... inward, to be satisfied by idle domestic resources. (By contrast, had the US still been at full employment, there would be no idle resources to satsify this tariff-induced demand; you'd get inflation, or a reduction in output elsewhere in the economy).

So another way of saying this (in more conventional terms) is: the U.S. could reduce its indebtedness through fiscal austerity; this would normally lead to underemployment. But it can neutralizes that by raising tariffs, effectively directing some of the demand now satisifed by imports ...

but if you're at full employment (an assumption underlying a lot of trade models), tariffs direct productive resources from one sector to another, so you're less likely to get higher absolute consumption.

I infer that for tariffs to raise overall consumption through the mechanism you describe, i.e. boosting production, the host country would have to be below full employment, i.e. there would have to be idle resources that can be put to use in the new production...

on first read it feels like a frank and logical assessment of China's need to boost demand by shifting income to the household sector. but his policy conclusions - more spending on industrial policy and infrastructure - are really boosting the supply side further

I agree. My take: If lower inflows are caused by higher U.S. saving/lower investment, rates should fall. But if caused by exogenous decline in demand for dollar as a reserve asset, then marginal buyer of UST becomes more price sensitive and yields (esp term premium) should rise.

The horizontal bars represent the percentage saying "gotten better" minus the percentage saying "gotten worse." The first bar (for US) is the net answer across all battleground states on the US economy. For the states, it represents the net answer for each state.

Layoffs remain very low. But for people who are out of work, it's getting harder to find a job. The job-finding rate is roughly back to where it was before the pandemic (which was still a very strong job market). And the average duration of unemployment has drifted up a bit.