gregip.bsky.social
@gregip.bsky.social
Trump isn't responsible for the ~3% inflation he inherited. But it's a problem for him b/c tariffs, maybe tax cuts could keep it above Fed's 2% target. In 1st term, w/ core inflation <2%, tariffs & tax cuts helped Fed meet rather than miss 2% target. My column: www.wsj.com/economy/infl...
Inflation Helped Trump Get Elected. Now It’s His Problem.
The president’s team blames his predecessor for stubborn inflation, but Trump’s own agenda could make it harder to defeat.
www.wsj.com
February 14, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Trump isn't responsible for the ~3% inflation he inherited. But it's a problem for him b/c tariffs, maybe tax cuts could keep it above Fed's 2% target. In 1st term, w/ core inflation <2%, tariffs & tax cuts helped Fed meet rather than miss 2% target. My column: www.wsj.com/economy/infl...
Trump's tariffs spell end of postwar consensus of economic cooperation. Next: continuous trade war driven not by alliances and ideology, but the priorities of the day. The winner is the one who can inflict, and withstand, the most economic pain. My latest. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Trump’s Tariffs Usher In New Trade Wars. The Ultimate Goal Remains Unclear.
The president’s trade assault, which makes no distinction between ally and adversary, is an assertion of U.S. dominance with significant risks.
www.wsj.com
February 3, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Trump's tariffs spell end of postwar consensus of economic cooperation. Next: continuous trade war driven not by alliances and ideology, but the priorities of the day. The winner is the one who can inflict, and withstand, the most economic pain. My latest. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
February 2, 2025 at 5:20 PM
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
Robert Lighthizer won't join Trump's administration after declining to join the internal battle for a top cabinet level position, WSJ's Brian Schwartz reports. His absence could set back Trump’s ambitions. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
How Robert Lighthizer Got Shut Out of Trump’s Cabinet
Donald Trump’s former trade chief was hoping to run Treasury or the Commerce Department, but his prospects faded as other candidates emerged.
www.wsj.com
December 4, 2024 at 2:32 AM
Robert Lighthizer won't join Trump's administration after declining to join the internal battle for a top cabinet level position, WSJ's Brian Schwartz reports. His absence could set back Trump’s ambitions. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Trump's defense of the dollar's reserve currency status is disconsonant because it's a key reason for the demand for US dollar assets that causes our structural trade deficit. (Triffin dilemma, anyone?) Losing that status would mean a lower dollar, higher interest rates, and smaller trade deficit.
December 1, 2024 at 4:22 AM
Trump's defense of the dollar's reserve currency status is disconsonant because it's a key reason for the demand for US dollar assets that causes our structural trade deficit. (Triffin dilemma, anyone?) Losing that status would mean a lower dollar, higher interest rates, and smaller trade deficit.
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
Core PCE came in high (as expected). The last mile thesis has gained strength over the last several months as 12-month core PCE is now up 2.8%. You might say that includes outdated, lagged data. But 3-month is also a 2.8% annual rate.
November 27, 2024 at 3:29 PM
Core PCE came in high (as expected). The last mile thesis has gained strength over the last several months as 12-month core PCE is now up 2.8%. You might say that includes outdated, lagged data. But 3-month is also a 2.8% annual rate.
Trump's 2 key economic planks, tax cuts/dereg to bolster growth; and tariffs to reduce trade deficit & bring back factory jobs, are in conflict. Trump can prioritize stronger growth or a smaller trade deficit , but not both. What Treasury pick means for the clash. www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
Trump’s Growth and Trade Agendas Are at Odds. His Economic Team Will Point to the Winner.
