Georgi Engelbrecht
@duriandiaries.bsky.social
Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup. Posts on Philippines, Peace Processes+Deterrence and Durians.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters | International Crisis Group
www.crisisgroup.org
November 13, 2025 at 8:55 AM
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News
This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...
news.usni.org
October 31, 2025 at 10:46 PM
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
October 15, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
October 9, 2025 at 11:10 AM
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
www.reuters.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:05 AM
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
Spotify – Web Player
open.spotify.com
October 13, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
www.youtube.com
August 27, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
Monday 25 August, 9pm Washington, DCTuesday 26 August, 8am Bangkok | 9am Manila | 11am CanberraPlease register here if you would like to attend this online event.
www.crisisgroup.org
August 21, 2025 at 8:13 AM
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
August 14, 2025 at 2:00 PM
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
August 16, 2025 at 2:31 AM
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 14, 2025 at 11:44 AM
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
August 14, 2025 at 11:35 AM
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
August 14, 2025 at 11:35 AM
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
August 12, 2025 at 8:03 AM
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans
'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans
The Philippine government's acquisition of twelve more FA-50 light combat aircraft will not diminish the chances of acquiring other multi-role fighters (MRF) as these are different platforms that would enhance the Philippine Air Force's (PAF) fleet.
abs-cbn.com
June 17, 2025 at 7:54 AM
'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
As we mark our 30th anniversary, new challenges lie ahead and our work remains essential at a moment of danger for the world.
As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.
As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.
June 12, 2025 at 3:53 PM
As we mark our 30th anniversary, new challenges lie ahead and our work remains essential at a moment of danger for the world.
As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.
As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
NEW REPORT | The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium
As China projects its advancing military capabilities and the U.S. sends mixed messages about security assurance, Washington and Beijing should resume talks to manage any risks of escalation.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
As China projects its advancing military capabilities and the U.S. sends mixed messages about security assurance, Washington and Beijing should resume talks to manage any risks of escalation.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
May 15, 2025 at 9:18 AM
NEW REPORT | The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium
As China projects its advancing military capabilities and the U.S. sends mixed messages about security assurance, Washington and Beijing should resume talks to manage any risks of escalation.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
As China projects its advancing military capabilities and the U.S. sends mixed messages about security assurance, Washington and Beijing should resume talks to manage any risks of escalation.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
"With so much of Philippine power concentrated in the capital with varying degrees of devolution to local vassals, Malacañang’s hand is never truly hidden."
In case of interest: notes on Duterte Magic, Sub-Saharan Mindanao, and various political ghosts, wildcards and trickster spirits in a post-3/11 Philippines. Up at @aiianational.bsky.social
www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianou...
www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianou...
Exorcising Rodrigo Duterte and the Ghosts of Mindanao Secession: Notes from a Post-3/11 Philippines - Australian Institute of International Affairs
www.internationalaffairs.org.au
June 1, 2025 at 1:34 AM
"With so much of Philippine power concentrated in the capital with varying degrees of devolution to local vassals, Malacañang’s hand is never truly hidden."
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
As 🇺🇸 Def Sec warns 🇨🇳 attack on Taiwan “could be imminent”, @CrisisGroup takes a look at Taiwanese Pres Lai Ching-te 1st yr.
➡️Cross-strait relations are esp fraught.
➡️Taipei & Beijing are increasingly at odds.
⬇️ Here’s what can be done to lower temperature.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
➡️Cross-strait relations are esp fraught.
➡️Taipei & Beijing are increasingly at odds.
⬇️ Here’s what can be done to lower temperature.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
President Lai’s First Year Sees Increased Tensions across the Taiwan Strait | International Crisis Group
As Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te completes his first year in office, cross-strait relations have become especially fraught. Crisis Group expert William Yang explains why Taipei and Beijing are incr...
www.crisisgroup.org
May 31, 2025 at 7:13 AM
As 🇺🇸 Def Sec warns 🇨🇳 attack on Taiwan “could be imminent”, @CrisisGroup takes a look at Taiwanese Pres Lai Ching-te 1st yr.
➡️Cross-strait relations are esp fraught.
➡️Taipei & Beijing are increasingly at odds.
⬇️ Here’s what can be done to lower temperature.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
➡️Cross-strait relations are esp fraught.
➡️Taipei & Beijing are increasingly at odds.
⬇️ Here’s what can be done to lower temperature.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Anwar asked about Chinese coercion of Philippines in SCS. Says ASEAN “working towards” code of conduct (🤔) but right now “no real clarity”. Says PRC-Phil tensions “exaggerated” & “no way out except engagement”.
May 31, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Anwar asked about Chinese coercion of Philippines in SCS. Says ASEAN “working towards” code of conduct (🤔) but right now “no real clarity”. Says PRC-Phil tensions “exaggerated” & “no way out except engagement”.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
US & PH militaries will train in maritime security, live-fire & amphibious operations. The GSDF (incl Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade) & ROK marines will take part in disaster relief training. 1st time ARDB participates with ROK peer in multinat training exercise
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
US-Philippine military exercise joined by Japan, South Korea forces
Asian partners seek deeper cooperation to counter China-Russia-North Korea ties
asia.nikkei.com
May 26, 2025 at 10:16 PM
US & PH militaries will train in maritime security, live-fire & amphibious operations. The GSDF (incl Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade) & ROK marines will take part in disaster relief training. 1st time ARDB participates with ROK peer in multinat training exercise
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
MANILA, Philippines — Tension erupted in a clash on Monday between residents of Barangay 262 and 264 in Tondo, Manila and members of a demolition team backed by the police.
READ: tmt.news/2120940
READ: tmt.news/2120940
Tondo residents clash with police-backed demolition team
MANILA, Philippines — Tension erupted in a clash on Monday between residents of Barangay 262 and 264 in Tondo, Manila and members of a demolition team backed by the police.
tmt.news
May 26, 2025 at 12:41 PM
MANILA, Philippines — Tension erupted in a clash on Monday between residents of Barangay 262 and 264 in Tondo, Manila and members of a demolition team backed by the police.
READ: tmt.news/2120940
READ: tmt.news/2120940
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
"Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has called for a joint ASEAN action plan to address the growing tariff threat. Anwar said.. that, while bilateral talks between member states and the U.S. would continue, the bloc must present a united front." www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
U.S. tariff tensions test Southeast Asian leaders at regional summit
ASEAN leaders will express deep concern over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff blitz when they meet at a summit Monday, according to a draft statement.
www.japantimes.co.jp
May 25, 2025 at 8:01 PM
"Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has called for a joint ASEAN action plan to address the growing tariff threat. Anwar said.. that, while bilateral talks between member states and the U.S. would continue, the bloc must present a united front." www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...