The full study comissioned by the @ec.europa.eu
is available for download here. 2/2 #Ukraine #Serbia #Montenegro #EU wiiw.ac.at/p-7468.html

Außerdem: Ökonom Richard Grieveson zum Strukturwandel in Ostmitteleuropa: "Während bisher der private Konsum Haupttreiber des Wachstums war, gehen wir davon aus, dass angesichts eines abkühlenden Reallohnwachstums Investitionen privater Firmen und der öffentlichen Hand an Bedeutung gewinnen" 1/2

The entire Autumn Forecast 2025 with the latest updates on the economies of 23 countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) is available upon request. For wiiw members it is available free of charge. Thank you for following along. 11/11
wiiw.ac.at/hardening-fa...

There are 2 major risks to the forecast. First, high budget deficits, particularly in 🇷🇴, 🇭🇺, 🇵🇱 and 🇸🇰. Second, 🇷🇺 is increasingly destabilising its immediate neighbours with hybrid attacks, acts of sabotage. Already, FDI flows to the region have declined significantly. 10/11

New growth in Russia would require investment in greater productivity. However, this is stagnating. Investment in new machinery and equipment, which is normally the biggest driver of modernisation and productivity gains, has stabilised at the low pre-war level of 2021. 9/11

#Russia is headed for near stagnation. This year, the economy is likely to grow by only 1.2%, in 2026 by 1.4%. Main reason is the central bank’s restrictive monetary policy. Although it has reduced inflation a lot, it has stifled the economy by making loans unaffordable. 8/11

#Ukraine continues to bear the brunt of Russia’s aggression. @wiiw.ac.at's forecast assumes that the war and its adverse economic effects will continue until 2027 – much longer than previously thought. Therefore, growth is expected to be only 2% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. 7/11