Instinctive
@fplinstinctive.bsky.social
instinctive.substack.com | FPL — Brighton Predictor, Threads, and Analytics | Writer — Economics and Psychology | Football and Tactics | UCL and F1 Fantasy
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The Wieffer Conundrum
Mitigating weaknesses, maximising skillsets
instinctive.substack.com
The Wieffer Conundrum
I analyse what Wieffer's best position is, and how to best mitigate players' weaknesses and amplify their strengths.
— Mistimed tackles and a lack of mobility
— A momentum problem
— Systemic influences
— Volume of duels
OUT NOW: instinctive.substack.com/p/the-wieffe... 👈
I analyse what Wieffer's best position is, and how to best mitigate players' weaknesses and amplify their strengths.
— Mistimed tackles and a lack of mobility
— A momentum problem
— Systemic influences
— Volume of duels
OUT NOW: instinctive.substack.com/p/the-wieffe... 👈
Manchester City vs Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
January 6, 2026 at 4:48 PM
Manchester City vs Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
Hürzeler on Mats Wieffer and Yankuba Minteh:
“Yeah Mats Wieffer won’t be available, he still has an issue with his toe. (And) regards Minteh, we need to have a look. So it’s still not perfect, but there’s a minor chance he will be available tomorrow.”
“Yeah Mats Wieffer won’t be available, he still has an issue with his toe. (And) regards Minteh, we need to have a look. So it’s still not perfect, but there’s a minor chance he will be available tomorrow.”
January 6, 2026 at 4:47 PM
Hürzeler on Mats Wieffer and Yankuba Minteh:
“Yeah Mats Wieffer won’t be available, he still has an issue with his toe. (And) regards Minteh, we need to have a look. So it’s still not perfect, but there’s a minor chance he will be available tomorrow.”
“Yeah Mats Wieffer won’t be available, he still has an issue with his toe. (And) regards Minteh, we need to have a look. So it’s still not perfect, but there’s a minor chance he will be available tomorrow.”
I don’t think you can overstate van Hecke’s ZOI.
Brighton can build up in a 2-1, knowing that if they ever get pressured, they can simply play through the middle (where they’ve baited the opposition into) or switch play into a winger with an excellent first touch (Mitoma).
Brighton can build up in a 2-1, knowing that if they ever get pressured, they can simply play through the middle (where they’ve baited the opposition into) or switch play into a winger with an excellent first touch (Mitoma).
January 3, 2026 at 3:19 PM
I don’t think you can overstate van Hecke’s ZOI.
Brighton can build up in a 2-1, knowing that if they ever get pressured, they can simply play through the middle (where they’ve baited the opposition into) or switch play into a winger with an excellent first touch (Mitoma).
Brighton can build up in a 2-1, knowing that if they ever get pressured, they can simply play through the middle (where they’ve baited the opposition into) or switch play into a winger with an excellent first touch (Mitoma).
Brighton vs. Burnley | Starting XIs:
January 3, 2026 at 1:51 PM
Brighton vs. Burnley | Starting XIs:
Brighton vs. Burnley | Predicted Lineup:
January 2, 2026 at 4:31 PM
Brighton vs. Burnley | Predicted Lineup:
Thinking Rosenior can’t command respect because of one video, yet believing Maresca could because of success with City’s U21 side, even whilst he publicly sold his players down the river, is… interesting.
January 2, 2026 at 3:54 PM
Thinking Rosenior can’t command respect because of one video, yet believing Maresca could because of success with City’s U21 side, even whilst he publicly sold his players down the river, is… interesting.
Yankuba Minteh’s will train today. Mats Wieffer won’t be available.
[The Argus]
[The Argus]
January 2, 2026 at 9:07 AM
Yankuba Minteh’s will train today. Mats Wieffer won’t be available.
[The Argus]
[The Argus]
Fabian Hürzeler was asked about Minteh’s injury: “We need to have a scan and then we will see.”
December 30, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Fabian Hürzeler was asked about Minteh’s injury: “We need to have a scan and then we will see.”
West Ham vs. Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
December 30, 2025 at 3:47 PM
West Ham vs. Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
SCOUTING BRENNAN JOHNSON
When I was analysing Spurs, I took an in-depth look at Brennan Johnson.
