FPL Diplomat
@fpldiplomat.bsky.social
Avid fantasy sports enjoyer, FPL and F1 player, Analytics FC Rookie
BB30
Haaland to JP
Minteh to Salah
Kluivert to Eze
Salah C
OR 168k
Good luck all!!!
Haaland to JP
Minteh to Salah
Kluivert to Eze
Salah C
OR 168k
Good luck all!!!
April 1, 2025 at 5:10 PM
BB30
Haaland to JP
Minteh to Salah
Kluivert to Eze
Salah C
OR 168k
Good luck all!!!
Haaland to JP
Minteh to Salah
Kluivert to Eze
Salah C
OR 168k
Good luck all!!!
I've been avoiding this long enough, WC29 went horrendously, but we keep going... spoiler alert, I'm gonna do BB30.
April 1, 2025 at 7:54 AM
I've been avoiding this long enough, WC29 went horrendously, but we keep going... spoiler alert, I'm gonna do BB30.
Activated my WC, going all in.
Haaland C.
OR around 108k.
Good luck all!!!
Haaland C.
OR around 108k.
Good luck all!!!
March 15, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Activated my WC, going all in.
Haaland C.
OR around 108k.
Good luck all!!!
Haaland C.
OR around 108k.
Good luck all!!!
So this is what negative variance looks like... Considering what happened it could have been a lot worse.
March 11, 2025 at 8:28 AM
So this is what negative variance looks like... Considering what happened it could have been a lot worse.
I guess I haven't learned my lesson yet.
Rolling to 3fts.
Palmer Cap.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
Rolling to 3fts.
Palmer Cap.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
March 8, 2025 at 10:55 AM
I guess I haven't learned my lesson yet.
Rolling to 3fts.
Palmer Cap.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
Rolling to 3fts.
Palmer Cap.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
Another meh GW, I hesitate to rant too much, because I did get a green arrow, but I'm not happy. The plan is to roll into 29 and then acquire the services of the big blonde robot and atleast one of his teammates.
February 28, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Another meh GW, I hesitate to rant too much, because I did get a green arrow, but I'm not happy. The plan is to roll into 29 and then acquire the services of the big blonde robot and atleast one of his teammates.
Lucky enough to roll to 2 FTs.
Palmer C
OR around 86k
Analytics managers assemble!!!
Good luck all!!!
Palmer C
OR around 86k
Analytics managers assemble!!!
Good luck all!!!
February 25, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Lucky enough to roll to 2 FTs.
Palmer C
OR around 86k
Analytics managers assemble!!!
Good luck all!!!
Palmer C
OR around 86k
Analytics managers assemble!!!
Good luck all!!!
Not the GW I wanted, but that's life... Hopefully I'm rolling for the next 2 GWs.
February 24, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Not the GW I wanted, but that's life... Hopefully I'm rolling for the next 2 GWs.
Let's keep the good time rolling... Brought in Dango for Eze.
Salah C
Around 43k OR
Good luck all!!!
Salah C
Around 43k OR
Good luck all!!!
February 21, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Let's keep the good time rolling... Brought in Dango for Eze.
Salah C
Around 43k OR
Good luck all!!!
Salah C
Around 43k OR
Good luck all!!!
These are the gains we want, 81k to 42k. Now I have to decide what's the plan for GW 26, AM switch, or Eze to Dango, I have till friday to decide.
February 20, 2025 at 6:31 AM
These are the gains we want, 81k to 42k. Now I have to decide what's the plan for GW 26, AM switch, or Eze to Dango, I have till friday to decide.
I decided to attack the DGW, used all 3 of my FTs, did Moyes to Emery, Bruno to Nwaneri and Ndiaye to Watkins.
Salah C.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
Salah C.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
February 14, 2025 at 6:10 PM
I decided to attack the DGW, used all 3 of my FTs, did Moyes to Emery, Bruno to Nwaneri and Ndiaye to Watkins.
Salah C.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
Salah C.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!
Considering everything I'm happy with this GWs result. One ft is certain, Moyes to Emery, I still need to work out if it's worth it to use the other 2 fts.
February 13, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Considering everything I'm happy with this GWs result. One ft is certain, Moyes to Emery, I still need to work out if it's worth it to use the other 2 fts.
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
Can Graham Potter succeed as West Ham’s manager?
— Statistical analysis of his progress at Brighton
— Media work and managing players
— Overly pragmatic: a concern?
— A suboptimal environment for goalscoring
Free to read at: instinctive.substack.com/p/graham-pot... 👈
— Statistical analysis of his progress at Brighton
— Media work and managing players
— Overly pragmatic: a concern?
— A suboptimal environment for goalscoring
Free to read at: instinctive.substack.com/p/graham-pot... 👈
Graham Potter
And the Magical Whimsy of Pragmatism
instinctive.substack.com
February 11, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Can Graham Potter succeed as West Ham’s manager?
— Statistical analysis of his progress at Brighton
— Media work and managing players
— Overly pragmatic: a concern?
— A suboptimal environment for goalscoring
Free to read at: instinctive.substack.com/p/graham-pot... 👈
— Statistical analysis of his progress at Brighton
— Media work and managing players
— Overly pragmatic: a concern?
