Charlie Robertson
@frontiercharlie.bsky.social
Frontier / emerging market obsessive, author The Time Travelling Economist which explains what Marx missed and when countries escape poverty from 1670 to 2070
Again, people trying to explain a symptom (Africa's low credit ratings) and often missing the structural cause.
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 17, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Again, people trying to explain a symptom (Africa's low credit ratings) and often missing the structural cause.
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Young people/countries are on average a higher credit risk than people/countries in their 20s, 30s or 40s.
See The Time Travelling Economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I don't get all the fuss about UK growth or the budget.
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
November 13, 2025 at 2:56 PM
I don't get all the fuss about UK growth or the budget.
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
Numbers look comparable to Europe and Japan, a bit worse than US on growth, but much better on the budget.
UK media narrative portrays a very different picture from Bloomberg consensus macro forecasts
Looks like China may have learnt a valuable lesson in its foreign lending practices.
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
November 12, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Looks like China may have learnt a valuable lesson in its foreign lending practices.
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
There's not much point building expensive infrastructure if there's not enough human capital to exploit it.
Now their lending is increasing the focus on human capital (great news for the 2040s)
Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
October 28, 2025 at 8:27 AM
Human capital index shows why Kenya will be next to industrialise in SSA after Mauritius
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
The chart strongly correlated with The Time Travelling Economist
PS I do wish the World Bank would write names instead of country codes. It would “democratise” information rather than be just for elites like u
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
October 14, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
October 14, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Standard Bank bosses may have read my book The Time Travelling Economist.
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Kenya is on track to be Africa’s next “Asian-style” industrialisation story, in the 2030s.
In 10-20 years, high growth economies will be called “African-style”.
Much of Asia will be low growth like Korea
Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...
October 13, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Go Congo ! .. another African currency rallies sharply, after Ghana and Zambia earlier this year .. what makes this fun, is that the parallel rate is way way stronger than the official rate. Even now www.radiookapi.net/2025/10/13/a...
China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
October 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
China must be wishing that its exports to Africa were more meaningful in terms of size
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
But at least there's Asia, whose demand for Chinese goods (helping de-industrialise others on the continent) and Europe, to offset the drop in exports to the US
Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
October 13, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Price matters .. battery prices and additions of GW of electricity battery capacity
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
A key issue to help Africa experience the greenest industrial revolution ever
Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive
October 10, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Nigeria’s central bank governor speaking to a packed event organised by the Wheeler Institute, part of London Business School. Impressive
I quibble with just one line. He provides good evidence on the first argument ..but in this piece offers no evidence that tax cuts and deregulation would have been more successful
Curiously he makes a better argument in justifying Trump calling for interest rate cuts
Curiously he makes a better argument in justifying Trump calling for interest rate cuts
October 10, 2025 at 6:56 AM
I quibble with just one line. He provides good evidence on the first argument ..but in this piece offers no evidence that tax cuts and deregulation would have been more successful
Curiously he makes a better argument in justifying Trump calling for interest rate cuts
Curiously he makes a better argument in justifying Trump calling for interest rate cuts
Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
October 10, 2025 at 6:55 AM
Enjoyed this essay by economic historian Scott Bessent
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bes...
He highlights how the Fed kept over-estimating the growth benefits of QE
Also hints here about how the Fed may have contributed to the dissatisfaction which led to Trump’s victory in 2024
Bernanke, 2008
September 30, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Bernanke, 2008
A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
September 30, 2025 at 5:48 AM
A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...
WSJ online led with Cook court cases twice in recent weeks (FT didn’t). Today WSJ leading with credit market .. FT UK with a story about Jaguar Land Rover
September 29, 2025 at 7:14 AM
WSJ online led with Cook court cases twice in recent weeks (FT didn’t). Today WSJ leading with credit market .. FT UK with a story about Jaguar Land Rover
The 2021 paper on inelastic markets cited in the FT piece; the conclusion page has a quote or two to throw into market conversations
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...
September 21, 2025 at 8:29 AM
The 2021 paper on inelastic markets cited in the FT piece; the conclusion page has a quote or two to throw into market conversations
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...
Very interesting history here ..about the connection between supply and demand of money for mortgages.
The building society model kept the pace the of house prices connected to household earnings
(John Plender, FT big read)
The building society model kept the pace the of house prices connected to household earnings
(John Plender, FT big read)
September 4, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Very interesting history here ..about the connection between supply and demand of money for mortgages.
