It took a while, but we finally have a new (heavily revised) version out:

nber.org/papers/w32305

The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure).

Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅

Consistent with this theory, we show
- agents with inflation experiences pay more attention to inflation as inflation increases
- and they increase their expectations more strongly, deviating more from expert benchmarks

We find evidence for theories of goal-optimal attention (e.g. rational inatt):
- attention is related to exposure & info costs
- attention is state dependent
- attentive agents update expectations more frequently
- are more confident in their beliefs
- have more accurate nowcasts

We have a new working paper:

𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲

with Sebastian Link, @apeichl.bsky.social, Chris Roth and @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social

Short thread below ⬇️

@empctmacrotx.bsky.social @utaustinecon.bsky.social