"For you, intelligence is not one thing among many. Every day it devours everything. It would like to put an end to a new state of society every morning." 1/n

Postdoc position open in Zurich -- Prof. Martin Tomasik and I have a joint SNF project on interpretable neural network approaches for large scale, complex item / temporal structure, online learning / cognitive development data.

Please retweet.

tinyurl.com/PostdocGNNSNF

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen something so simultaneously absurd and disturbing: the House will vote
Monday on a bill that would punish Americans for participating in boycotts of Israel with fines of up to $1 MILLION or prison terms up to TWENTY YEARS.

Excited to share that I’ve started a new role as Principal Data Scientist with @pymc-labs.bsky.social. I’m working with and learning from an amazing group of people to do applied Bayesian modeling and advance open-source @pymc.io libraries.

OK, here is a very rough draft of a tutorial for #Bayesian #SEM using #brms for #rstats. It needs work, polish, has a lot of questions in it, and I need to add a references section. But, I think a lot of folk will find this useful, so.... jebyrnes.github.io/bayesian_sem... (use issues for comments!)

Ah, I found what I was looking for! From Imai et al.'s "Unpacking the Black Box of Causality" (2011). This is coming from the angle of two experiments in which you identify A -> B and B -> C and why you cannot infer the average causal mediation effect from that.

🚨 JOB ALERT!! We're looking for a PhD student to join our group! Are you interested in evolutionary medicine / anthropology? Already have a master's? Apply with your own project ideas! See link: jobs.uzh.ch/job-vacancie... #EvMed @bioanth.org @ehbea.bsky.social Please RT!

Our JSS article is out!

And now I get to focus on {marginaleffects} 1.0.0. Stay tuned.

www.jstatsoft.org/article/view...

Prior specification is one of the hardest tasks in Bayesian modeling.

In our new paper, we (Florence Bockting, @stefanradev.bsky.social and me) develop a method for expert prior elicitation using generative neural networks and simulation-based learning.

arxiv.org/abs/2411.15826

Our updated EcoEvoRxiv preprint "Estimating (non)linear selection on reaction norms: A general framework for labile traits" is now live. Work done in collaboration with Yimen Araya-Ajoy, Niels Dingemanse, @ali--wilson.bsky.social, and David Westneat. ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v...

Conversely, the tools of “exploratory” data analysis lend more credibility and clarity to scientific claims than statistical testing ever could.

𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚢𝚝𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎 0.6.1 for #Rstats is out!

It's an ultra simple, super flexible, and 0-dependency package to draw beautiful tables in HTML, LaTeX, Typst, Word, PDF, and PNG.

And for those who ❤️ documentation, 𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚢𝚝𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎 ships with a billion pages of tutorials:

vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/

New blog post (and uh, new blog!)

If you use observation-level random effects (e.g., for over-dispersed counts), your predictive checks are probably wrong. Here's how to do it the right way in both #brms and #PyMC.

tl;dr: you need to sample new levels of the OLRE to avoid a false goodness-of-fit

This primer on between/within effects (using Mundlak device) is the paper I pull-up more often than any other during stats consultations. Better approaches exist (latent mean centering) but the explanations and figures here are top notch.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Teaching statistics to grad students this semester. Reading Freedman's anti-regression piece "Statistical Models and Shoe Leather" (paper brought to my attention by @edhagen.net) next week to calibrate expectations. Tag urself on his ordinal scale of pessimism.