Oliver Pfäuti
pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
Oliver Pfäuti
@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social
Economist, UT Austin, working on macro/monetary

www.oliverpfaeuti.com
Direct link to the updated version of my paper: opfaeuti.github.io/website/IAT....
August 15, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions

New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.

Short summary below ⬇️
July 15, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making

New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac.

Short summary follows ⬇️
June 4, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Now also out as a EMPCT working paper!

Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
June 2, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?

New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
nber.org NBER @nber.org · Jun 1
Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33858
June 2, 2025 at 5:55 AM
It took a while, but we finally have a new (heavily revised) version out:

nber.org/papers/w32305
May 23, 2025 at 5:57 AM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting?

Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
May 23, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
nber.org NBER @nber.org · May 20
A survey of French firm's inflation expectations that predate inflation spikes provides evidence on the anchoring of expectations during an inflation surge and the relevance of expectations for firms' decisions, from Gautier, Savignac, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w33799
May 22, 2025 at 4:27 AM
The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure).

Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅
April 30, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
What's happening with inflation expectations?

Two often used household surveys disagree:

- the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up
- the NY Fed SCE says they're not...

Which one is it?

New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right!

Find out why ⬇️
April 29, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄

We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)

including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
April 25, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄

We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below)

including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social
(+ some not on here)
April 23, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Highly recommended!

"Attention to the Macroeconomy" by Link, Peichl, Pfäuti, Roth, and Wohlfart

"...attention to the macroeconomy responds strongly to shocks; more attentive respondents adjust their inflation expectations more frequently during the shock"

opfaeuti.github.io/website/Atte...
March 28, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
New working paper by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social and coauthors
We have a new working paper:

𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲

with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social

Short thread below ⬇️

@empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social
March 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
We have a new working paper:

𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲

with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social

Short thread below ⬇️

@empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social
March 28, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes?

New blog post:

𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲

by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao

Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
March 12, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
New blog post on summarizing the key findings from the paper

"𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧fl𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? 𝐀 𝐕𝐨𝐱 𝐏𝐨𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐢 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡"

by Coibion and coauthors:
tinyurl.com/blogcoibion
February 23, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
New working paper by our co-director Oli Coibion and co-authors ⬇️

They find that households would sacrifice around 5% of lifetime consumption to eliminate business cycles or inflation. However, these numbers differ across households: exposure, uncertainty, etc., matter!
How much would people pay to avoid business cycles? Professor Olivier Coibion and his collaborators answer this question in a new @nber.org working paper.
nber.org NBER @nber.org · Feb 20
Studying how much individuals would be willing to pay to eliminate business cycles, from Dimitris Georgarakos, Kwang Hwan Kim, Olivier Coibion, Myungkyu Shim, Myunghwan Andrew Lee, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny, Seowoo Han, and Michael Weber https://www.nber.org/papers/w33476
February 20, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
A quantitative HANK model estimated with linear methods where aggregate uncertainty interacts with the illiquidity friction to drive business cycles and asset returns, from Cosmin L. Ilut, Ralph Luetticke, and Martin Schneider https://www.nber.org/papers/w33331
February 3, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Oli Cobion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber wrote a new blog post on what Americans expect from the Trump tariffs:

sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

Key results: they expect to bear a share of tariffs, firm managers expect to raise prices. Disagreement b/n Dems & Reps, and many more in blog
January 29, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Congratulations @nityanayar.bsky.social , Andrei Levchenko and Zhen Huo on your publication of "International Comovement in the Global Production Network" in @reveconstudies.bsky.social 🥳

Link to the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
January 28, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
Congratulations to Chris Boehm and former UT Austin grad @kronerniklas.bsky.social on getting their paper "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle" accepted at Review of Economic Studies @reveconstudies.bsky.social !🥳 @utaustinecon.bsky.social

Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wak4l...
www.dropbox.com
January 27, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
🚨 New data alert! Curious about how people really understand inflation—its causes, impacts & what governments should do about it? 📊 You can dive into the data from our project "People's understanding of inflation" here: socialeconomicslab.org/research/pub... Excited to see new analyses!
People’s Understanding of Inflation - Social Economics Lab
This paper studies people’s understanding of inflation — their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs — and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new, detailed online survey ...
socialeconomicslab.org
January 27, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
There is *a lot* of useful information in the disagreement that we see in the expectations data. Which of it is useful depends on the question you are asking.
Recent references for those interested:
-- bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/u...
-- personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...
January 25, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Reposted by Oliver Pfäuti
🌎Does unilateral decarbonization pay for itself? In our new working paper, @adrienbilal.bsky.social and I analyze whether large economies like the U.S. and E.U. can justify broad decarbonization policies based purely on domestic economic benefits.

WP: nber.org/papers/w3336...

#econsky
January 21, 2025 at 5:15 PM