— A suboptimal environment for goalscoring
Free to read at: instinctive.substack.com/p/graham-pot... 👈
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
💹 So far this season, PL home advantage is at a 20-year low (excl. 20/21)
Goals (xG) per game:
🔹Home – 1.54 (1.50)
🔹Away – 1.49 (1.40)
Markets still pricing home teams +0.30 goals per game, in line with historical trends - suggests they're sceptical this dip will continue! 👇
Goals (xG) per game:
🔹Home – 1.54 (1.50)
🔹Away – 1.49 (1.40)
Markets still pricing home teams +0.30 goals per game, in line with historical trends - suggests they're sceptical this dip will continue! 👇
February 10, 2025 at 12:09 PM
💹 So far this season, PL home advantage is at a 20-year low (excl. 20/21)
Goals (xG) per game:
🔹Home – 1.54 (1.50)
🔹Away – 1.49 (1.40)
Markets still pricing home teams +0.30 goals per game, in line with historical trends - suggests they're sceptical this dip will continue! 👇
Goals (xG) per game:
🔹Home – 1.54 (1.50)
🔹Away – 1.49 (1.40)
Markets still pricing home teams +0.30 goals per game, in line with historical trends - suggests they're sceptical this dip will continue! 👇
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
I wrote a little bit about quantifying the impact of fatigue on ball-striking/finishing for players. Do players get tired in-game? Or between games without rest?
talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...
talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...
Do Tired Players Shoot Worse?
Or are elite athletes too good to care?
talatabont.substack.com
February 8, 2025 at 12:58 PM
I wrote a little bit about quantifying the impact of fatigue on ball-striking/finishing for players. Do players get tired in-game? Or between games without rest?
talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...
talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
February 7, 2025 at 3:22 PM
GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
Injuries in Football: A Case Study
— Muscular vs. Contact Injuries
— Over/Undertraining
— Preventing Injuries
— Adapting to Injuries
Free to read: instinctive.substack.com/p/injuries-i... 👈
— Muscular vs. Contact Injuries
— Over/Undertraining
— Preventing Injuries
— Adapting to Injuries
Free to read: instinctive.substack.com/p/injuries-i... 👈
Injuries in Football: A Case Study
The Anatomy of a Defensive Line
instinctive.substack.com
February 4, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Injuries in Football: A Case Study
— Muscular vs. Contact Injuries
— Over/Undertraining
— Preventing Injuries
— Adapting to Injuries
Free to read: instinctive.substack.com/p/injuries-i... 👈
— Muscular vs. Contact Injuries
— Over/Undertraining
— Preventing Injuries
— Adapting to Injuries
Free to read: instinctive.substack.com/p/injuries-i... 👈
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴
February 4, 2025 at 1:53 PM
A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
⚔️ Merseyside Derby Impact on the AM24 Points Gap
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
February 4, 2025 at 12:44 PM
⚔️ Merseyside Derby Impact on the AM24 Points Gap
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
Welcome to Solio Analytics.
February 2, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Welcome to Solio Analytics.
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
#FPL Some updates for AM integration to FPLOptimized tools:
- Started with minor fixes; and Live GW and Highlights pages are working.
- Projected points for GW24 will be manually updated soon to include AM. Right now all AMs have 0 prP, but will be fixed.
- AM projections are automated for future.
- Started with minor fixes; and Live GW and Highlights pages are working.
- Projected points for GW24 will be manually updated soon to include AM. Right now all AMs have 0 prP, but will be fixed.
- AM projections are automated for future.
February 1, 2025 at 7:12 PM
#FPL Some updates for AM integration to FPLOptimized tools:
- Started with minor fixes; and Live GW and Highlights pages are working.
- Projected points for GW24 will be manually updated soon to include AM. Right now all AMs have 0 prP, but will be fixed.
- AM projections are automated for future.
- Started with minor fixes; and Live GW and Highlights pages are working.
- Projected points for GW24 will be manually updated soon to include AM. Right now all AMs have 0 prP, but will be fixed.
- AM projections are automated for future.
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
Update after each team's first game:
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
February 1, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Update after each team's first game:
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
3/5 FTs used (Burgess to VVD, Isak to Ndiaye and Flekken to Pickford).
Ass man activated on Moyes.
Salah C.
OR 84k.
Moral of the story is dont do early transfers.
Good luck all!!!
Ass man activated on Moyes.
Salah C.
OR 84k.
Moral of the story is dont do early transfers.
Good luck all!!!
February 1, 2025 at 8:49 AM
3/5 FTs used (Burgess to VVD, Isak to Ndiaye and Flekken to Pickford).
Ass man activated on Moyes.
Salah C.
OR 84k.
Moral of the story is dont do early transfers.
Good luck all!!!
Ass man activated on Moyes.
Salah C.
OR 84k.
Moral of the story is dont do early transfers.
Good luck all!!!
Reposted by FPL Diplomat
💹 PL DGW24 matchups
First look at projected goals, clean sheet % and WDL odds for the weekend's round of Premier League games, via betting markets - and some projected #FPL assistant manager points
First look at projected goals, clean sheet % and WDL odds for the weekend's round of Premier League games, via betting markets - and some projected #FPL assistant manager points
January 29, 2025 at 8:43 AM
💹 PL DGW24 matchups
First look at projected goals, clean sheet % and WDL odds for the weekend's round of Premier League games, via betting markets - and some projected #FPL assistant manager points
First look at projected goals, clean sheet % and WDL odds for the weekend's round of Premier League games, via betting markets - and some projected #FPL assistant manager points
Another slight red arrow, I have 5 FTs, this is where the fun begins!
January 27, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Another slight red arrow, I have 5 FTs, this is where the fun begins!