Ian Harnett
@ianrharnett.bsky.social
Veteran macro-strategist. Co-founder Absolute Strategy Research - all views are my own - not those of ASR. Any likes/reposts do not mean endorsement.
Just in case you thought it was only US Equities that are expensive. This is the dispersion of Sector Price / Book ratios for World ex US sectors…
November 9, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Just in case you thought it was only US Equities that are expensive. This is the dispersion of Sector Price / Book ratios for World ex US sectors…
While the US market may be supported by forward EPS valuations, the dispersion of 'fundamental' valuation metrics like Price/ Cash is extreme. As we noted in our research report for @asr_london clients recently, the Price/Cash dispersion has tended to peak around market reversals
November 9, 2025 at 9:14 PM
While the US market may be supported by forward EPS valuations, the dispersion of 'fundamental' valuation metrics like Price/ Cash is extreme. As we noted in our research report for @asr_london clients recently, the Price/Cash dispersion has tended to peak around market reversals
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com for highlighting our ASR research note, "No Smoke Without Fire" where we explored the recent stress for BDCs/Asset Managers - and noted the latter moving into a 'bear market'. This was in the context of the Blackstone results
October 24, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com for highlighting our ASR research note, "No Smoke Without Fire" where we explored the recent stress for BDCs/Asset Managers - and noted the latter moving into a 'bear market'. This was in the context of the Blackstone results
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social for including this ASR chart and comment in his recent Unhedged column for the @financialtimes.com. We showed how the US market is not just over-valued but also over-owned
October 1, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social for including this ASR chart and comment in his recent Unhedged column for the @financialtimes.com. We showed how the US market is not just over-valued but also over-owned
Many thanks to Jonathan Shapiro at the Australian Financial Review for his coverage of the ASR views on the potential impact and importance of the U.S. Department of the Treasury Sovereign Wealth Fund. This will have an impact, not only in the US, but also for Global investors.
March 31, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Many thanks to Jonathan Shapiro at the Australian Financial Review for his coverage of the ASR views on the potential impact and importance of the U.S. Department of the Treasury Sovereign Wealth Fund. This will have an impact, not only in the US, but also for Global investors.
Tony - could not agree more - David Bowers and I were in the US last week suggesting to ASR clients exactly the same things - this is a coherent philosophical shift in regime and that tariffs are a prelude to capital controls and the end of globally portable capital. This as the chart shows why!
March 14, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Tony - could not agree more - David Bowers and I were in the US last week suggesting to ASR clients exactly the same things - this is a coherent philosophical shift in regime and that tariffs are a prelude to capital controls and the end of globally portable capital. This as the chart shows why!
@adamtooze.bsky.social - even more impressive is that you can replace that pre-GFC trend line with actual US productivity! This chart shows the impact of persistent UK policy failures. We use this chart with the ASR clients to highlight the degree to which the UK deserves its low equity valuation.
March 13, 2025 at 8:20 PM
@adamtooze.bsky.social - even more impressive is that you can replace that pre-GFC trend line with actual US productivity! This chart shows the impact of persistent UK policy failures. We use this chart with the ASR clients to highlight the degree to which the UK deserves its low equity valuation.
Who owns US Equities? As the US market comes under pressure, it is worth looking at how the ownership of the US market has changed in the last 75 years. This has shifted from a market owned mainly by US households, to one where institutions and foreign investors have key holdings.
March 9, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Who owns US Equities? As the US market comes under pressure, it is worth looking at how the ownership of the US market has changed in the last 75 years. This has shifted from a market owned mainly by US households, to one where institutions and foreign investors have key holdings.
Great to be in Washington DC with my Absolute Strategy Research Ltd co-founder at the start of a week seeing key clients and prospects to talk about the actions that we might expect from the #treasury and the #Fed and what these might mean for #globaleconomics and #assetallocation
March 3, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Great to be in Washington DC with my Absolute Strategy Research Ltd co-founder at the start of a week seeing key clients and prospects to talk about the actions that we might expect from the #treasury and the #Fed and what these might mean for #globaleconomics and #assetallocation
As the #munichsecurityconference continues, it's worth reflecting on the scale of Global military spending. This chart was included as one of the '5 Big Themes for 2025' that we identified in our recent 'Controversies, Conviction and Context' note for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients.
February 15, 2025 at 4:27 PM
As the #munichsecurityconference continues, it's worth reflecting on the scale of Global military spending. This chart was included as one of the '5 Big Themes for 2025' that we identified in our recent 'Controversies, Conviction and Context' note for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients.
At Absolute Strategy Research we love to provide our clients with context for their investments. Given the Bank of England rate decision yesterday, our Chart of the Day this morning showed 100 years of UK policy rates... highlighting how this rate cycle has peaked close to levels seen pre-GFC period
February 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
At Absolute Strategy Research we love to provide our clients with context for their investments. Given the Bank of England rate decision yesterday, our Chart of the Day this morning showed 100 years of UK policy rates... highlighting how this rate cycle has peaked close to levels seen pre-GFC period
How long can policy uncertainty remain elevated and risk premia remain subdued? My Chart of the Day at the start of the week (available to Absolute Strategy Research clients from their sales person) linked Policy Uncertainty and the ASR Composite Equity Risk Premium....Not terribly encouraging!
