Zav Corin
@zavcorin.bsky.social
🚵- ⛷️ bum, Chamonix
co-founder of Futureflow, Ex IRO/CDS Trader
Ex “🏆winning” Macro PM / Partner 3bn $ HF
Invented CDS Choice Friday and Liquidity 🎄
Long term views only…
co-founder of Futureflow, Ex IRO/CDS Trader
Ex “🏆winning” Macro PM / Partner 3bn $ HF
Invented CDS Choice Friday and Liquidity 🎄
Long term views only…
Pinned
Zav Corin
@zavcorin.bsky.social
· Sep 19
Useful reminder : Trend following models do not account for political risk. They just follow and amplify the trend(s)
In the short / medium term, the stock market is NOT the economy but is EVEN LESS the implied estimate of a country's risk premium over time...
In the short / medium term, the stock market is NOT the economy but is EVEN LESS the implied estimate of a country's risk premium over time...
Reposted by Zav Corin
“I would therefore strongly urge the United States to stop threatening a historically close ally and another country and people who have made it very clear that they are not for sale.”
January 4, 2026 at 9:40 PM
“I would therefore strongly urge the United States to stop threatening a historically close ally and another country and people who have made it very clear that they are not for sale.”
Reposted by Zav Corin
Here is a link to my latest about this weekend’s events. Longtime followers will recognize the themes in the below shots also link back to about a decade’s worth of venting about drivers of the dollar and LatAm Political Economy. responsiblestatecraft.org/venezuela-oil/
January 4, 2026 at 7:32 PM
Here is a link to my latest about this weekend’s events. Longtime followers will recognize the themes in the below shots also link back to about a decade’s worth of venting about drivers of the dollar and LatAm Political Economy. responsiblestatecraft.org/venezuela-oil/
2026 "Fintwit wannabes"
January 4, 2026 at 5:42 PM
2026 "Fintwit wannabes"
January 4, 2026 at 1:50 PM
Reposted by Zav Corin
Ms. Machado had “gone out of her way to please [Trump], calling him a ‘champion of freedom,’ mimicking his talking points on election fraud in the United States and even dedicating her Peace Prize to him.
“It was in vain.”
@nytimes.com 🇻🇪
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
“It was in vain.”
@nytimes.com 🇻🇪
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
January 4, 2026 at 1:34 PM
Ms. Machado had “gone out of her way to please [Trump], calling him a ‘champion of freedom,’ mimicking his talking points on election fraud in the United States and even dedicating her Peace Prize to him.
“It was in vain.”
@nytimes.com 🇻🇪
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
“It was in vain.”
@nytimes.com 🇻🇪
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...
Reposted by Zav Corin
Why should Trump stop at Venezuela? They’re champing at the bit for territorial expansion. Katie Miller, Stephen Miller‘s wife, posted a map of Greenland marked as a US territory with the words „SOON“.
January 3, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Why should Trump stop at Venezuela? They’re champing at the bit for territorial expansion. Katie Miller, Stephen Miller‘s wife, posted a map of Greenland marked as a US territory with the words „SOON“.
Reposted by Zav Corin
Yeah and there is as yet no credible mechanism to secure any investments into increasing Venezuelan supply. Canadian leverage is intact for now. New regime seems to be opposed to US taking over its oil. So US is going to have to do it by force, which will cost more than it will be worth.
An immensely tired & uninformed take.
Canada currently:
- exports >4x Venezuelan crude shipments
- that supply is linked to American refineries by pipelines that travel one direction (south)
- no one is rushing into Venezuela to roll the dice *again* on whoever replaces Maduro
Canada currently:
- exports >4x Venezuelan crude shipments
- that supply is linked to American refineries by pipelines that travel one direction (south)
- no one is rushing into Venezuela to roll the dice *again* on whoever replaces Maduro
January 3, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Yeah and there is as yet no credible mechanism to secure any investments into increasing Venezuelan supply. Canadian leverage is intact for now. New regime seems to be opposed to US taking over its oil. So US is going to have to do it by force, which will cost more than it will be worth.
