David Milliken
@davidmilliken.bsky.social
Reuters economics reporter covering the Bank of England, HM Treasury, bond markets and UK data.
Reposted by David Milliken
UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
September 9, 2025 at 9:14 AM
UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
Lots of food for thought here on what might be improved at the ONS on processes, staff skills/pay etc.
(Though note it's for if you were starting from scratch - implementing parts of this transition e.g. on staff numbers doesn't look easy.)
(Though note it's for if you were starting from scratch - implementing parts of this transition e.g. on staff numbers doesn't look easy.)
Very much agree with @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social; problems are deeper and structural (my personal view!) Won't surprise anyone that I've been thinking about this a lot—put together a hopeful & forward looking vision for what one could do with a blank slate here: aeturrell.com/blog/posts/f...
Arthur Turrell
Arthur Turrell is an economic data scientist.
aeturrell.com
August 11, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Lots of food for thought here on what might be improved at the ONS on processes, staff skills/pay etc.
(Though note it's for if you were starting from scratch - implementing parts of this transition e.g. on staff numbers doesn't look easy.)
(Though note it's for if you were starting from scratch - implementing parts of this transition e.g. on staff numbers doesn't look easy.)
Stark results - though a bit unclear in the data what has triggered such a sharp downturn in orders (vague factors is site delays, fewer tender opportunities and clients unwilling to commit)
UK construction activity falls by most in five years, survey shows reut.rs/45l4NTd
UK construction activity falls by most in five years, survey shows
Activity in Britain's construction sector fell by the most in more than five years last month, according to a survey that raises questions about whether the government will achieve its target of building 1.5 million homes by mid-2029.
reut.rs
August 6, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Stark results - though a bit unclear in the data what has triggered such a sharp downturn in orders (vague factors is site delays, fewer tender opportunities and clients unwilling to commit)
Reposted by David Milliken
Minimum wage remit for 2026 now published. As expected, it's mostly a rollover of last year's policy.
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
August 5, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Minimum wage remit for 2026 now published. As expected, it's mostly a rollover of last year's policy.
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
I've a graphics-focused piece on UK inflation trends out this morning ahead of Thursday's Bank of England decision - when the central bank looks set to cut interest rates to 4% from 4.25% despite inflation approaching double its 2% target.
Brief summary to follow (or click now for the full story)
Brief summary to follow (or click now for the full story)
Bank of England faces inflation challenge as it prepares to cut rates reut.rs/45yG1QT
Bank of England faces inflation challenge as it prepares to cut rates
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut its key interest rate to 4% from 4.25% on Thursday and to lower it once more before the end of the year, despite consumer price inflation rising to close to double the central bank's 2% target in June.
reut.rs
August 4, 2025 at 9:29 AM
I've a graphics-focused piece on UK inflation trends out this morning ahead of Thursday's Bank of England decision - when the central bank looks set to cut interest rates to 4% from 4.25% despite inflation approaching double its 2% target.
Brief summary to follow (or click now for the full story)
Brief summary to follow (or click now for the full story)
Next week the Bank of England will publish an annual assessment of its £100 billion a year QT programme.
With gilt holdings down to £558 billion from £875 billion in 2022, markets expect QT to slow - and are increasingly looking for clarity on when it might stop.
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
With gilt holdings down to £558 billion from £875 billion in 2022, markets expect QT to slow - and are increasingly looking for clarity on when it might stop.
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
Bank of England poised to slow quantitative tightening after rise in yields
The Bank of England is expected to soon slow the pace at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile.
www.reuters.com
July 28, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Next week the Bank of England will publish an annual assessment of its £100 billion a year QT programme.
With gilt holdings down to £558 billion from £875 billion in 2022, markets expect QT to slow - and are increasingly looking for clarity on when it might stop.
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
With gilt holdings down to £558 billion from £875 billion in 2022, markets expect QT to slow - and are increasingly looking for clarity on when it might stop.
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
Reposted by David Milliken
UK firms lose taste for US investment, Deloitte survey shows www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
July 7, 2025 at 5:52 AM
UK firms lose taste for US investment, Deloitte survey shows www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
What goes up goes down again. After rising 25 basis points yesterday - their biggest one-day rise since October 2022 - 30-year UK gilt yields have fallen 20 basis points this morning after Trump paused some tariffs last night.
April 10, 2025 at 8:15 AM
What goes up goes down again. After rising 25 basis points yesterday - their biggest one-day rise since October 2022 - 30-year UK gilt yields have fallen 20 basis points this morning after Trump paused some tariffs last night.
30-year UK bond yields reached peaked at 5.649% today, their highest since May 1998.
