Ian Harnett
@ianrharnett.bsky.social
Veteran macro-strategist. Co-founder Absolute Strategy Research - all views are my own - not those of ASR. Any likes/reposts do not mean endorsement.
Just in case you thought it was only US Equities that are expensive. This is the dispersion of Sector Price / Book ratios for World ex US sectors…
November 9, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Just in case you thought it was only US Equities that are expensive. This is the dispersion of Sector Price / Book ratios for World ex US sectors…
While the US market may be supported by forward EPS valuations, the dispersion of 'fundamental' valuation metrics like Price/ Cash is extreme. As we noted in our research report for @asr_london clients recently, the Price/Cash dispersion has tended to peak around market reversals
November 9, 2025 at 9:14 PM
While the US market may be supported by forward EPS valuations, the dispersion of 'fundamental' valuation metrics like Price/ Cash is extreme. As we noted in our research report for @asr_london clients recently, the Price/Cash dispersion has tended to peak around market reversals
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com for highlighting our ASR research note, "No Smoke Without Fire" where we explored the recent stress for BDCs/Asset Managers - and noted the latter moving into a 'bear market'. This was in the context of the Blackstone results
October 24, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com for highlighting our ASR research note, "No Smoke Without Fire" where we explored the recent stress for BDCs/Asset Managers - and noted the latter moving into a 'bear market'. This was in the context of the Blackstone results
Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com Times for asking me to share my thoughts on why I believe the AI capex boom signals the start of the end-game for this phase of the AI bubble.
www.ft.com/content/c7b9...
www.ft.com/content/c7b9...
The AI capex endgame is approaching
The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them
www.ft.com
October 3, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com Times for asking me to share my thoughts on why I believe the AI capex boom signals the start of the end-game for this phase of the AI bubble.
www.ft.com/content/c7b9...
www.ft.com/content/c7b9...
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social for including this ASR chart and comment in his recent Unhedged column for the @financialtimes.com. We showed how the US market is not just over-valued but also over-owned
October 1, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social for including this ASR chart and comment in his recent Unhedged column for the @financialtimes.com. We showed how the US market is not just over-valued but also over-owned
The AI capex boom is the final signal that we are in the end-game phase lf the AI ‘bubble’
We recently wrote a paper for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients highlighting how the capex boom in AI is the last of five classic signals that are typically seen as we reach the final stages of bubbles.
We recently wrote a paper for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients highlighting how the capex boom in AI is the last of five classic signals that are typically seen as we reach the final stages of bubbles.
September 27, 2025 at 6:03 PM
The AI capex boom is the final signal that we are in the end-game phase lf the AI ‘bubble’
We recently wrote a paper for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients highlighting how the capex boom in AI is the last of five classic signals that are typically seen as we reach the final stages of bubbles.
We recently wrote a paper for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients highlighting how the capex boom in AI is the last of five classic signals that are typically seen as we reach the final stages of bubbles.
Many thanks to Tony Tassell at the Financial Times for publishing my article on lessons from the 1920s and ‘30s on tariffs and markets. It may be coincidence, but profits only fell much as they did in in the GFC were around the tariffs of the early 1920s and early 1930s.
www.ft.com/content/ea29...
www.ft.com/content/ea29...
Lessons from the 1920s and 30s on tariffs and markets
Investors today might be too complacent about the risks to earnings from slower growth and higher inflation
www.ft.com
August 4, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Many thanks to Tony Tassell at the Financial Times for publishing my article on lessons from the 1920s and ‘30s on tariffs and markets. It may be coincidence, but profits only fell much as they did in in the GFC were around the tariffs of the early 1920s and early 1930s.
www.ft.com/content/ea29...
www.ft.com/content/ea29...
Tony has flagged the provisions in the new Budget Bill that move us closer to a world where capital is explicitly weaponised… not a surprise… but definitely unwelcome for markets. Kind of Tony to repost the FT insight article that we wrote warning of the risk of just such a development.
Wall Street is warning that a little-publicised provision in Donald Trump’s budget bill that allows the government to raise taxes on foreign investments in the US could upend markets and hit American industry. www.ft.com/content/b400...
Foreign tax provision in Trump budget bill spooks Wall Street
Legislation would erode the appeal of US financial assets, banks and investors say
www.ft.com
May 31, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Tony has flagged the provisions in the new Budget Bill that move us closer to a world where capital is explicitly weaponised… not a surprise… but definitely unwelcome for markets. Kind of Tony to repost the FT insight article that we wrote warning of the risk of just such a development.
