Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
@empctmacrotx.bsky.social
Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas (EMPCT): empirical macroeconomic research for academia, policy, the media and the public
https://sites.utexas.edu/macro/
https://sites.utexas.edu/macro/
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
A professional announcement: Oli Coibion,
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
October 21, 2025 at 7:05 PM
A professional announcement: Oli Coibion,
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
October 22, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
US consumer inflation heats up; weekly jobless claims near four-year high
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
September 11, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️
More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD
#EconSky
Read the full blog post here: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
August 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Read the full blog post here: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
The authors emphasize that although America is further away from the battlegrounds, history shows that American consumers do react to wars overseas, calling for stabilization by policymakers and central banks, especially by anchoring expectations.
August 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
The authors emphasize that although America is further away from the battlegrounds, history shows that American consumers do react to wars overseas, calling for stabilization by policymakers and central banks, especially by anchoring expectations.
Importantly, these views also concern people's personal situation and not just their general economic outlook.
August 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Importantly, these views also concern people's personal situation and not just their general economic outlook.
Though apparently far away, wars still transcend into the expectations of households and consumers, progressively worsening their outlook as wars drag on as shows European survey data.
August 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Though apparently far away, wars still transcend into the expectations of households and consumers, progressively worsening their outlook as wars drag on as shows European survey data.
How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
August 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
New working paper:
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
August 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
New working paper:
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition
by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
New (updated) working paper:
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
August 15, 2025 at 2:51 PM
New (updated) working paper:
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
.
Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
More details in the blog post: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
and even more details in the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
and even more details in the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions
sites.utexas.edu
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
More details in the blog post: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
and even more details in the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
and even more details in the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/advan...
While US macroeconomic announcements have large effects on foreign stock markets, the reverse is not true. Foreign economic news releases have little to no effects on US markets.
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
While US macroeconomic announcements have large effects on foreign stock markets, the reverse is not true. Foreign economic news releases have little to no effects on US markets.
US monetary policy has a stabilizing role after US macroeconomic news releases.
When bad news about the US economy becomes available, markets expect Fed to lower interest rates, which partially offsets the decline in stock markets and thus stabilizes asset markets and economy.
When bad news about the US economy becomes available, markets expect Fed to lower interest rates, which partially offsets the decline in stock markets and thus stabilizes asset markets and economy.
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
US monetary policy has a stabilizing role after US macroeconomic news releases.
When bad news about the US economy becomes available, markets expect Fed to lower interest rates, which partially offsets the decline in stock markets and thus stabilizes asset markets and economy.
When bad news about the US economy becomes available, markets expect Fed to lower interest rates, which partially offsets the decline in stock markets and thus stabilizes asset markets and economy.
These findings suggest that investors are more confident in holding riskier assets when the US economy is doing well.
Flip side: bad news about the US economy can lead to a global stock market panic
Flip side: bad news about the US economy can lead to a global stock market panic
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
These findings suggest that investors are more confident in holding riskier assets when the US economy is doing well.
Flip side: bad news about the US economy can lead to a global stock market panic
Flip side: bad news about the US economy can lead to a global stock market panic
Why is it that global stock prices respond so much to surprises about US macroeconomic data releases?
➡️ global stock prices rise after US macroeconomic news releases
➡️investors’ perceived risk and uncertainty falls
➡️ prices of relatively safe assets also fall
➡️ global stock prices rise after US macroeconomic news releases
➡️investors’ perceived risk and uncertainty falls
➡️ prices of relatively safe assets also fall
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Why is it that global stock prices respond so much to surprises about US macroeconomic data releases?
➡️ global stock prices rise after US macroeconomic news releases
➡️investors’ perceived risk and uncertainty falls
➡️ prices of relatively safe assets also fall
➡️ global stock prices rise after US macroeconomic news releases
➡️investors’ perceived risk and uncertainty falls
➡️ prices of relatively safe assets also fall
How does news about the US economy affect the rest of the world?
➡️ after US macroeconomic news releases, global stock prices respond immediately and in a synchronized way.
➡️ effects are large: Foreign countries’ stock prices respond with magnitudes similar to US stock market.
➡️ after US macroeconomic news releases, global stock prices respond immediately and in a synchronized way.
➡️ effects are large: Foreign countries’ stock prices respond with magnitudes similar to US stock market.
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
How does news about the US economy affect the rest of the world?
➡️ after US macroeconomic news releases, global stock prices respond immediately and in a synchronized way.
➡️ effects are large: Foreign countries’ stock prices respond with magnitudes similar to US stock market.
➡️ after US macroeconomic news releases, global stock prices respond immediately and in a synchronized way.
➡️ effects are large: Foreign countries’ stock prices respond with magnitudes similar to US stock market.
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.
Short summary below ⬇️
Much more details, including a discussion of the policy implications can be found in the blog post:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
Or in the full working paper: utexas.app.box.com/s/ht0ddytxfx...
Thank you for reading!
@utaustinecon.bsky.social
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
Or in the full working paper: utexas.app.box.com/s/ht0ddytxfx...
Thank you for reading!
@utaustinecon.bsky.social
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-MakingBlueskyEmailTwitter
sites.utexas.edu
June 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Much more details, including a discussion of the policy implications can be found in the blog post:
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
Or in the full working paper: utexas.app.box.com/s/ht0ddytxfx...
Thank you for reading!
@utaustinecon.bsky.social
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
Or in the full working paper: utexas.app.box.com/s/ht0ddytxfx...
Thank you for reading!
@utaustinecon.bsky.social
This is consistent with models where wage contracts are short-lived and expectations beyond the contract horizon are irrelevant (as @ivanwerning.bsky.social 's work highlights)
June 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
This is consistent with models where wage contracts are short-lived and expectations beyond the contract horizon are irrelevant (as @ivanwerning.bsky.social 's work highlights)
Only short-term expectations (and inflation perceptions) are meaningfully correlated w/ expected wage growth. Long-run inflation expectations have essentially no predictive power.
June 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Only short-term expectations (and inflation perceptions) are meaningfully correlated w/ expected wage growth. Long-run inflation expectations have essentially no predictive power.
As inflation began rising in 2022, firms initially underreacted: short-term expectations rose more slowly than actual inflation. This gave way to persistent overshooting—firms expected more inflation than actually materialized, especially in the disinflation phase in 2023–2024.
June 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
As inflation began rising in 2022, firms initially underreacted: short-term expectations rose more slowly than actual inflation. This gave way to persistent overshooting—firms expected more inflation than actually materialized, especially in the disinflation phase in 2023–2024.
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
June 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.
Short summary follows ⬇️
June 2, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33858
June 2, 2025 at 5:55 AM
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas
May 23, 2025 at 5:57 AM