Erik Ringen
@err-ring.bsky.social
Principal Data Scientist @ PyMC Labs
PhD in Bio-Anth. Behavioral ecology, phylogenetics, statistics & causal inference.
https://erikringen.github.io/
PhD in Bio-Anth. Behavioral ecology, phylogenetics, statistics & causal inference.
https://erikringen.github.io/
But it raises so many questions. Most importantly: who are the"gold standard" agers in the training data that you are comparing to?
November 17, 2025 at 7:23 PM
But it raises so many questions. Most importantly: who are the"gold standard" agers in the training data that you are comparing to?
I think the main practical reason to do it is to re-use trained models in new samples. But somewhere along the line this practically gets morphed into "the errors are biologically meaningful" rather than just "some model trained in a different sample predicted this new person's age badly"
November 17, 2025 at 7:20 PM
I think the main practical reason to do it is to re-use trained models in new samples. But somewhere along the line this practically gets morphed into "the errors are biologically meaningful" rather than just "some model trained in a different sample predicted this new person's age badly"
I know a little bit about these types of analyses (not this study specifically)--they are beyond causal salad. They interpret residual errors of a machine learning algorithm (actual age - predicted) as a 'aging acceleration/deceleration'. Literal noise-mining.
November 17, 2025 at 11:16 AM
I know a little bit about these types of analyses (not this study specifically)--they are beyond causal salad. They interpret residual errors of a machine learning algorithm (actual age - predicted) as a 'aging acceleration/deceleration'. Literal noise-mining.
Correlated observation-level random effects
October 21, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Correlated observation-level random effects
correlated observation-level random effects
October 21, 2025 at 12:30 PM
correlated observation-level random effects
Yes, and the culture evolves. Gelman claims that model checking was not part Bayesian culture in the 90s: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2010/03/18/c...
Confusion about Bayesian model checking | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
October 8, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Yes, and the culture evolves. Gelman claims that model checking was not part Bayesian culture in the 90s: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2010/03/18/c...
"Your acts of pity and cruelty are absurd, committed with no calm, as if they were Irresistible. Finally, you fear blood more and more. Blood and time.”
www.nytimes.com/1971/03/25/a...
www.nytimes.com/1971/03/25/a...
The Wisdom of the Orient (Published 1971)
www.nytimes.com
October 7, 2025 at 8:50 AM
"Your acts of pity and cruelty are absurd, committed with no calm, as if they were Irresistible. Finally, you fear blood more and more. Blood and time.”
www.nytimes.com/1971/03/25/a...
www.nytimes.com/1971/03/25/a...
"This is the law by which the intelligence despises law, and you encourage its violence! You are in love with Intelligence, until it frightens you. For your ideas are terrifying and your hearts are faint." 3/n
October 7, 2025 at 8:50 AM
"This is the law by which the intelligence despises law, and you encourage its violence! You are in love with Intelligence, until it frightens you. For your ideas are terrifying and your hearts are faint." 3/n
"A man intoxicated on it believes his own thoughts are legal decisions or facts themselves born of the crowd and time. He confuses his quick changes of heart with the imperceptible variation of real forms and enduring beings" 2/n
October 7, 2025 at 8:49 AM
"A man intoxicated on it believes his own thoughts are legal decisions or facts themselves born of the crowd and time. He confuses his quick changes of heart with the imperceptible variation of real forms and enduring beings" 2/n
For the XL voice messagers in her life, my wife listens on 2x speed...
June 9, 2025 at 7:47 PM
For the XL voice messagers in her life, my wife listens on 2x speed...
If you calculate marginal effects at the level of the ordinal response, then it shouldn't matter whether the effect is captured by the thresholds as opposed to a predictor tho, right?
April 28, 2025 at 1:18 PM
If you calculate marginal effects at the level of the ordinal response, then it shouldn't matter whether the effect is captured by the thresholds as opposed to a predictor tho, right?
Maybe this is the easiest way to understand it: you are never just adding more data with these analyses. More data implies a more complex model because it adds to the tree structure/history you are modelling. So you can end up with less precision when adding more data.
January 2, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Maybe this is the easiest way to understand it: you are never just adding more data with these analyses. More data implies a more complex model because it adds to the tree structure/history you are modelling. So you can end up with less precision when adding more data.
Very unsure if this is a similar phenomenon, but I have seen something like this happen when simulating from phylogenetic models, where power can depend on how "tippy vs branchy" the tree. But nobody has an estimand in PCMs so power per se isn't necessarily the right way to think about it
January 2, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Very unsure if this is a similar phenomenon, but I have seen something like this happen when simulating from phylogenetic models, where power can depend on how "tippy vs branchy" the tree. But nobody has an estimand in PCMs so power per se isn't necessarily the right way to think about it
Reposted by Erik Ringen
Ah, I found what I was looking for! From Imai et al.'s "Unpacking the Black Box of Causality" (2011). This is coming from the angle of two experiments in which you identify A -> B and B -> C and why you cannot infer the average causal mediation effect from that.
December 6, 2024 at 3:24 PM
Ah, I found what I was looking for! From Imai et al.'s "Unpacking the Black Box of Causality" (2011). This is coming from the angle of two experiments in which you identify A -> B and B -> C and why you cannot infer the average causal mediation effect from that.
my recommenders are bi-modal since becoming a parent
December 6, 2024 at 2:49 PM
my recommenders are bi-modal since becoming a parent
@solomonkurz.bsky.social's post is a much better introduction to OLREs, mine had a narrower aim of reminding ppl that trusting the default behavior of any stats software will burn you, even when the defaults are good.
December 3, 2024 at 6:06 PM
@solomonkurz.bsky.social's post is a much better introduction to OLREs, mine had a narrower aim of reminding ppl that trusting the default behavior of any stats software will burn you, even when the defaults are good.
In @drjessieadriaense.bsky.social 's paper we use a mixture model. You could call it a partially-Hidden Marko Model, bc some states known exactly others inferred. www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
Technical supplement not online it looks like, but code here: github.com/ErikRingen/m...
Technical supplement not online it looks like, but code here: github.com/ErikRingen/m...
Common marmosets use body posture as multi-functional signal to solicit, maintain, and modify social play
Social play is a highly active social interaction, characterized by rapid exchanges of various behaviors with multiple partners. Many primates use bodily expressions during social play, yet the potent...
www.biorxiv.org
December 3, 2024 at 12:23 PM
In @drjessieadriaense.bsky.social 's paper we use a mixture model. You could call it a partially-Hidden Marko Model, bc some states known exactly others inferred. www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
Technical supplement not online it looks like, but code here: github.com/ErikRingen/m...
Technical supplement not online it looks like, but code here: github.com/ErikRingen/m...
Not yet. My context is seeking principled way to deal with the spaces between behavior. Often ambiguous whether the dead time between behaviors is a distinct "rest" state or instead just a short pause. Matters a lot for Markov models if A -> B or A -> Rest -> B.
December 3, 2024 at 12:19 PM
Not yet. My context is seeking principled way to deal with the spaces between behavior. Often ambiguous whether the dead time between behaviors is a distinct "rest" state or instead just a short pause. Matters a lot for Markov models if A -> B or A -> Rest -> B.
And was humbled again recently implementing latent multi-state (competing hazards) models in Stan
December 3, 2024 at 11:14 AM
And was humbled again recently implementing latent multi-state (competing hazards) models in Stan