They're on track to rise 0.19 percentage points today - the sharpest jump since Truss's mini-budget.
It's mostly a reaction to Trump, but also investor jitters about illiquid markets and the UK's high borrowing.
They're on track to rise 0.19 percentage points today - the sharpest jump since Truss's mini-budget.
It's mostly a reaction to Trump, but also investor jitters about illiquid markets and the UK's high borrowing.
April 9, 2025 at 3:22 PM
30-year UK bond yields reached peaked at 5.649% today, their highest since May 1998.
They're on track to rise 0.19 percentage points today - the sharpest jump since Truss's mini-budget.
It's mostly a reaction to Trump, but also investor jitters about illiquid markets and the UK's high borrowing.
They're on track to rise 0.19 percentage points today - the sharpest jump since Truss's mini-budget.
It's mostly a reaction to Trump, but also investor jitters about illiquid markets and the UK's high borrowing.
Not something you see evert day: 30-year UK government bond yields hit their highest since 1998 this morning, after an overnight selloff of US Treasuries
April 9, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Not something you see evert day: 30-year UK government bond yields hit their highest since 1998 this morning, after an overnight selloff of US Treasuries
Reposted by David Milliken
Unnerving moves in the gilt market today.
This afternoon pricing quality of the 30-year gilt seems to have deteriorated (h/t @davidmilliken.bsky.social)
LSEG data shows gaps, some lasting minutes (echoes of Sept 2022)
Suggests worsening market functioning/bad liquidity.
This afternoon pricing quality of the 30-year gilt seems to have deteriorated (h/t @davidmilliken.bsky.social)
LSEG data shows gaps, some lasting minutes (echoes of Sept 2022)
Suggests worsening market functioning/bad liquidity.
April 7, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Unnerving moves in the gilt market today.
This afternoon pricing quality of the 30-year gilt seems to have deteriorated (h/t @davidmilliken.bsky.social)
LSEG data shows gaps, some lasting minutes (echoes of Sept 2022)
Suggests worsening market functioning/bad liquidity.
This afternoon pricing quality of the 30-year gilt seems to have deteriorated (h/t @davidmilliken.bsky.social)
LSEG data shows gaps, some lasting minutes (echoes of Sept 2022)
Suggests worsening market functioning/bad liquidity.
A big change in Britain's bond issuance plans for the coming year: the lowest share of long-dated gilt issuance since 1990.
Read more in my interview with the Jessica Pulay, head of the UK Debt Management Office www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
Read more in my interview with the Jessica Pulay, head of the UK Debt Management Office www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
UK bond chief hails 'important shift' away from long-dated issuance
The head of the agency that issues British government bonds said there would be an "important shift" away from long-dated debt in the coming financial year in response to rising borrowing costs and reduced investor demand.
www.reuters.com
March 26, 2025 at 7:21 PM
A big change in Britain's bond issuance plans for the coming year: the lowest share of long-dated gilt issuance since 1990.
Read more in my interview with the Jessica Pulay, head of the UK Debt Management Office www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
Read more in my interview with the Jessica Pulay, head of the UK Debt Management Office www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
Britain's disability benefits system leaves almost no one happy.
It's expensive (by historic standards, if not internationally), gets few people back to work and appears to cause significant distress to many claimants.
For more, read here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
It's expensive (by historic standards, if not internationally), gets few people back to work and appears to cause significant distress to many claimants.
For more, read here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
UK faces hard choices over soaring disability costs
Britain's government wants to tame its ballooning bill for supporting people with disabilities and long-term health conditions which, despite the cost, leaves many claimants distressed or struggling to find work.
www.reuters.com
March 14, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Britain's disability benefits system leaves almost no one happy.
It's expensive (by historic standards, if not internationally), gets few people back to work and appears to cause significant distress to many claimants.
For more, read here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
It's expensive (by historic standards, if not internationally), gets few people back to work and appears to cause significant distress to many claimants.
For more, read here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
Today's UK CPI reading of 3% for January topped all forecasts in Reuters' poll (and the BoE's 2.8% forecast).
But in many ways it was a mirror image of December's weaker-than-expected 2.5% reading.
Air fares were a driving factor both times, adding 0.25pp in Dec and subtracting 0.14pp in Jan
But in many ways it was a mirror image of December's weaker-than-expected 2.5% reading.
Air fares were a driving factor both times, adding 0.25pp in Dec and subtracting 0.14pp in Jan
February 19, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Today's UK CPI reading of 3% for January topped all forecasts in Reuters' poll (and the BoE's 2.8% forecast).