Tax cuts, deregulation and budget deficits would push up the dollar and worsen the trade deficit, while steep tariffs would undermine growth.
www.wsj.com
November 21, 2024 at 6:48 PM
Trump's 2 key economic planks, tax cuts/dereg to bolster growth; and tariffs to reduce trade deficit & bring back factory jobs, are in conflict. Trump can prioritize stronger growth or a smaller trade deficit , but not both. What Treasury pick means for the clash. www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
I'm happy for @jeannasmialek.bsky.social and @jimtankersley.bsky.social but the DC economic policy press corps is taking a real hit here.
www.nytco.com/press/jeanna...
www.nytco.com/press/jeanna...
Jeanna Smialek and Jim Tankersley Join International | The New York Times Company
www.nytco.com
November 19, 2024 at 2:54 PM
I'm happy for @jeannasmialek.bsky.social and @jimtankersley.bsky.social but the DC economic policy press corps is taking a real hit here.
www.nytco.com/press/jeanna...
www.nytco.com/press/jeanna...
Trump inherits a remarkable economy. JP Morgan: "US real GDP currently stands nearly 4%-pts above its pre-pandemic potential path, while the RoW (rest of the world) maintains a greater than 1%-pt negative gap."
November 19, 2024 at 3:24 AM
Trump inherits a remarkable economy. JP Morgan: "US real GDP currently stands nearly 4%-pts above its pre-pandemic potential path, while the RoW (rest of the world) maintains a greater than 1%-pt negative gap."
I talk with Noel King at Vox about tariffs: what Trump is trying to achieve, what we learned from his first term, how they might be implemented this time, and what the reaction might be. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
There's a new tariff in town
Podcast Episode · Today, Explained · 11/14/2024 · 28m
podcasts.apple.com
November 15, 2024 at 7:08 PM
I talk with Noel King at Vox about tariffs: what Trump is trying to achieve, what we learned from his first term, how they might be implemented this time, and what the reaction might be. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Did Harris lose because of economics or culture? I argue here economics. In UK, France, Japan, ihflation was #1 issue, like in U.S., and ruling parties in all lost despite changing leaders. My colleague Aaron Zitner makes the competing argument for culture. Read & vote
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
November 15, 2024 at 1:33 AM
Did Harris lose because of economics or culture? I argue here economics. In UK, France, Japan, ihflation was #1 issue, like in U.S., and ruling parties in all lost despite changing leaders. My colleague Aaron Zitner makes the competing argument for culture. Read & vote
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
A few media friends I’ve seen show up recently:
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
@gregip.bsky.social
@boes.bsky.social
@maxblau.bsky.social
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
@gregip.bsky.social
@boes.bsky.social
@maxblau.bsky.social
November 14, 2024 at 2:02 PM
A few media friends I’ve seen show up recently:
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
@gregip.bsky.social
@boes.bsky.social
@maxblau.bsky.social
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
@gregip.bsky.social
@boes.bsky.social
@maxblau.bsky.social
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
Seems like AI is at the phase right now where we’re getting a huge capex boost as companies figure out how to use it but we largely haven’t seen cost/job cuts due to AI yet, but we’ll get to a point where both the capex growth stops and we’ll get cost/job cuts from AI too.
November 13, 2024 at 6:27 PM
Seems like AI is at the phase right now where we’re getting a huge capex boost as companies figure out how to use it but we largely haven’t seen cost/job cuts due to AI yet, but we’ll get to a point where both the capex growth stops and we’ll get cost/job cuts from AI too.
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure was 2.5% in October, up from 2.2% in August and 2.4% in September. This is median of 21 measures. And FWIW, roughly matches my own sense of underlying inflation (in previous months my judgment was higher than this measure).
November 13, 2024 at 7:28 PM
The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure was 2.5% in October, up from 2.2% in August and 2.4% in September. This is median of 21 measures. And FWIW, roughly matches my own sense of underlying inflation (in previous months my judgment was higher than this measure).
More of an example than an explanation. I wrote about the divergence here; I think the economic pessimism is referred pain from pessimism about the world in general. www.wsj.com/economy/the-...
This might be the best explanation I’ve seen for the divergence between consumer sentiment and economic data
November 6, 2023 at 8:47 PM
More of an example than an explanation. I wrote about the divergence here; I think the economic pessimism is referred pain from pessimism about the world in general. www.wsj.com/economy/the-...