— Freakishly efficient at crashing the back post
— Deceleration and shooting in stride
— A liability in deeper position
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/i/168052047/... 👈
When I was analysing Spurs, I took an in-depth look at Brennan Johnson.
— Freakishly efficient at crashing the back post
— Deceleration and shooting in stride
— A liability in deeper position
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/i/168052047/... 👈
Scouting Tottenham Hotspur
And How to Build Upon European Success
instinctive.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 12:24 PM
SCOUTING BRENNAN JOHNSON
When I was analysing Spurs, I took an in-depth look at Brennan Johnson.
— Freakishly efficient at crashing the back post
— Deceleration and shooting in stride
— A liability in deeper position
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/i/168052047/... 👈
When I was analysing Spurs, I took an in-depth look at Brennan Johnson.
— Freakishly efficient at crashing the back post
— Deceleration and shooting in stride
— A liability in deeper position
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/i/168052047/... 👈
Yankuba Minteh’s xMins don’t look as good as they once did. In fact, he may not even start vs. West Ham.
So I’ve written about what could help and hinder them, hoping to reach a reasonable conclusion on what to expect moving forward.
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/p/questionin... 👈
So I’ve written about what could help and hinder them, hoping to reach a reasonable conclusion on what to expect moving forward.
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/p/questionin... 👈
Questioning Minteh's xMins
...it's not looking good
instinctive.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Yankuba Minteh’s xMins don’t look as good as they once did. In fact, he may not even start vs. West Ham.
So I’ve written about what could help and hinder them, hoping to reach a reasonable conclusion on what to expect moving forward.
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/p/questionin... 👈
So I’ve written about what could help and hinder them, hoping to reach a reasonable conclusion on what to expect moving forward.
READ FOR FREE: instinctive.substack.com/p/questionin... 👈
Brighton score more goals p90, concede fewer goals p90, and win more points p90 under Hürzeler than they did under De Zerbi.
There’s a difference in spending, but a) the assumption is that the board drives transfers and b) the squad De Zerbi inherited was arguably far more suited to PL football.
There’s a difference in spending, but a) the assumption is that the board drives transfers and b) the squad De Zerbi inherited was arguably far more suited to PL football.
December 28, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Brighton score more goals p90, concede fewer goals p90, and win more points p90 under Hürzeler than they did under De Zerbi.
There’s a difference in spending, but a) the assumption is that the board drives transfers and b) the squad De Zerbi inherited was arguably far more suited to PL football.
There’s a difference in spending, but a) the assumption is that the board drives transfers and b) the squad De Zerbi inherited was arguably far more suited to PL football.
Arsenal vs. Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
December 26, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Arsenal vs. Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
While Hürzeler called Danny Welbeck a “great leader” and Brighton’s “best goalscorer”, he was less positive about his fitness:
“I wouldn't say worse. I wouldn't say better.
“It's still the same. He has a back issue. He couldn't train fully this week.
(1/2)
“I wouldn't say worse. I wouldn't say better.
“It's still the same. He has a back issue. He couldn't train fully this week.
(1/2)
Danny Welbeck and Maxim De Cuyper were suffering from “small issues” leading up to the fixture against Liverpool and, consequently, hadn’t trained the week prior, as reported by The Argus.
December 22, 2025 at 9:18 AM
While Hürzeler called Danny Welbeck a “great leader” and Brighton’s “best goalscorer”, he was less positive about his fitness:
“I wouldn't say worse. I wouldn't say better.
“It's still the same. He has a back issue. He couldn't train fully this week.
(1/2)
“I wouldn't say worse. I wouldn't say better.
“It's still the same. He has a back issue. He couldn't train fully this week.
(1/2)
Brighton vs. Sunderland | Predicted Lineup:
December 19, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Brighton vs. Sunderland | Predicted Lineup:
No bib theory this week.
December 19, 2025 at 2:50 PM
No bib theory this week.
Danny Welbeck and Maxim De Cuyper were suffering from “small issues” leading up to the fixture against Liverpool and, consequently, hadn’t trained the week prior, as reported by The Argus.
