Georgi Engelbrecht
@duriandiaries.bsky.social
Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup. Posts on Philippines, Peace Processes+Deterrence and Durians.
More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.
January 16, 2026 at 1:06 PM
More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
January 6, 2026 at 10:41 AM
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea...
"We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
"We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
A reality by March 2026? (2)
COTABATO CITY—Here in the heartland of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, several civil society friends and colleagues have asked questions on the confusing statements issued by the national
opinion.inquirer.net
January 6, 2026 at 5:43 AM
opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea...
"We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
"We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 5:22 PM
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.”
@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
‘Everything is silent’: Caracas on edge in aftermath of US blitz
Some suspected the attacks on Venezuela were coming, but the shock was still real and no one knows what will happen next
www.theguardian.com
January 3, 2026 at 6:51 PM
🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.”
@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩
By @fmalufti.bsky.social
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
By @fmalufti.bsky.social
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
Indonesia Launches First Domestically Built Arrowhead 140–Based Frigate - Naval News
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih (Red White)-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322).
www.navalnews.com
December 19, 2025 at 7:58 AM
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩
By @fmalufti.bsky.social
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
By @fmalufti.bsky.social
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
Great aspirations? Examining Russia’s role in Southeast Asia
A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence.
www.lowyinstitute.org
November 21, 2025 at 1:34 AM
“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR
October 16, 2025 at 5:16 AM
Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters | International Crisis Group
www.crisisgroup.org
November 13, 2025 at 8:55 AM
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News
This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...
news.usni.org
October 31, 2025 at 10:46 PM
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
October 15, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
October 9, 2025 at 11:10 AM
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
www.reuters.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:05 AM
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
Spotify – Web Player
open.spotify.com
October 13, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
www.youtube.com
August 27, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
Monday 25 August, 9pm Washington, DCTuesday 26 August, 8am Bangkok | 9am Manila | 11am CanberraPlease register here if you would like to attend this online event.
www.crisisgroup.org
August 21, 2025 at 8:13 AM
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
August 14, 2025 at 2:00 PM
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
August 16, 2025 at 2:31 AM
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group
As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 14, 2025 at 11:44 AM
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
August 14, 2025 at 11:35 AM
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
August 14, 2025 at 11:35 AM
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
August 12, 2025 at 8:03 AM
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...