Is Globalization in Decline? A New Number Contradicts the Consensus. Instead of looking at the dollar value of trade, focus on how many tons of stuff get shipped how far, by Josh Zumbrun www.wsj.com/economy/glob...
Is Globalization in Decline? A New Number Contradicts the Consensus
Instead of looking at the dollar value of trade, focus on how many tons of stuff get shipped how far
www.wsj.com
November 3, 2023 at 6:35 PM
Is Globalization in Decline? A New Number Contradicts the Consensus. Instead of looking at the dollar value of trade, focus on how many tons of stuff get shipped how far, by Josh Zumbrun www.wsj.com/economy/glob...
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
Layoffs remain very low. But for people who are out of work, it's getting harder to find a job. The job-finding rate is roughly back to where it was before the pandemic (which was still a very strong job market). And the average duration of unemployment has drifted up a bit.
November 3, 2023 at 1:48 PM
Layoffs remain very low. But for people who are out of work, it's getting harder to find a job. The job-finding rate is roughly back to where it was before the pandemic (which was still a very strong job market). And the average duration of unemployment has drifted up a bit.
This is the streaming equivalent of the potato chip company shrinking the size of the bag but keeping the price the same.
Cute: HBO Max says they're keeping my service the same price but cutting the quality. I am definitely rethinking which streamers I keep, somebody's got to go with all these price increases.
November 2, 2023 at 6:48 PM
This is the streaming equivalent of the potato chip company shrinking the size of the bag but keeping the price the same.
Why Fed chair Powell isn't bothered by what looks like above potential growth: potential has moved up. At least temporarily. "Fed Takes Heart in a Supply-Side Boom" wsj.com/economy/cent...
November 2, 2023 at 12:53 AM
Why Fed chair Powell isn't bothered by what looks like above potential growth: potential has moved up. At least temporarily. "Fed Takes Heart in a Supply-Side Boom" wsj.com/economy/cent...
GDP and jobs are above their prepandemic trend. Inflation is falling, real wages have recovered, real wealth is up. Why so much economic pessimism? Could it be "referred pain"? My latest. www.wsj.com/economy/the-...
The Economy Is Great. Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood?
Lingering inflation can’t explain all of the unhappiness; maybe it is referred pain from the wider world
www.wsj.com
November 1, 2023 at 3:50 PM
GDP and jobs are above their prepandemic trend. Inflation is falling, real wages have recovered, real wealth is up. Why so much economic pessimism? Could it be "referred pain"? My latest. www.wsj.com/economy/the-...
Inflation is also higher than before Covid so there's at least a prima facie case that today's level of GDP is above potential, although CBO's own estimates don't show that.
Jason posted this on Twitter, so I'm bringing it over here. It's a comparison of CBO's pre-COVID projection of real GDP and what actually happened.
We are currently above where CBO thought we'd be before COVID was a thing - as if the pandemic never happened.
We are currently above where CBO thought we'd be before COVID was a thing - as if the pandemic never happened.
October 27, 2023 at 2:17 AM
Inflation is also higher than before Covid so there's at least a prima facie case that today's level of GDP is above potential, although CBO's own estimates don't show that.
Reposted by gregip.bsky.social
What we talk about when we talk about Long Transitory
October 26, 2023 at 2:47 PM
What we talk about when we talk about Long Transitory
Fed chairmen used to lecture Congress and presidents on the deficit. Those days are over. Even as deficits drive up bond yields and roil markets, Powell refuses to offer advice, in contrast to 2020 when he advocated for more stimulus. My column. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
October 25, 2023 at 3:33 PM
Fed chairmen used to lecture Congress and presidents on the deficit. Those days are over. Even as deficits drive up bond yields and roil markets, Powell refuses to offer advice, in contrast to 2020 when he advocated for more stimulus. My column. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...