December 18, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Danny Welbeck and Maxim De Cuyper were suffering from “small issues” leading up to the fixture against Liverpool and, consequently, hadn’t trained the week prior, as reported by The Argus.
Gameweek 15: 9.3k → 6.5k
December 15, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Gameweek 15: 9.3k → 6.5k
Rotations between Georginio and Gruda will be key. If both stay deep enough, they can lure the CBs in a bit, while Gómez and Minteh stretch the pitch as outlets, giving Georginio and Gruda a lot of space to run into.
December 13, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Rotations between Georginio and Gruda will be key. If both stay deep enough, they can lure the CBs in a bit, while Gómez and Minteh stretch the pitch as outlets, giving Georginio and Gruda a lot of space to run into.
Liverpool vs. Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
December 12, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Liverpool vs. Brighton | Predicted Lineup:
The Wieffer Conundrum
I analyse what Wieffer's best position is, and how to best mitigate players' weaknesses and amplify their strengths.
— Mistimed tackles and a lack of mobility
— A momentum problem
— Systemic influences
— Volume of duels
OUT NOW: instinctive.substack.com/p/the-wieffe... 👈
I analyse what Wieffer's best position is, and how to best mitigate players' weaknesses and amplify their strengths.
— Mistimed tackles and a lack of mobility
— A momentum problem
— Systemic influences
— Volume of duels
OUT NOW: instinctive.substack.com/p/the-wieffe... 👈
The Wieffer Conundrum
Mitigating weaknesses, maximising skillsets
instinctive.substack.com
December 12, 2025 at 9:07 AM
The Wieffer Conundrum
I analyse what Wieffer's best position is, and how to best mitigate players' weaknesses and amplify their strengths.
— Mistimed tackles and a lack of mobility
— A momentum problem
— Systemic influences
— Volume of duels
OUT NOW: instinctive.substack.com/p/the-wieffe... 👈
I analyse what Wieffer's best position is, and how to best mitigate players' weaknesses and amplify their strengths.
— Mistimed tackles and a lack of mobility
— A momentum problem
— Systemic influences
— Volume of duels
OUT NOW: instinctive.substack.com/p/the-wieffe... 👈
— Sees the pass early; bends his run into space
— Receives and swivels on the half-turn
— Leverages a stiff arm (whilst still swivelling)
— Triggers his shot early (still swivelling)
That's my CF 💃
— Receives and swivels on the half-turn
— Leverages a stiff arm (whilst still swivelling)
— Triggers his shot early (still swivelling)
That's my CF 💃
December 11, 2025 at 9:55 PM
— Sees the pass early; bends his run into space
— Receives and swivels on the half-turn
— Leverages a stiff arm (whilst still swivelling)
— Triggers his shot early (still swivelling)
That's my CF 💃
— Receives and swivels on the half-turn
— Leverages a stiff arm (whilst still swivelling)
— Triggers his shot early (still swivelling)
That's my CF 💃
Gameweek 14: 15.1k → 9.3k
December 8, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Gameweek 14: 15.1k → 9.3k
Brighton’s low block looks really good. Minteh and de Cuyper are dropping back fast enough that even Wieffer/Dunk jump they have sweepers behind. It’s more sustainable than what we’ve seen in the past (phew).
December 7, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Brighton’s low block looks really good. Minteh and de Cuyper are dropping back fast enough that even Wieffer/Dunk jump they have sweepers behind. It’s more sustainable than what we’ve seen in the past (phew).
While this may be oversimplified/reductive, Brighton’s ceiling is (sorta) be limited by player retention. Keep top-end talent longer -> get proportionate results.
BUT at least current recruitment is doing a good job of maximising the floor (physicality + set-piece efficiency).
BUT at least current recruitment is doing a good job of maximising the floor (physicality + set-piece efficiency).
December 7, 2025 at 4:21 AM
While this may be oversimplified/reductive, Brighton’s ceiling is (sorta) be limited by player retention. Keep top-end talent longer -> get proportionate results.
BUT at least current recruitment is doing a good job of maximising the floor (physicality + set-piece efficiency).
BUT at least current recruitment is doing a good job of maximising the floor (physicality + set-piece efficiency).