1 Point 2 MILLION Followers....
January 3, 2026 at 10:11 PM
1 Point 2 MILLION Followers....
Reposted by Zav Corin
Rodriguez's main messages were that Maduro is still President of Venezuela, and that the government will not yield to the US' attempt to take over its oil resources.
Again, no indication at all that she's collaborating with Washington, which Trump indicated was the case earlier today.
Again, no indication at all that she's collaborating with Washington, which Trump indicated was the case earlier today.
January 3, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Rodriguez's main messages were that Maduro is still President of Venezuela, and that the government will not yield to the US' attempt to take over its oil resources.
Again, no indication at all that she's collaborating with Washington, which Trump indicated was the case earlier today.
Again, no indication at all that she's collaborating with Washington, which Trump indicated was the case earlier today.
Reposted by Zav Corin
I don't think tis is an economic proposition at all, but saying it like this is 'we are going to steal the oil and not compensate the Venezuelans, and use that to pay for the occupation. And that is going to stiffen the resolve of Venezuelans to resist any occupation because why would they not?
Trump: "It's not going to cost us anything because of the money coming out of the ground."
January 3, 2026 at 7:39 PM
I don't think tis is an economic proposition at all, but saying it like this is 'we are going to steal the oil and not compensate the Venezuelans, and use that to pay for the occupation. And that is going to stiffen the resolve of Venezuelans to resist any occupation because why would they not?
Reposted by Zav Corin
Fascinating.
Nothing is too crazy to not be possible these days.
Nothing is too crazy to not be possible these days.
The cynics think today's attack on Venezuela is staged and transactional. Maduro is allied with Putin, but in 2019 Putin offered Trump a swap: Russia cedes Venezuela and gets Ukraine. (See Fiona Hill's testimony in Trump's first impeachment trial, h/t @davetroy.com). Even Maduro may be in on it. 2/
January 3, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Fascinating.
Nothing is too crazy to not be possible these days.
Nothing is too crazy to not be possible these days.
Trump : creditor seniority for Venz listed as follows
- Contractual obligations under past oil exploration contracts to US companies
-...
-...
-....
- Russian and China bilateral, Eurobonds, etc...
Oil proceeds split as follows
- US companies
- US govt
-....
-...
- Debt Servicing
- population
- Contractual obligations under past oil exploration contracts to US companies
-...
-...
-....
- Russian and China bilateral, Eurobonds, etc...
Oil proceeds split as follows
- US companies
- US govt
-....
-...
- Debt Servicing
- population
Trump says Venezuela's oil wealth "goes also to the United States of America in the form of reimbursement for the damages caused us by that country"
January 3, 2026 at 6:47 PM
Trump : creditor seniority for Venz listed as follows
- Contractual obligations under past oil exploration contracts to US companies
-...
-...
-....
- Russian and China bilateral, Eurobonds, etc...
Oil proceeds split as follows
- US companies
- US govt
-....
-...
- Debt Servicing
- population
- Contractual obligations under past oil exploration contracts to US companies
-...
-...
-....
- Russian and China bilateral, Eurobonds, etc...
Oil proceeds split as follows
- US companies
- US govt
-....
-...
- Debt Servicing
- population
Reposted by Zav Corin
Even short of deposing them could make the costs of production prohibitive. Can’t see how this can be economic or done on a voluntary basis by private US companies, not without financial guarantees. (Which put the security risks on the US govt).
January 3, 2026 at 5:51 PM
Even short of deposing them could make the costs of production prohibitive. Can’t see how this can be economic or done on a voluntary basis by private US companies, not without financial guarantees. (Which put the security risks on the US govt).
Reposted by Zav Corin
This is gonna be a freakin' mess.