Many thanks to the FT for inviting me to share my views on the risks to global capital flows from the #liberationday tariffs
www.ft.com/content/c564...
www.ft.com/content/c564...
How ‘weaponised trade’ could lead to ‘weaponised capital’
As international structures that promoted free trade are unwound, there is a rising risk of a return to capital controls
www.ft.com
April 4, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Many thanks to the FT for inviting me to share my views on the risks to global capital flows from the #liberationday tariffs
www.ft.com/content/c564...
www.ft.com/content/c564...
Many thanks to Jonathan Shapiro at the Australian Financial Review for his coverage of the ASR views on the potential impact and importance of the U.S. Department of the Treasury Sovereign Wealth Fund. This will have an impact, not only in the US, but also for Global investors.
March 31, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Many thanks to Jonathan Shapiro at the Australian Financial Review for his coverage of the ASR views on the potential impact and importance of the U.S. Department of the Treasury Sovereign Wealth Fund. This will have an impact, not only in the US, but also for Global investors.
Who owns US Equities? As the US market comes under pressure, it is worth looking at how the ownership of the US market has changed in the last 75 years. This has shifted from a market owned mainly by US households, to one where institutions and foreign investors have key holdings.
March 9, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Who owns US Equities? As the US market comes under pressure, it is worth looking at how the ownership of the US market has changed in the last 75 years. This has shifted from a market owned mainly by US households, to one where institutions and foreign investors have key holdings.
Very kind of @nixonsimon.bsky.social to flag my recent article on the #USsovereignwealthfund in his latest #wealthofnations article. We have suggested to @asr_london clients that investors need to take the US SWF more seriously. If you wand to read the article visit www.absolute-strategy.com/blog
March 9, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Very kind of @nixonsimon.bsky.social to flag my recent article on the #USsovereignwealthfund in his latest #wealthofnations article. We have suggested to @asr_london clients that investors need to take the US SWF more seriously. If you wand to read the article visit www.absolute-strategy.com/blog
Great to be in Washington DC with my Absolute Strategy Research Ltd co-founder at the start of a week seeing key clients and prospects to talk about the actions that we might expect from the #treasury and the #Fed and what these might mean for #globaleconomics and #assetallocation
March 3, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Great to be in Washington DC with my Absolute Strategy Research Ltd co-founder at the start of a week seeing key clients and prospects to talk about the actions that we might expect from the #treasury and the #Fed and what these might mean for #globaleconomics and #assetallocation
As the #munichsecurityconference continues, it's worth reflecting on the scale of Global military spending. This chart was included as one of the '5 Big Themes for 2025' that we identified in our recent 'Controversies, Conviction and Context' note for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients.
February 15, 2025 at 4:27 PM
As the #munichsecurityconference continues, it's worth reflecting on the scale of Global military spending. This chart was included as one of the '5 Big Themes for 2025' that we identified in our recent 'Controversies, Conviction and Context' note for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients.
At Absolute Strategy Research we love to provide our clients with context for their investments. Given the Bank of England rate decision yesterday, our Chart of the Day this morning showed 100 years of UK policy rates... highlighting how this rate cycle has peaked close to levels seen pre-GFC period
February 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
At Absolute Strategy Research we love to provide our clients with context for their investments. Given the Bank of England rate decision yesterday, our Chart of the Day this morning showed 100 years of UK policy rates... highlighting how this rate cycle has peaked close to levels seen pre-GFC period
How long can policy uncertainty remain elevated and risk premia remain subdued? My Chart of the Day at the start of the week (available to Absolute Strategy Research clients from their sales person) linked Policy Uncertainty and the ASR Composite Equity Risk Premium....Not terribly encouraging!
February 5, 2025 at 4:07 PM
How long can policy uncertainty remain elevated and risk premia remain subdued? My Chart of the Day at the start of the week (available to Absolute Strategy Research clients from their sales person) linked Policy Uncertainty and the ASR Composite Equity Risk Premium....Not terribly encouraging!
In the aftermath of the pandemic we flagged how UK labour shortages back at 1970s levels risked a sustained inflation shock. While those labour shortages have eased, the latest CBI survey shows labour shortages rising again - this once could again become a headwind to UK inflation and BoE rate cuts.
February 2, 2025 at 8:23 PM
In the aftermath of the pandemic we flagged how UK labour shortages back at 1970s levels risked a sustained inflation shock. While those labour shortages have eased, the latest CBI survey shows labour shortages rising again - this once could again become a headwind to UK inflation and BoE rate cuts.