The building society model kept the pace the of house prices connected to household earnings
(John Plender, FT big read)
The building society model kept the pace the of house prices connected to household earnings
(John Plender, FT big read)
This is a curious story .. would be good to see some more media digging on this
The investment pledges are enormous
The lack of transparency about Gulf sovereign wealth funds is a contributory factor
Now the pledge to Botswana is being cited in a FT story to do with diamonds
The investment pledges are enormous
The lack of transparency about Gulf sovereign wealth funds is a contributory factor
Now the pledge to Botswana is being cited in a FT story to do with diamonds
August 28, 2025 at 7:52 AM
This is a curious story .. would be good to see some more media digging on this
The investment pledges are enormous
The lack of transparency about Gulf sovereign wealth funds is a contributory factor
Now the pledge to Botswana is being cited in a FT story to do with diamonds
The investment pledges are enormous
The lack of transparency about Gulf sovereign wealth funds is a contributory factor
Now the pledge to Botswana is being cited in a FT story to do with diamonds
Indonesia industrialised in line with the education, fertility and electricity thesis of @TTTEconomist but has now seen manufacturing shrink from 32% to 19% of GDP
The article suggests too much focus on Indonesia’s plentiful natural resources + these reasons
www.ft.com/content/0eb1...
The article suggests too much focus on Indonesia’s plentiful natural resources + these reasons
www.ft.com/content/0eb1...
August 21, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Indonesia industrialised in line with the education, fertility and electricity thesis of @TTTEconomist but has now seen manufacturing shrink from 32% to 19% of GDP
The article suggests too much focus on Indonesia’s plentiful natural resources + these reasons
www.ft.com/content/0eb1...
The article suggests too much focus on Indonesia’s plentiful natural resources + these reasons
www.ft.com/content/0eb1...
For wheat and corn.. prices are pretty flat over the past 10-15 years (so down in real terms) despite rising temperatures.
The 2022 spike was markets misinterpreting sanctions risk on Russia.
The 2022 spike was markets misinterpreting sanctions risk on Russia.
August 20, 2025 at 12:25 PM
For wheat and corn.. prices are pretty flat over the past 10-15 years (so down in real terms) despite rising temperatures.
The 2022 spike was markets misinterpreting sanctions risk on Russia.
The 2022 spike was markets misinterpreting sanctions risk on Russia.
In The Time Travelling Economist, I showed why Botswana has been so successful as a country vs other commodity exporters like Congo, Nigeria or Zambia.
That story must now be over.
Second chart is Botswana’s exports of rough diamonds
That story must now be over.
Second chart is Botswana’s exports of rough diamonds
July 23, 2025 at 11:32 AM
In The Time Travelling Economist, I showed why Botswana has been so successful as a country vs other commodity exporters like Congo, Nigeria or Zambia.
That story must now be over.
Second chart is Botswana’s exports of rough diamonds
That story must now be over.
Second chart is Botswana’s exports of rough diamonds
Actually far worse than that, at least for small diamonds. The price of lab diamonds is now 1/16th of natural diamonds, vs 1/2 just a few years. And one carat lab diamond can be made for roughly $50 and polished in India for around $10
July 23, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Actually far worse than that, at least for small diamonds. The price of lab diamonds is now 1/16th of natural diamonds, vs 1/2 just a few years. And one carat lab diamond can be made for roughly $50 and polished in India for around $10
Meeting with Tanzania central bank governor Tutuba yesterday and we didn’t talk about Trump at all. It was great
July 17, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Meeting with Tanzania central bank governor Tutuba yesterday and we didn’t talk about Trump at all. It was great
After 3 months of negotiations and great trade deals, the average tariff to be imposed on 1 August, is down just 1 percentage point from those imposed in early April
Trump wants this consumption tax on Americans to cut the budget deficit by $300bn or 1% of GDP
Trump wants this consumption tax on Americans to cut the budget deficit by $300bn or 1% of GDP
July 10, 2025 at 7:08 AM
After 3 months of negotiations and great trade deals, the average tariff to be imposed on 1 August, is down just 1 percentage point from those imposed in early April
Trump wants this consumption tax on Americans to cut the budget deficit by $300bn or 1% of GDP
Trump wants this consumption tax on Americans to cut the budget deficit by $300bn or 1% of GDP
Good to see some African equity markets powering ahead this year:
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention
July 8, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Good to see some African equity markets powering ahead this year:
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention