David Milliken
@davidmilliken.bsky.social
Reuters economics reporter covering the Bank of England, HM Treasury, bond markets and UK data.
It’s also rare for civilisations / empires (especially player controlled ones) to collapse or splinter
October 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
It’s also rare for civilisations / empires (especially player controlled ones) to collapse or splinter
In theory yes. In practice some MPC jittery about impact of regularly above target CPI on public medium term expectations (which might be enough to stop a majority for a cut in Nov / Dec )
September 9, 2025 at 12:31 PM
In theory yes. In practice some MPC jittery about impact of regularly above target CPI on public medium term expectations (which might be enough to stop a majority for a cut in Nov / Dec )
May also be an attempt to acknowledge concerns that some other policies (how energy transition costs feed into bills, water regulation etc) have had a regular one-off impacts on CPI in short run. Unsure if it reduces likelihood of rise to fuel duty / change to VAT thresholds etc...
September 9, 2025 at 12:22 PM
May also be an attempt to acknowledge concerns that some other policies (how energy transition costs feed into bills, water regulation etc) have had a regular one-off impacts on CPI in short run. Unsure if it reduces likelihood of rise to fuel duty / change to VAT thresholds etc...
Sad news - and some interruption necessary to keep the discussion moving on! At least I have an 18 month back log to get through before reaching deeper into the archives.
September 4, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Sad news - and some interruption necessary to keep the discussion moving on! At least I have an 18 month back log to get through before reaching deeper into the archives.
"Sharp market moves this week underscored underlying fragilities as UK finance minister Rachel Reeves fired the starting gun for a weeks-long budgeting process that looks set to..." [eds - do we still want this?]
September 3, 2025 at 5:24 PM
"Sharp market moves this week underscored underlying fragilities as UK finance minister Rachel Reeves fired the starting gun for a weeks-long budgeting process that looks set to..." [eds - do we still want this?]
From memory, they said the date when hotel prices were collected was around the time of the Manchester concert, but prices were up more away from northwest England.
August 20, 2025 at 1:53 PM
From memory, they said the date when hotel prices were collected was around the time of the Manchester concert, but prices were up more away from northwest England.
Reporters asked during the ONS press briefing and the ONS said that while hotel prices were up in July, it didn’t line up particularly with where Oasis were playing.
August 20, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Reporters asked during the ONS press briefing and the ONS said that while hotel prices were up in July, it didn’t line up particularly with where Oasis were playing.
Point taken! (From memory I thought the difference between the two was a bit larger, but seems not.)
August 11, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Point taken! (From memory I thought the difference between the two was a bit larger, but seems not.)
I'm guessing Manchester / Leeds judged "too big"/successful already, Darlington part of Tees Valley authority (so ticks a regeneration box) and Newcastle that bit too far for people to easily travel to/from London in a day for a meeting?
August 11, 2025 at 9:53 AM
I'm guessing Manchester / Leeds judged "too big"/successful already, Darlington part of Tees Valley authority (so ticks a regeneration box) and Newcastle that bit too far for people to easily travel to/from London in a day for a meeting?
Do you think the current ONS location meets those criteria? On the map it seems an ok commute from Cardiff and doable from the outskirts of Bristol?
(I'm guessing from the fact you raised it, you're doubtful...)
(I'm guessing from the fact you raised it, you're doubtful...)
August 11, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Do you think the current ONS location meets those criteria? On the map it seems an ok commute from Cardiff and doable from the outskirts of Bristol?
(I'm guessing from the fact you raised it, you're doubtful...)
(I'm guessing from the fact you raised it, you're doubtful...)
I can imagine a short-run impact of people not wanting to move. But surprising/concerning if it's still the cause of problems 15-20 years later. (ONS Newport looks 30 minutes drive from Cardiff, so not middle of nowhere and arguably better quality of life than London on an ONS salary?)
August 11, 2025 at 9:14 AM
I can imagine a short-run impact of people not wanting to move. But surprising/concerning if it's still the cause of problems 15-20 years later. (ONS Newport looks 30 minutes drive from Cardiff, so not middle of nowhere and arguably better quality of life than London on an ONS salary?)
More data on slowing UK construction activity from @noblefrancis.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/nobl...
bsky.app/profile/nobl...
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in June 2025 were 1.0% lower than in May & 16.3% higher than a low base a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
August 6, 2025 at 9:03 AM
More data on slowing UK construction activity from @noblefrancis.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/nobl...
bsky.app/profile/nobl...
Reposted by David Milliken
Minimum wage remit for 2026 now published. As expected, it's mostly a rollover of last year's policy.
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
August 5, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Minimum wage remit for 2026 now published. As expected, it's mostly a rollover of last year's policy.
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
For a fuller discussion of this week's BoE policy decision, check out this from my colleague Bill Schomberg www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
Bank of England set to split again in face of inflation, job risks
The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates next week but the likelihood of a fresh three-way split among policymakers underscores the conflicting risks posed by rising inflation and a weakening job market to Britain's economy.
www.reuters.com
August 4, 2025 at 10:07 AM
For a fuller discussion of this week's BoE policy decision, check out this from my colleague Bill Schomberg www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
What does this mean for Thursday's decision? You can take the view that slow growth and higher unemployment will slow wage growth - and that gradual rate cuts are needed to stop CPI undershooting in 2-3 years' time.
Or, as a minority of BoE policymakers probably will, decide it's time for a pause.
Or, as a minority of BoE policymakers probably will, decide it's time for a pause.
August 4, 2025 at 10:06 AM
What does this mean for Thursday's decision? You can take the view that slow growth and higher unemployment will slow wage growth - and that gradual rate cuts are needed to stop CPI undershooting in 2-3 years' time.
Or, as a minority of BoE policymakers probably will, decide it's time for a pause.
Or, as a minority of BoE policymakers probably will, decide it's time for a pause.
And British businesses see their costs rising faster - and are increasing their prices faster than before the pandemic, according to monthly PMI data.
August 4, 2025 at 10:00 AM
And British businesses see their costs rising faster - and are increasing their prices faster than before the pandemic, according to monthly PMI data.
Meanwhile, surveys of what the public and businesses think inflation will be in around 5 years are on the up.
Sometimes these surveys can be a knee-jerk reaction to a recent rise in inflation, but they might also reflect less certainty that inflation will average near the BoE's 2% target.
Sometimes these surveys can be a knee-jerk reaction to a recent rise in inflation, but they might also reflect less certainty that inflation will average near the BoE's 2% target.
August 4, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Meanwhile, surveys of what the public and businesses think inflation will be in around 5 years are on the up.
Sometimes these surveys can be a knee-jerk reaction to a recent rise in inflation, but they might also reflect less certainty that inflation will average near the BoE's 2% target.
Sometimes these surveys can be a knee-jerk reaction to a recent rise in inflation, but they might also reflect less certainty that inflation will average near the BoE's 2% target.
Wage growth is a big driver of services prices and longer-term UK inflation trends.
Lots hangs on whether it continues to slow as the BoE expects - returning to pre-pandemic rates of around 3% - or bottoms out at a higher level.
Lots hangs on whether it continues to slow as the BoE expects - returning to pre-pandemic rates of around 3% - or bottoms out at a higher level.
August 4, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Wage growth is a big driver of services prices and longer-term UK inflation trends.
Lots hangs on whether it continues to slow as the BoE expects - returning to pre-pandemic rates of around 3% - or bottoms out at a higher level.
Lots hangs on whether it continues to slow as the BoE expects - returning to pre-pandemic rates of around 3% - or bottoms out at a higher level.
However, some policymakers worry that longer-term domestic drivers of inflation haven't receded as much as they'd like.
Services inflation at 4.7% is 2 percentage points higher than in 2019.
And food prices, which drive shorter-term inflation moves, are rebounding after a fall in 2025.
Services inflation at 4.7% is 2 percentage points higher than in 2019.
And food prices, which drive shorter-term inflation moves, are rebounding after a fall in 2025.
August 4, 2025 at 9:48 AM
However, some policymakers worry that longer-term domestic drivers of inflation haven't receded as much as they'd like.
Services inflation at 4.7% is 2 percentage points higher than in 2019.
And food prices, which drive shorter-term inflation moves, are rebounding after a fall in 2025.
Services inflation at 4.7% is 2 percentage points higher than in 2019.
And food prices, which drive shorter-term inflation moves, are rebounding after a fall in 2025.
The Bank of England mostly sees high inflation as temporary - reflecting one-off shocks from higher water bills, past wholesale energy price rises etc.
But (as of May) it didn't expect inflation to get back to its 2% target until early 2027, unlike the euro zone where it stays close to 2%
But (as of May) it didn't expect inflation to get back to its 2% target until early 2027, unlike the euro zone where it stays close to 2%
August 4, 2025 at 9:41 AM
The Bank of England mostly sees high inflation as temporary - reflecting one-off shocks from higher water bills, past wholesale energy price rises etc.
But (as of May) it didn't expect inflation to get back to its 2% target until early 2027, unlike the euro zone where it stays close to 2%
But (as of May) it didn't expect inflation to get back to its 2% target until early 2027, unlike the euro zone where it stays close to 2%
First, a bit of context. British inflation peaked higher than in the United States or the euro zone in 2022 at 11.1%. It fell sharply in 2023 and briefly returned to its 2% target in 2024.
But since hitting a low of 1.7% in September 2024, it has more than doubled, reaching 3.6% in June.
But since hitting a low of 1.7% in September 2024, it has more than doubled, reaching 3.6% in June.
August 4, 2025 at 9:35 AM
First, a bit of context. British inflation peaked higher than in the United States or the euro zone in 2022 at 11.1%. It fell sharply in 2023 and briefly returned to its 2% target in 2024.
But since hitting a low of 1.7% in September 2024, it has more than doubled, reaching 3.6% in June.
But since hitting a low of 1.7% in September 2024, it has more than doubled, reaching 3.6% in June.