Earlier this week - as DeekSeek looked to disrupt the US Equity rally - my #ChartoftheDay, available for ASR clients via their salesperson, was this chart putting the current 'bubble' in context...We concluded "Of course, this time will be different 😉"
January 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Earlier this week - as DeekSeek looked to disrupt the US Equity rally - my #ChartoftheDay, available for ASR clients via their salesperson, was this chart putting the current 'bubble' in context...We concluded "Of course, this time will be different 😉"
It was a great honour to be invited by Suzanne Wooley at @bloomberg.com to write 'How to Invest $10,000 Right Now'... In this I discuss how "increased energy [is a] critical part of the Bessent 'three arrows.'" Take a look (*paywall) and see if you agree... Ian H www.bloomberg.com/features/how...
Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now
Investment experts highlight opportunities in consumer staples, defense, European luxury brands and more.
www.bloomberg.com
January 30, 2025 at 5:57 PM
It was a great honour to be invited by Suzanne Wooley at @bloomberg.com to write 'How to Invest $10,000 Right Now'... In this I discuss how "increased energy [is a] critical part of the Bessent 'three arrows.'" Take a look (*paywall) and see if you agree... Ian H www.bloomberg.com/features/how...
Over the last 100 years, 10yr returns for US Equities vs Bonds have only been higher once before, toward the end of the 1950s. A decade of QE has helped drive this divergence in returns - the key question is how long this can be sustained as rates normalize in the next decade?
January 26, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Over the last 100 years, 10yr returns for US Equities vs Bonds have only been higher once before, toward the end of the 1950s. A decade of QE has helped drive this divergence in returns - the key question is how long this can be sustained as rates normalize in the next decade?
100 years of Bond and Equity 10yr returns shows what a decade of QE has done. The way Bond returns have been crushed in the last decade has received a lot of attention, but the scale of the gains for Equities has also been extreme, as this Absolute Strategy Research chart shows
January 26, 2025 at 8:11 PM
100 years of Bond and Equity 10yr returns shows what a decade of QE has done. The way Bond returns have been crushed in the last decade has received a lot of attention, but the scale of the gains for Equities has also been extreme, as this Absolute Strategy Research chart shows
Just when you thought that talk of Animal Spirits couldn't get any stronger.... The Absolute Strategy Research 'animal spirits' indicator is now 6x above its average level. Is this a sign of bull-market strength, or an overvalued market relying on qualitative, not quantitative measures?
January 26, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Just when you thought that talk of Animal Spirits couldn't get any stronger.... The Absolute Strategy Research 'animal spirits' indicator is now 6x above its average level. Is this a sign of bull-market strength, or an overvalued market relying on qualitative, not quantitative measures?
Sterling, Not Gilts, Define UK Crises! In a recent note to ASR clients, we looked at the drivers of recent rise in Gilt yields. Long dated yields have been driven by real yields (reflecting supply worries), but the front-end rise reflects increased inflation risk, and BoE dovishness. 1/3
January 16, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Sterling, Not Gilts, Define UK Crises! In a recent note to ASR clients, we looked at the drivers of recent rise in Gilt yields. Long dated yields have been driven by real yields (reflecting supply worries), but the front-end rise reflects increased inflation risk, and BoE dovishness. 1/3
Public service announcement: Absolute Strategy Research is delighted to welcome Ebrahim Rahbari to ASR as Head of Rates Strategy and Head of Research, US. Ebrahim will be based in New York to strengthen our global client coverage. Great to have another top-ranked analyst on our award winning team.
January 10, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Public service announcement: Absolute Strategy Research is delighted to welcome Ebrahim Rahbari to ASR as Head of Rates Strategy and Head of Research, US. Ebrahim will be based in New York to strengthen our global client coverage. Great to have another top-ranked analyst on our award winning team.
How much of a Global recovery are you expecting for 2025? This Absolute Strategy Research chart shows how Global non-Tech Cyclicals have outperformed more Defensive sectors in the last three months...it may be time to review if you are too pessimistic on some of the more defensive sectors.
January 3, 2025 at 12:34 PM
How much of a Global recovery are you expecting for 2025? This Absolute Strategy Research chart shows how Global non-Tech Cyclicals have outperformed more Defensive sectors in the last three months...it may be time to review if you are too pessimistic on some of the more defensive sectors.