February 5, 2025 at 4:07 PM
How long can policy uncertainty remain elevated and risk premia remain subdued? My Chart of the Day at the start of the week (available to Absolute Strategy Research clients from their sales person) linked Policy Uncertainty and the ASR Composite Equity Risk Premium....Not terribly encouraging!
In the aftermath of the pandemic we flagged how UK labour shortages back at 1970s levels risked a sustained inflation shock. While those labour shortages have eased, the latest CBI survey shows labour shortages rising again - this once could again become a headwind to UK inflation and BoE rate cuts.
February 2, 2025 at 8:23 PM
In the aftermath of the pandemic we flagged how UK labour shortages back at 1970s levels risked a sustained inflation shock. While those labour shortages have eased, the latest CBI survey shows labour shortages rising again - this once could again become a headwind to UK inflation and BoE rate cuts.
Earlier this week - as DeekSeek looked to disrupt the US Equity rally - my #ChartoftheDay, available for ASR clients via their salesperson, was this chart putting the current 'bubble' in context...We concluded "Of course, this time will be different 😉"
January 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Earlier this week - as DeekSeek looked to disrupt the US Equity rally - my #ChartoftheDay, available for ASR clients via their salesperson, was this chart putting the current 'bubble' in context...We concluded "Of course, this time will be different 😉"
Over the last 100 years, 10yr returns for US Equities vs Bonds have only been higher once before, toward the end of the 1950s. A decade of QE has helped drive this divergence in returns - the key question is how long this can be sustained as rates normalize in the next decade?
January 26, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Over the last 100 years, 10yr returns for US Equities vs Bonds have only been higher once before, toward the end of the 1950s. A decade of QE has helped drive this divergence in returns - the key question is how long this can be sustained as rates normalize in the next decade?
100 years of Bond and Equity 10yr returns shows what a decade of QE has done. The way Bond returns have been crushed in the last decade has received a lot of attention, but the scale of the gains for Equities has also been extreme, as this Absolute Strategy Research chart shows
January 26, 2025 at 8:11 PM
100 years of Bond and Equity 10yr returns shows what a decade of QE has done. The way Bond returns have been crushed in the last decade has received a lot of attention, but the scale of the gains for Equities has also been extreme, as this Absolute Strategy Research chart shows
Just when you thought that talk of Animal Spirits couldn't get any stronger.... The Absolute Strategy Research 'animal spirits' indicator is now 6x above its average level. Is this a sign of bull-market strength, or an overvalued market relying on qualitative, not quantitative measures?
January 26, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Just when you thought that talk of Animal Spirits couldn't get any stronger.... The Absolute Strategy Research 'animal spirits' indicator is now 6x above its average level. Is this a sign of bull-market strength, or an overvalued market relying on qualitative, not quantitative measures?
While it is tempting to focus only on the 'crisis' in Gilts - the reality is that nearly every UK financial crisis since WWII has focused on the pace and scale of sterling weakness. If GBP falls more than -8% in a month, a policy response is inevitable. But there is little sign of that so far. 2/3
January 16, 2025 at 9:17 PM
While it is tempting to focus only on the 'crisis' in Gilts - the reality is that nearly every UK financial crisis since WWII has focused on the pace and scale of sterling weakness. If GBP falls more than -8% in a month, a policy response is inevitable. But there is little sign of that so far. 2/3
Sterling, Not Gilts, Define UK Crises! In a recent note to ASR clients, we looked at the drivers of recent rise in Gilt yields. Long dated yields have been driven by real yields (reflecting supply worries), but the front-end rise reflects increased inflation risk, and BoE dovishness. 1/3
January 16, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Sterling, Not Gilts, Define UK Crises! In a recent note to ASR clients, we looked at the drivers of recent rise in Gilt yields. Long dated yields have been driven by real yields (reflecting supply worries), but the front-end rise reflects increased inflation risk, and BoE dovishness. 1/3
Public service announcement: Absolute Strategy Research is delighted to welcome Ebrahim Rahbari to ASR as Head of Rates Strategy and Head of Research, US. Ebrahim will be based in New York to strengthen our global client coverage. Great to have another top-ranked analyst on our award winning team.
January 10, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Public service announcement: Absolute Strategy Research is delighted to welcome Ebrahim Rahbari to ASR as Head of Rates Strategy and Head of Research, US. Ebrahim will be based in New York to strengthen our global client coverage. Great to have another top-ranked analyst on our award winning team.
How much of a Global recovery are you expecting for 2025? This Absolute Strategy Research chart shows how Global non-Tech Cyclicals have outperformed more Defensive sectors in the last three months...it may be time to review if you are too pessimistic on some of the more defensive sectors.
January 3, 2025 at 12:34 PM
How much of a Global recovery are you expecting for 2025? This Absolute Strategy Research chart shows how Global non-Tech Cyclicals have outperformed more Defensive sectors in the last three months...it may be time to review if you are too pessimistic on some of the more defensive sectors.
There is a lot of talk about 'Animal Sprits' this Holiday Season... At Absolute Strategy Research we love to share charts with our investor clients that give them market context. This one shows how commentators have never been more reliant on Animal Spirits to justify higher markets! 1/3
December 20, 2024 at 4:12 PM
There is a lot of talk about 'Animal Sprits' this Holiday Season... At Absolute Strategy Research we love to share charts with our investor clients that give them market context. This one shows how commentators have never been more reliant on Animal Spirits to justify higher markets! 1/3