But in many ways it was a mirror image of December's weaker-than-expected 2.5% reading.
Air fares were a driving factor both times, adding 0.25pp in Dec and subtracting 0.14pp in Jan
But in many ways it was a mirror image of December's weaker-than-expected 2.5% reading.
Air fares were a driving factor both times, adding 0.25pp in Dec and subtracting 0.14pp in Jan
Out overnight: Reuters' exclusive interview with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill.
Top line: he's cautious about further rate cuts (which isn't a no - but means a slowish pace) due to weaknesses in the supply side of the economy and it's ability to match demand.
Other key lines here:
Top line: he's cautious about further rate cuts (which isn't a no - but means a slowish pace) due to weaknesses in the supply side of the economy and it's ability to match demand.
Other key lines here:
February 13, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Out overnight: Reuters' exclusive interview with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill.
Top line: he's cautious about further rate cuts (which isn't a no - but means a slowish pace) due to weaknesses in the supply side of the economy and it's ability to match demand.
Other key lines here:
Top line: he's cautious about further rate cuts (which isn't a no - but means a slowish pace) due to weaknesses in the supply side of the economy and it's ability to match demand.
Other key lines here:
Some fairly dismal public sector productivity data out this morning from the ONS.
Productivity in the health service was up just 0.2% qq in Q3 2024 - despite the end of strikes - and is still nearly 19% below where it was in Q4 2019.
Productivity in the health service was up just 0.2% qq in Q3 2024 - despite the end of strikes - and is still nearly 19% below where it was in Q4 2019.
February 10, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Some fairly dismal public sector productivity data out this morning from the ONS.
Productivity in the health service was up just 0.2% qq in Q3 2024 - despite the end of strikes - and is still nearly 19% below where it was in Q4 2019.
Productivity in the health service was up just 0.2% qq in Q3 2024 - despite the end of strikes - and is still nearly 19% below where it was in Q4 2019.
Re-upping this piece of mine, which takes a look at how Britain finances (and refinances) £300 billion of government debt each year.
The starting point is that Britain is an outlier. The average maturity of a UK government bond trading today is 14 years, versus 7 years for other rich countries.
1/n
The starting point is that Britain is an outlier. The average maturity of a UK government bond trading today is 14 years, versus 7 years for other rich countries.
1/n
February 7, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Re-upping this piece of mine, which takes a look at how Britain finances (and refinances) £300 billion of government debt each year.
The starting point is that Britain is an outlier. The average maturity of a UK government bond trading today is 14 years, versus 7 years for other rich countries.
1/n
The starting point is that Britain is an outlier. The average maturity of a UK government bond trading today is 14 years, versus 7 years for other rich countries.
1/n
Today’s Bank of England rate cut was less dovish than it looks at first glance.
True, Catherine Mann wasn’t on anyone’s list as likely to vote for a 50 bp cut.
But on the hawkish side
- CPI to peak at 3.7% in Q3 and slowish to fall
- there’s a camp on the MPC who are “cautious” about further cuts
True, Catherine Mann wasn’t on anyone’s list as likely to vote for a 50 bp cut.
But on the hawkish side
- CPI to peak at 3.7% in Q3 and slowish to fall
- there’s a camp on the MPC who are “cautious” about further cuts
February 6, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Today’s Bank of England rate cut was less dovish than it looks at first glance.
True, Catherine Mann wasn’t on anyone’s list as likely to vote for a 50 bp cut.
But on the hawkish side
- CPI to peak at 3.7% in Q3 and slowish to fall
- there’s a camp on the MPC who are “cautious” about further cuts
True, Catherine Mann wasn’t on anyone’s list as likely to vote for a 50 bp cut.
But on the hawkish side
- CPI to peak at 3.7% in Q3 and slowish to fall
- there’s a camp on the MPC who are “cautious” about further cuts
Also coming up today: the Bank of England’s first decision of 2025 at 1200 GMT
- rate cut to from 4.75% to 4.5% expected
- risk of weaker near term growth forecasts but higher 2025 inflation than in November
- medium term inflation outlook may be lower
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
- rate cut to from 4.75% to 4.5% expected
- risk of weaker near term growth forecasts but higher 2025 inflation than in November
- medium term inflation outlook may be lower
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
Bank of England poised to cut rates but inflation worries linger
The Bank of England looks set to cut interest rates on Thursday for only the third time since just after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as it juggles the need to help the sluggish economy with still-strong inflation pressures.
www.reuters.com
February 6, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Also coming up today: the Bank of England’s first decision of 2025 at 1200 GMT
- rate cut to from 4.75% to 4.5% expected
- risk of weaker near term growth forecasts but higher 2025 inflation than in November
- medium term inflation outlook may be lower
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
- rate cut to from 4.75% to 4.5% expected
- risk of weaker near term growth forecasts but higher 2025 inflation than in November
- medium term inflation outlook may be lower
www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
How does last month’s UK gilt selloff (now reversed) affect UK bond issuance plans for 2025/26?
