Dmitry Grozoubinski
@explaintrade.com
Author of Why Politicians Lie About Trade | Trade and Negotiations Explainer. Forever D&D DM.
🇺🇦 Born. 🇦🇺 Raised. 🇨🇭 Based.
Media and training: explaintrade.com
Consultancy network: auroramacro.com
Speaking representation: cwgspeakers.com
🇺🇦 Born. 🇦🇺 Raised. 🇨🇭 Based.
Media and training: explaintrade.com
Consultancy network: auroramacro.com
Speaking representation: cwgspeakers.com
Did everyone remember to bring their consumables?
Potions, food, weapon oils, patriot missiles.
I'm looking at you, air defense battery covering the Black Sea.
Potions, food, weapon oils, patriot missiles.
I'm looking at you, air defense battery covering the Black Sea.
November 11, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Did everyone remember to bring their consumables?
Potions, food, weapon oils, patriot missiles.
I'm looking at you, air defense battery covering the Black Sea.
Potions, food, weapon oils, patriot missiles.
I'm looking at you, air defense battery covering the Black Sea.
China's modern national psyche is significantly built around the scars of Opium and Gunboat Diplomacy and an absolute, pathological aversion to ever again having its domestic policy be dictated to by the West.
What are we doing here?!
What are we doing here?!
November 10, 2025 at 10:52 PM
China's modern national psyche is significantly built around the scars of Opium and Gunboat Diplomacy and an absolute, pathological aversion to ever again having its domestic policy be dictated to by the West.
What are we doing here?!
What are we doing here?!
Couldn't agree more.
"Oh, we should have just used tariffs to keep China poor forever somehow."
or
"We should have made them (lol) replicate the Western model beat for beat through the awesome power of market access carrots."
Pfffffffffffffft.
bsky.app/profile/expl...
"Oh, we should have just used tariffs to keep China poor forever somehow."
or
"We should have made them (lol) replicate the Western model beat for beat through the awesome power of market access carrots."
Pfffffffffffffft.
bsky.app/profile/expl...
I also wish people would spell out the alternative proposal here.
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
"We should have kept tariffs and capital restrictions on China skyhigh in the hopes it never became a competitive industrial producer, trapping hundreds of millions in subsistance poverty and raising the cost of everything."
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
November 10, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Couldn't agree more.
"Oh, we should have just used tariffs to keep China poor forever somehow."
or
"We should have made them (lol) replicate the Western model beat for beat through the awesome power of market access carrots."
Pfffffffffffffft.
bsky.app/profile/expl...
"Oh, we should have just used tariffs to keep China poor forever somehow."
or
"We should have made them (lol) replicate the Western model beat for beat through the awesome power of market access carrots."
Pfffffffffffffft.
bsky.app/profile/expl...
I think you're wildly overestimating how much societal engineering you can do from 10,000km away by conditioning market access.
November 10, 2025 at 10:29 PM
I think you're wildly overestimating how much societal engineering you can do from 10,000km away by conditioning market access.
The far right of a *-different-* country!
November 9, 2025 at 6:50 PM
The far right of a *-different-* country!
I didn't even have a Samsung Galaxy, I had to send my mIRC trout slaps using a Samsung Solar System like some kind of medeival peasant.
November 9, 2025 at 6:48 PM
I didn't even have a Samsung Galaxy, I had to send my mIRC trout slaps using a Samsung Solar System like some kind of medeival peasant.
We had like iPhone 2's man. Shit was bleak.
a man with dreadlocks and a beard is making a funny face while wearing a white tank top .
Alt: a man with dreadlocks and a beard screaming in horror
media.tenor.com
November 9, 2025 at 6:48 PM
We had like iPhone 2's man. Shit was bleak.
I guess he'd make the case that the US trade deficit with the WORLD is a problem, so anything he does to get the imports side of the ledger down is good, even if it's with someone whom the US has a surplus with.
November 9, 2025 at 5:13 PM
I guess he'd make the case that the US trade deficit with the WORLD is a problem, so anything he does to get the imports side of the ledger down is good, even if it's with someone whom the US has a surplus with.
