Charlie Robertson
@frontiercharlie.bsky.social
Frontier / emerging market obsessive, author The Time Travelling Economist which explains what Marx missed and when countries escape poverty from 1670 to 2070
Which is why I assume Europe won't sanction China if it invades ("re-incorporates" depending on your perspective) Taiwan .. or least won't impose any meaningful sanctions
Germany is just making too much money in China to back away now - The Economic Times m.economictimes.com/news/interna...
Germany is just making too much money in China to back away now
German companies are investing billions more in China, ignoring government warnings. Automakers and chemical giants are deepening ties. This strategy risks economic calamity. Germany's Vice Chancel...
m.economictimes.com
November 17, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Which is why I assume Europe won't sanction China if it invades ("re-incorporates" depending on your perspective) Taiwan .. or least won't impose any meaningful sanctions
Again, people trying to explain a symptom (Africa's low credit ratings) and often missing the structural cause.
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 17, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Again, people trying to explain a symptom (Africa's low credit ratings) and often missing the structural cause.
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I don't get all the fuss about UK growth or the budget.
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
November 13, 2025 at 2:56 PM
I don't get all the fuss about UK growth or the budget.
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
Best explanation for the weak Germany IFO current conditions numbers we're seeing
German manufacturing struggling to compete with China
Jobs being lost, tax take to city councils dropping, and Chinese firms undercutting European prices (Swiss firm here) by 78.5%
www.ft.com/content/239e...
German manufacturing struggling to compete with China
Jobs being lost, tax take to city councils dropping, and Chinese firms undercutting European prices (Swiss firm here) by 78.5%
www.ft.com/content/239e...
Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Europe’s manufacturing champion is in free fall. Economists are suggesting radical steps to save what is left
www.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Best explanation for the weak Germany IFO current conditions numbers we're seeing
German manufacturing struggling to compete with China
Jobs being lost, tax take to city councils dropping, and Chinese firms undercutting European prices (Swiss firm here) by 78.5%
www.ft.com/content/239e...
German manufacturing struggling to compete with China
Jobs being lost, tax take to city councils dropping, and Chinese firms undercutting European prices (Swiss firm here) by 78.5%
www.ft.com/content/239e...
Looks like China may have learnt a valuable lesson in its foreign lending practices.
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
November 12, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Looks like China may have learnt a valuable lesson in its foreign lending practices.
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
October 28, 2025 at 8:27 AM
Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
Reposted by Charlie Robertson
Sharing from Linkdin- I hope she does not mind - Joyce Chang's IMF meeting investors conference consensus. Often been as reliable as the Davos consensus but always interesting ... Memories from Washington 2008 end of the world IMF times.. Nervous laughter...
October 20, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Sharing from Linkdin- I hope she does not mind - Joyce Chang's IMF meeting investors conference consensus. Often been as reliable as the Davos consensus but always interesting ... Memories from Washington 2008 end of the world IMF times.. Nervous laughter...
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
October 14, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
October 14, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Good read
Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀
Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀
“I thought it was important to have something that physically exists, something you can actually hold in your hands"
We dig into one of the markets stories of the year: gold mania
www.ft.com/content/3401...
Story by me, Leslie Hook, Harry Dempsey, data visualisation by @raydouglas.bsky.social
We dig into one of the markets stories of the year: gold mania
www.ft.com/content/3401...
Story by me, Leslie Hook, Harry Dempsey, data visualisation by @raydouglas.bsky.social
October 14, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Good read
Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀
Love the quote about a “potential” bubble in gold 😀😀
Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...
October 13, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...
I do explain why this is the case, in The Time Travelling Economist (high fertility = low savings = high interest rates = overly expensive electricity)
Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help
Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help
October 13, 2025 at 12:07 PM
I do explain why this is the case, in The Time Travelling Economist (high fertility = low savings = high interest rates = overly expensive electricity)
Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help
Cheap solar panels and cheap batteries do help
China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
October 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
October 13, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive
October 10, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive
Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
October 10, 2025 at 6:55 AM
Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani
'Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’...
“We ate some fish in 2019. That was a good day,” said 40yo Aleko in Buterere... in the landlocked African nation of Burundi. “Now, every once in a while, we eat peanuts. This is worse than before,”'
www.ft.com/content/4aca...
“We ate some fish in 2019. That was a good day,” said 40yo Aleko in Buterere... in the landlocked African nation of Burundi. “Now, every once in a while, we eat peanuts. This is worse than before,”'
www.ft.com/content/4aca...
Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’
Central African nation struggles to emerge from poverty and conflict as president promises reform
www.ft.com
October 8, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani
This is great piece, very clear and well structured
When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt
When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt
Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com Times for asking me to share my thoughts on why I believe the AI capex boom signals the start of the end-game for this phase of the AI bubble.
www.ft.com/content/c7b9...
www.ft.com/content/c7b9...
The AI capex endgame is approaching
The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them
www.ft.com
October 3, 2025 at 6:14 AM
This is great piece, very clear and well structured
When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt
When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt
Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy.
P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.
See “The Time Travelling Economist”
Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan
P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.
See “The Time Travelling Economist”
Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan
P&G announces it is shutting down operations in Pakistan, with Gillette Pakistan Limited notifying PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision
P&G to Shut Down Operations in Pakistan
Gillette Pakistan Limited has notified PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision
thestandard.com.pk
October 2, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy.
P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.
See “The Time Travelling Economist”
Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan
P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.
See “The Time Travelling Economist”
Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan
AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes
Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks
Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam
unctad.org/news/tariffs...
Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks
Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam
unctad.org/news/tariffs...
Tariffs, trade and preferences: What if AGOA ends?
Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025.
unctad.org
October 1, 2025 at 8:25 AM
AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes
Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks
Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam
unctad.org/news/tariffs...
Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks
Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam
unctad.org/news/tariffs...
US government looming shutdown
All important upcoming Argentina elections
Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation
Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?
All important upcoming Argentina elections
Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation
Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?
September 30, 2025 at 4:15 PM
US government looming shutdown
All important upcoming Argentina elections
Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation
Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?
All important upcoming Argentina elections
Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation
Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?
Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see.
Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about
www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...
Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about
www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...
www.ubos.org
September 30, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see.
Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about
www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...
Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about
www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...
Good news on AGOA, especially for SA, Kenya, Madagascar and DR Congo among the non-oil beneficiaries
Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time)
t.co/XrO0ljvBN0
Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time)
t.co/XrO0ljvBN0
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/trump-administration-says-it-supports-1-year-renewal-africa-trade-initiative-2025-09-29/
t.co
September 30, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Good news on AGOA, especially for SA, Kenya, Madagascar and DR Congo among the non-oil beneficiaries
Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time)
t.co/XrO0ljvBN0
Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time)
t.co/XrO0ljvBN0
A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
September 30, 2025 at 5:48 AM
A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
Morocco gets back the investment grade it lost in 2021. The other two agencies are still 1 notch lower, with stable outlooks on their Ba1 and BB+ sub-investment grade ratings
S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
www.spglobal.com
September 29, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Morocco gets back the investment grade it lost in 2021. The other two agencies are still 1 notch lower, with stable outlooks on their Ba1 and BB+ sub-investment grade ratings
S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...