What a weird Arsenal match.

Obviously trying to play more vertical. Ode might be the worst transition player I've ever seen, despite a good performance.

Felt like UCL final intensity with championship level final actions today.

The last time a promoted side won a game vs. a non promoted side by a GD of 3 or more was 18 months ago when Luton beat Brighton 4-0

Good sign for the promoted teams, we might finally have a relegation battle!

Last year it didn't happen
The year before only once

22/23 it happened 3 times!

Liverpool just sold ~30% of last year’s minutes… after winning the league.

Quite rare I think.

Here are some thoughts on how they've approached this summer, criticisms I have of their business, and general thoughts on where they are!

talatabont.substack.com/p/transfer-s...

Premier League Injuries updated through 2025/02/27, including an update for the percentage of total team value lost for and against.

let's be honest, in the 'which of the continental tournaments are valuable in comparison to each other' debate, the wrongly-rated one is the Copa America. Routinely a dreadful tournament, such poor quality. Tough to place too much focus on a Brazilian/Argentine winning it. Obv a huge deal for others

I was mostly OK with Arsenal not doing much in Jan (although think Tels is a star).

I have lots of questions about last summer though!

What was the plan if Sterling didn't happen?

I wrote a little bit about quantifying the impact of fatigue on ball-striking/finishing for players. Do players get tired in-game? Or between games without rest?

talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...

Things I want for this UCL night:
- a red zone with all high xG misses and chances
- a model that tells me which next goal would be most impactful for top 4, top 8, top 16 chances
- A live look at draw outcomes at all times

But apparently TVs don't even do PIP anymore and none of the above exists?

Increasingly convinced that MLS + Timber make the Arsenal attack go

Unsure if it's completely a good thing?

With Ethan hurt & another controversial ref call, that about wraps it up for league play.

Frustrating to talk about refs, but this is the league that said the Doku/MacA 50/50 wasn't a pen and the Saliba one is a carbon copy with less contact.

Get healthy, go for cups, go again next year!

Tier 3 of the Ultimate Draft (players 9 through 12 today):

talatabont.substack.com/p/ultimate-d...

In it:
- A breakdown which attacking midfielder to draft first (Foden, Palmer, Musiala, Wirtz)
- A 2nd surprise entrance by a defender in the top 12
- Who are the best Pep era signings at City?

Watching the Man City games this week, and the before/after of the Rice sub today, will tell you much if what you need to know about the Premier League in 2025.

Can you interrupt things at their source? If not, can you run?

As someone who's been quite bullish on Arsenal all year, that was the first truly bad performance that has me changing my mind a little.

Zooming out though, they are at the same npxGD as last year 11v11 and have gotten all their injury luck of last year back and then some.

Missed last few Sundays, so back with something a little funner:

A draft rankings of who I’d draft if I were starting a football club today and could sign anyone

Each tier is 4 players.

These are players 8 through 5.

talatabont.substack.com/p/tb-ultimat...

Introducing 1v1s
- How would we define a football 1v1 using
@statsbomb.com 360 data?
- Are 1v1s valuable?
- The best offenses & defenses creating, stopping, and maximizing 1v1s
- the players most reliant on 1v1s
- the passers that help create 1v1s

talatabont.substack.com/p/introducin...