1. He'd need to get through the fillibuster to do it.
2. One of the things the Supreme Court is looking at is whether the Congress CAN delegate authority over a prime responsibility like taxation to the President, even if it wants to.
2. One of the things the Supreme Court is looking at is whether the Congress CAN delegate authority over a prime responsibility like taxation to the President, even if it wants to.
November 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
1. He'd need to get through the fillibuster to do it.
2. One of the things the Supreme Court is looking at is whether the Congress CAN delegate authority over a prime responsibility like taxation to the President, even if it wants to.
2. One of the things the Supreme Court is looking at is whether the Congress CAN delegate authority over a prime responsibility like taxation to the President, even if it wants to.
A trade deficit specifically with one country, or overall?
That's possible, but again then why not ban certain imports or introduce fixed instead of gradually jacking up their price at the border and hoping it all works itself out?
US Balance of Trade Chart is below, for reference.
That's possible, but again then why not ban certain imports or introduce fixed instead of gradually jacking up their price at the border and hoping it all works itself out?
US Balance of Trade Chart is below, for reference.
November 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
A trade deficit specifically with one country, or overall?
That's possible, but again then why not ban certain imports or introduce fixed instead of gradually jacking up their price at the border and hoping it all works itself out?
US Balance of Trade Chart is below, for reference.
That's possible, but again then why not ban certain imports or introduce fixed instead of gradually jacking up their price at the border and hoping it all works itself out?
US Balance of Trade Chart is below, for reference.
10/ Appreciate above is long, wonky and subjective.
Happy to clarify anything or accept rebuttals.
Happy to clarify anything or accept rebuttals.
November 9, 2025 at 4:53 PM
10/ Appreciate above is long, wonky and subjective.
Happy to clarify anything or accept rebuttals.
Happy to clarify anything or accept rebuttals.
9/ When you have raging forest fires and high winds, you ban lighting bonfires in the forest.
You don't somewhat increase the tax on firewood and matches in the hopes hikers gradually shift to warmer blankets.
Tariffs are not emergency tools, and that's why IEEPA didn't include them. 🤷♂️
You don't somewhat increase the tax on firewood and matches in the hopes hikers gradually shift to warmer blankets.
Tariffs are not emergency tools, and that's why IEEPA didn't include them. 🤷♂️
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
9/ When you have raging forest fires and high winds, you ban lighting bonfires in the forest.
You don't somewhat increase the tax on firewood and matches in the hopes hikers gradually shift to warmer blankets.
Tariffs are not emergency tools, and that's why IEEPA didn't include them. 🤷♂️
You don't somewhat increase the tax on firewood and matches in the hopes hikers gradually shift to warmer blankets.
Tariffs are not emergency tools, and that's why IEEPA didn't include them. 🤷♂️
8/ Unlike licensing, you don't have much control over the specific actors that continue trading through tariffs.
You're sort of filtering for the best value or hardest to replace vendors, but it's not the same as vetting a business or transaction and issuing it a permit.
You're sort of filtering for the best value or hardest to replace vendors, but it's not the same as vetting a business or transaction and issuing it a permit.
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
8/ Unlike licensing, you don't have much control over the specific actors that continue trading through tariffs.
You're sort of filtering for the best value or hardest to replace vendors, but it's not the same as vetting a business or transaction and issuing it a permit.
You're sort of filtering for the best value or hardest to replace vendors, but it's not the same as vetting a business or transaction and issuing it a permit.
7/ Tariffs do neither of these things.
A tariff rate of 10,000% is effectively a ban, but someone could still theoretically pay it.
A tariff rate low enough people will still pay it just gradually nudges business away from that sourcing.
Not very emergency-ish.
A tariff rate of 10,000% is effectively a ban, but someone could still theoretically pay it.
A tariff rate low enough people will still pay it just gradually nudges business away from that sourcing.
Not very emergency-ish.
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
7/ Tariffs do neither of these things.
A tariff rate of 10,000% is effectively a ban, but someone could still theoretically pay it.
A tariff rate low enough people will still pay it just gradually nudges business away from that sourcing.
Not very emergency-ish.
