➡️ on.orf.at/video/143089...
His paper with co-author Tim de Leeuw has just been published in an international top journal. 2/2
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
How does FDI transmit into domestic investment? Exploring intra-industry and financial channels
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is often seen as a means to boost domestic investment and, hence, capital accumulation. Yet, the empirical support for…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 30, 2026 at 1:54 PM
His paper with co-author Tim de Leeuw has just been published in an international top journal. 2/2
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
New research by our associated economist Konstantin Wacker sheds light on how foreign direct investment by multinational firms translates into domestic investment. The financial system seems to be the critical link. 1/2
wiiw.ac.at/n-713.html
wiiw.ac.at/n-713.html
Paper on international investment linkages published in top journal (news article)
New research by Konstantin Wacker sheds light on how foreign direct investment by multinational firms translates into domestic investment. The...
wiiw.ac.at
January 30, 2026 at 1:54 PM
New research by our associated economist Konstantin Wacker sheds light on how foreign direct investment by multinational firms translates into domestic investment. The financial system seems to be the critical link. 1/2
wiiw.ac.at/n-713.html
wiiw.ac.at/n-713.html