January 3, 2026 at 5:27 PM
This is gonna be a freakin' mess.
Bullish.....
Trump on Colombia’s President: He has factories where he makes cocaine. He does have to watch his ass.
January 3, 2026 at 5:25 PM
Bullish.....
Reposted by Zav Corin
IMO, the EU’s hard right parties are increasingly likely to conclude that from the point of maintaining sovereignty in today’s world, it is better to stay in the EU/take it over in serial national elections rather than to leave the EU. Which is not what their fans in DC think.
The interesting question stemming from MLP/Bardella’s statements on VZ is “what is RN view on the tradeoffs for France between pooling sovereignty in an EU where it remains a leading power —P5/Nukes/Commission/CB slots—vs. a US/JD view that EU members would be more sovereign if the EU dissolved.”
January 3, 2026 at 5:15 PM
IMO, the EU’s hard right parties are increasingly likely to conclude that from the point of maintaining sovereignty in today’s world, it is better to stay in the EU/take it over in serial national elections rather than to leave the EU. Which is not what their fans in DC think.
Iraq 3.0...
Q: Will US troops be on the ground?
TRUMP: We're not afraid of boots on the ground if we have to have it
TRUMP: We're not afraid of boots on the ground if we have to have it
January 3, 2026 at 5:21 PM
Iraq 3.0...
Reposted by Zav Corin
Imagine la MAGAsphère si Joe Biden avait été à l’origine d’une frappe militaire et d’un renversement de Maduro au Venezuela.
January 3, 2026 at 1:39 PM
Imagine la MAGAsphère si Joe Biden avait été à l’origine d’une frappe militaire et d’un renversement de Maduro au Venezuela.
Reposted by Zav Corin
Or, as per the OP in those quote posts, if we really are back to G2+1 giving each other free rein in their sphere of influence, perhaps we see the return of full-on local dictator patronage to fend off the competing behemoth. Mobutu Suharto times, we are so back
January 3, 2026 at 12:18 PM
Or, as per the OP in those quote posts, if we really are back to G2+1 giving each other free rein in their sphere of influence, perhaps we see the return of full-on local dictator patronage to fend off the competing behemoth. Mobutu Suharto times, we are so back
Just played around with ChatGPT and asked to work out recovery for Venez Debt... using 1.25M b/l export / day vs 2M bl production....
Short version : it will not recover at 80 cents / $ ;)
Short version : it will not recover at 80 cents / $ ;)
January 3, 2026 at 12:39 PM
Just played around with ChatGPT and asked to work out recovery for Venez Debt... using 1.25M b/l export / day vs 2M bl production....
Short version : it will not recover at 80 cents / $ ;)
Short version : it will not recover at 80 cents / $ ;)
The real question nobody can answer now is what role China played / what did they know.. China had a representation in Caracas 12 hours ago… either they were trying to negotiate an exit with him / were messengers or they were completely unaware of what was going to happen to one of their key allies…
January 3, 2026 at 11:16 AM
The real question nobody can answer now is what role China played / what did they know.. China had a representation in Caracas 12 hours ago… either they were trying to negotiate an exit with him / were messengers or they were completely unaware of what was going to happen to one of their key allies…
Reposted by Zav Corin
Russia signed a treaty to defend Venezuela just two months ago but its crickets this morning from the Kremlin. Utter humiliation and evidence of just how weak it is globally.
January 3, 2026 at 9:33 AM
Russia signed a treaty to defend Venezuela just two months ago but its crickets this morning from the Kremlin. Utter humiliation and evidence of just how weak it is globally.
Overnight news summary...
January 3, 2026 at 10:26 AM
Overnight news summary...
Whot ????
President Trump said on Saturday that the U.S. had captured the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro. Follow live updates. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...
January 3, 2026 at 10:16 AM
Whot ????
Regime changes in Latam have never been tried properly
January 3, 2026 at 9:32 AM
Regime changes in Latam have never been tried properly