To some investors, it strengthens the case for the UK to speed up its shift away from long-dated gilts, where Britain has issued double the global average.
www.reuters.com/markets/rate...
To some investors, it strengthens the case for the UK to speed up its shift away from long-dated gilts, where Britain has issued double the global average.
www.reuters.com/markets/rate...
UK under pressure to issue fewer long-dated bonds
Britain is under pressure from bond dealers and investors to sell fewer long-dated government bonds - which briefly slumped in value earlier this year - as it seeks to finance around 300 billion pounds ($375 billion) of public borrowing next year.
www.reuters.com
February 6, 2025 at 9:13 AM
How does last month’s UK gilt selloff (now reversed) affect UK bond issuance plans for 2025/26?
To some investors, it strengthens the case for the UK to speed up its shift away from long-dated gilts, where Britain has issued double the global average.
www.reuters.com/markets/rate...
To some investors, it strengthens the case for the UK to speed up its shift away from long-dated gilts, where Britain has issued double the global average.
www.reuters.com/markets/rate...
Interesting detail in today's Bank of England data: foreign holdings of UK government bonds rose by a record £54 billion in Q4 2024.
The previous peak rise was £48 billion in late 2020.
Higher yields were likely a factor: the spread between UK and German 10-year yields hit its highest since 1990.
The previous peak rise was £48 billion in late 2020.
Higher yields were likely a factor: the spread between UK and German 10-year yields hit its highest since 1990.
January 30, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Interesting detail in today's Bank of England data: foreign holdings of UK government bonds rose by a record £54 billion in Q4 2024.
The previous peak rise was £48 billion in late 2020.
Higher yields were likely a factor: the spread between UK and German 10-year yields hit its highest since 1990.
The previous peak rise was £48 billion in late 2020.
Higher yields were likely a factor: the spread between UK and German 10-year yields hit its highest since 1990.
Pretty mixed picture - stagflationary even? - from today's jobs data.
HMRC payrolls show biggest fall in employees since Nov 2020 and jobless rate ticked up to 4.4%, highest since May.
But pay growth of 5.6% is also fastest since May (and fastest since 3 months to Feb for private sector).
HMRC payrolls show biggest fall in employees since Nov 2020 and jobless rate ticked up to 4.4%, highest since May.
But pay growth of 5.6% is also fastest since May (and fastest since 3 months to Feb for private sector).
👀
Biggest drop since November 2020.
Biggest drop since November 2020.
Thankfully no-one employs me to forecast anything, but I'll be watching the HMRC Payrolls number on Jan. 21 for a nasty reading (although who knows really since it is so prone to revision)
January 21, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Pretty mixed picture - stagflationary even? - from today's jobs data.
HMRC payrolls show biggest fall in employees since Nov 2020 and jobless rate ticked up to 4.4%, highest since May.
But pay growth of 5.6% is also fastest since May (and fastest since 3 months to Feb for private sector).
HMRC payrolls show biggest fall in employees since Nov 2020 and jobless rate ticked up to 4.4%, highest since May.
But pay growth of 5.6% is also fastest since May (and fastest since 3 months to Feb for private sector).
Today's rather lacklustre UK GDP data, via Reuters' William Schomberg and @subanabdulla.bsky.social
www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
UK economy barely grew in November after Reeves budget
Britain's economic output returned to growth in November, the first month after finance minister Rachel Reeves announced big tax increases for businesses, but the expansion was smaller than expected.
www.reuters.com
January 16, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Today's rather lacklustre UK GDP data, via Reuters' William Schomberg and @subanabdulla.bsky.social
www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
Reposted by David Milliken
Bank of England's Taylor: with the economy weakening, it’s time to get interest rates back toward normal to sustain a soft landing
January 15, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Bank of England's Taylor: with the economy weakening, it’s time to get interest rates back toward normal to sustain a soft landing
Big drop in UK gilt yields after today's lower than expected UK inflation. Two-year yields are on track for their biggest one-day fall since June 12 2024 (when some US inflation data came in below expectations).
January 15, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Big drop in UK gilt yields after today's lower than expected UK inflation. Two-year yields are on track for their biggest one-day fall since June 12 2024 (when some US inflation data came in below expectations).