Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
@empctmacrotx.bsky.social
Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas (EMPCT): empirical macroeconomic research for academia, policy, the media and the public
https://sites.utexas.edu/macro/
https://sites.utexas.edu/macro/
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
A professional announcement: Oli Coibion,
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
October 21, 2025 at 7:05 PM
A professional announcement: Oli Coibion,
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
October 22, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
US consumer inflation heats up; weekly jobless claims near four-year high
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
September 11, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
August 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
New working paper:
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
August 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
New working paper:
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
New (updated) working paper:
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
August 15, 2025 at 2:51 PM
New (updated) working paper:
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
June 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
June 2, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33858
June 2, 2025 at 5:55 AM
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
May 23, 2025 at 5:57 AM
Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting?
Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
May 23, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting?
Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
A survey of French firm's inflation expectations that predate inflation spikes provides evidence on the anchoring of expectations during an inflation surge and the relevance of expectations for firms' decisions, from Gautier, Savignac, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w33799
May 22, 2025 at 4:27 AM
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
A survey of French firm's inflation expectations that predate inflation spikes provides evidence on the anchoring of expectations during an inflation surge and the relevance of expectations for firms' decisions, from Gautier, Savignac, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w33799
May 22, 2025 at 4:27 AM
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
Alarming
If UMich survey is to believed, inflation credibility has collapsed #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
May 17, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Alarming
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
A cautionary take on the rise in inflation expectations in the UMich survey from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social & Olie Coibion at @empctmacrotx.bsky.social...
The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations"
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations"
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
May 5, 2025 at 6:07 PM
A cautionary take on the rise in inflation expectations in the UMich survey from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social & Olie Coibion at @empctmacrotx.bsky.social...
The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations"
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations"
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure).
Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅
Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅
April 30, 2025 at 3:05 PM
The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure).
Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅
Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅
What's happening with inflation expectations?
Two often used household surveys disagree:
- the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up
- the NY Fed SCE says they're not...
Which one is it?
New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right!
Find out why ⬇️
Two often used household surveys disagree:
- the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up
- the NY Fed SCE says they're not...
Which one is it?
New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right!
Find out why ⬇️
April 29, 2025 at 9:25 PM
What's happening with inflation expectations?
Two often used household surveys disagree:
- the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up
- the NY Fed SCE says they're not...
Which one is it?
New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right!
Find out why ⬇️
Two often used household surveys disagree:
- the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up
- the NY Fed SCE says they're not...
Which one is it?
New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right!
Find out why ⬇️
After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
April 25, 2025 at 1:06 PM
After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
April 23, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
April 23, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)
including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
The Economics of Trade Bloc Formation: Who Wins from Decoupling?
How have recent developments like the US-China trade war, Brexit, or the breakdown of economic ties between the West & Russia affected trade?
New blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social & co-authors looks into these questions ⬇️
How have recent developments like the US-China trade war, Brexit, or the breakdown of economic ties between the West & Russia affected trade?
New blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social & co-authors looks into these questions ⬇️
April 22, 2025 at 7:53 PM
The Economics of Trade Bloc Formation: Who Wins from Decoupling?
How have recent developments like the US-China trade war, Brexit, or the breakdown of economic ties between the West & Russia affected trade?
New blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social & co-authors looks into these questions ⬇️
How have recent developments like the US-China trade war, Brexit, or the breakdown of economic ties between the West & Russia affected trade?
New blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social & co-authors looks into these questions ⬇️
Congratulations Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social 🥳
The recently accepted paper of Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social demonstrates that shocks that drive the US business cycle also drive the global financial cycle.
www.restud.com/the-us-econo...
www.restud.com/the-us-econo...
April 3, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Congratulations Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social 🥳
New working paper by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social and coauthors
We have a new working paper:
𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲
with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social
Short thread below ⬇️
@empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social
𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲
with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social
Short thread below ⬇️
@empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social
March 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
New working paper by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social and coauthors
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
Excited to spend AY-25-26 in Munich! Looking forward to lots of European travels :-) @lmumuenchen.bsky.social, thanks for hosting us
March 26, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Excited to spend AY-25-26 in Munich! Looking forward to lots of European travels :-) @lmumuenchen.bsky.social, thanks for hosting us