A tariff rate of 10,000% is effectively a ban, but someone could still theoretically pay it.
A tariff rate low enough people will still pay it just gradually nudges business away from that sourcing.
Not very emergency-ish.
6/ A LICENSING system puts the government in charge of which actors in the US and in the foreign country can conduct business.
It stops short of a total ban and might allow say, medicines to keep flowing, or limit sales to trusted non-state affiliated buyers.
Again, you can see an emergency use.
It stops short of a total ban and might allow say, medicines to keep flowing, or limit sales to trusted non-state affiliated buyers.
Again, you can see an emergency use.
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
6/ A LICENSING system puts the government in charge of which actors in the US and in the foreign country can conduct business.
It stops short of a total ban and might allow say, medicines to keep flowing, or limit sales to trusted non-state affiliated buyers.
Again, you can see an emergency use.
It stops short of a total ban and might allow say, medicines to keep flowing, or limit sales to trusted non-state affiliated buyers.
Again, you can see an emergency use.
5/ A trading BAN with a country prevents Americans doing business with them.
It might prevent Americans from funding an enemy government, or prevent American goods flowing it into enemy hands.
It's easy to imagine an emergency that would important in.
It might prevent Americans from funding an enemy government, or prevent American goods flowing it into enemy hands.
It's easy to imagine an emergency that would important in.
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
5/ A trading BAN with a country prevents Americans doing business with them.
It might prevent Americans from funding an enemy government, or prevent American goods flowing it into enemy hands.
It's easy to imagine an emergency that would important in.
It might prevent Americans from funding an enemy government, or prevent American goods flowing it into enemy hands.
It's easy to imagine an emergency that would important in.
4/ Those aren't exactly small issues, but we can park them for the moment and focus exclusively on the three policy tools the President mentions:
- Bans
- Licenses
- Tariffs
And talk about why one (tariffs) is not like the others when it comes to emergencies.
- Bans
- Licenses
- Tariffs
And talk about why one (tariffs) is not like the others when it comes to emergencies.
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
4/ Those aren't exactly small issues, but we can park them for the moment and focus exclusively on the three policy tools the President mentions:
- Bans
- Licenses
- Tariffs
And talk about why one (tariffs) is not like the others when it comes to emergencies.
- Bans
- Licenses
- Tariffs
And talk about why one (tariffs) is not like the others when it comes to emergencies.
3/ Let's also set aside whether the power to decide tax rates on Americans through tariffs is a power the Congress can even theoretically delegate to the Executive - which is what the Justices are partially focused on in this IEEPA case.
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
3/ Let's also set aside whether the power to decide tax rates on Americans through tariffs is a power the Congress can even theoretically delegate to the Executive - which is what the Justices are partially focused on in this IEEPA case.
2/ To talk about this, let's set aside for a second whether fentanyl, the border, the US trade deficit, the US budget deficit, India buying Russian oil, Brazil arresting one of Trump's friends for crimes or Ontario running an ad he doesn't like constitute economic emergencies under IEPPA.
November 9, 2025 at 4:52 PM
2/ To talk about this, let's set aside for a second whether fentanyl, the border, the US trade deficit, the US budget deficit, India buying Russian oil, Brazil arresting one of Trump's friends for crimes or Ontario running an ad he doesn't like constitute economic emergencies under IEPPA.
I guess a word of caution is that it's not like this is a picnic to enforce or implement even with shipping vessels/factory vessels which are gigantic, multi-million dollar pieces of equipment.
I've heard shipping has some OBSCURE ownership structures.
I've heard shipping has some OBSCURE ownership structures.
November 9, 2025 at 2:16 PM
I guess a word of caution is that it's not like this is a picnic to enforce or implement even with shipping vessels/factory vessels which are gigantic, multi-million dollar pieces of equipment.
I've heard shipping has some OBSCURE ownership structures.
I've heard shipping has some OBSCURE ownership structures.
Should I be this invested in 5 Korean men playing a video game?
That's a good question I choose to ignore.
That's a good question I choose to ignore.
November 9, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Should I be this invested in 5 Korean men playing a video game?
That's a good question I choose to ignore.
That's a good question I choose to ignore.