David Berthon-Jones
@davidberthon-jones.bsky.social
Co-CIO, Aequitas Investment Partners. Information is general advice and prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
Well, that’s the sort of thing that will help $DXS.AX, alongside the story of possible corporate interest.
February 10, 2025 at 3:55 AM
Well, that’s the sort of thing that will help $DXS.AX, alongside the story of possible corporate interest.
If you are wondering how $JBH.AX managed to open up and wind up down, the multiple expansion is a good place to start. Share price has massively overshot the earnings growth, as such, the forward PE is around the same as $CSL.AX. Both great businesses, but pretty hefty increase.
February 10, 2025 at 2:50 AM
If you are wondering how $JBH.AX managed to open up and wind up down, the multiple expansion is a good place to start. Share price has massively overshot the earnings growth, as such, the forward PE is around the same as $CSL.AX. Both great businesses, but pretty hefty increase.
With $CAR.AX, $CAR, to me, the bigger issue, beyond the earnings quality questions of this result, is the price. 12x forward sales boggles my mind.
February 10, 2025 at 12:21 AM
With $CAR.AX, $CAR, to me, the bigger issue, beyond the earnings quality questions of this result, is the price. 12x forward sales boggles my mind.
Weather and other odds and sodds perhaps muddying the US jobs numbers. Still, a 4 handle on the unemployment rate is an enviable number.
February 9, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Weather and other odds and sodds perhaps muddying the US jobs numbers. Still, a 4 handle on the unemployment rate is an enviable number.
About as good as you could ask, really. KBU integration tracking ahead, cost out program delivering, gearing down eps guide up. $ANN.AX $ANN
February 9, 2025 at 9:04 PM
About as good as you could ask, really. KBU integration tracking ahead, cost out program delivering, gearing down eps guide up. $ANN.AX $ANN
Seems somewhat bullish for select REITs. I have a reasonable DAA allocation to them, and often worry because the very clever X account Ptuomov argues against them.
Been going through a bunch of apartment REIT earnings calls, and the universal message is “after the latter part of this year there won’t be any new apartments delivered until at least the latter part of 2027 so giddy up.”
February 8, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Seems somewhat bullish for select REITs. I have a reasonable DAA allocation to them, and often worry because the very clever X account Ptuomov argues against them.
Conor’s point on homebuilders seems very relevant for $JHX.AX, which is still quite elevated. Similar for $RWC.AX. These are local fund manager favourites
The four charts that lead me to believe the economy continues to slow in a concerning way:
1) the average workweek is very low
2) manufacturing job growth is negative and is worsening
3) the hires rate remains early 2010’s sluggish
4) the largest publicly-traded homebuilder stock is cratering
1) the average workweek is very low
2) manufacturing job growth is negative and is worsening
3) the hires rate remains early 2010’s sluggish
4) the largest publicly-traded homebuilder stock is cratering
February 8, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Conor’s point on homebuilders seems very relevant for $JHX.AX, which is still quite elevated. Similar for $RWC.AX. These are local fund manager favourites
Pondering the @delong.social BREXIT article, I wonder how people are meant to know what's really at stake. You rely on institutions, those institutions fail. Anything you do for a living, that isn't econ policy, you aren't going to be able to DYOR. And yet the consequences are huge.
February 8, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Pondering the @delong.social BREXIT article, I wonder how people are meant to know what's really at stake. You rely on institutions, those institutions fail. Anything you do for a living, that isn't econ policy, you aren't going to be able to DYOR. And yet the consequences are huge.
I've heard (read) rave reviews about some of the latest top tier paid for AI's (thinking about @tylercowen.bsky.social blogging at MR). And I was thinking about how (the very useful) entry level ($20 per month) Claude would "fluff" some relatively basic economic questions. It would fold...
February 8, 2025 at 4:47 AM
I've heard (read) rave reviews about some of the latest top tier paid for AI's (thinking about @tylercowen.bsky.social blogging at MR). And I was thinking about how (the very useful) entry level ($20 per month) Claude would "fluff" some relatively basic economic questions. It would fold...
$DMP.AX $DMP certainly has all the hallmarks of a turnaround. Old CEO is out, the old growth strategy has changed (hence closing the underperforming stores) and maybe the rebased earnings has fallen enough that growth can begin again. However I'd say that DMP, whilst certainly very...
February 7, 2025 at 5:19 AM
$DMP.AX $DMP certainly has all the hallmarks of a turnaround. Old CEO is out, the old growth strategy has changed (hence closing the underperforming stores) and maybe the rebased earnings has fallen enough that growth can begin again. However I'd say that DMP, whilst certainly very...
UK losses to increase given build out, ANZ store rollout slows/pushed out, and some very difficult to read sales volatility in local trading (-8.5%, then +5%). $NCK.AX Freight costs not getting much airplay this time around.
February 6, 2025 at 10:14 PM
UK losses to increase given build out, ANZ store rollout slows/pushed out, and some very difficult to read sales volatility in local trading (-8.5%, then +5%). $NCK.AX Freight costs not getting much airplay this time around.
$RI.FP putting an understandable but near comical positive spin on geographic breadth. "Ex USA and China, our sales were flat!". Spirits in the doldrums.
February 6, 2025 at 8:15 PM
$RI.FP putting an understandable but near comical positive spin on geographic breadth. "Ex USA and China, our sales were flat!". Spirits in the doldrums.
Interesting from $COF.AX $COF. Data centre-esq pivot to monetise underutilised space. There's loads of examples about office-to-resi conversions, this one is a bit novel (at least to my ears) but a good example of adaptation.
February 6, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Interesting from $COF.AX $COF. Data centre-esq pivot to monetise underutilised space. There's loads of examples about office-to-resi conversions, this one is a bit novel (at least to my ears) but a good example of adaptation.
Krugman with interesting thoughts on tech. Imv, Mag 7 are over-cooked, the capex won't generate the returns they are hoping for, and whilst maybe not akin to lighting money on fire is closer to that than the nibbana they see it as.
February 6, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Krugman with interesting thoughts on tech. Imv, Mag 7 are over-cooked, the capex won't generate the returns they are hoping for, and whilst maybe not akin to lighting money on fire is closer to that than the nibbana they see it as.
The Berry acquisition continues to look a) compelling b) underappreciated in our view. $AMC.AX $AMCR.US. The expected EPS accretion is quite large, if they get anywhere near this, it would be a strong outcome.
February 4, 2025 at 8:56 PM
The Berry acquisition continues to look a) compelling b) underappreciated in our view. $AMC.AX $AMCR.US. The expected EPS accretion is quite large, if they get anywhere near this, it would be a strong outcome.
These aren't the kind of headlines you can (the vast majority anyway) make money on. You'll just get whipsawed.
February 3, 2025 at 11:25 PM
These aren't the kind of headlines you can (the vast majority anyway) make money on. You'll just get whipsawed.
A whole bunch of punting would appear neccessary, given industry profitability has been decimated, and even before COVID eps growth has been scant. $RHC.AX $RHC. CEO clearing the decks, and accountability for a share price in the low 30s that's followed the earnings.
January 30, 2025 at 11:09 PM
A whole bunch of punting would appear neccessary, given industry profitability has been decimated, and even before COVID eps growth has been scant. $RHC.AX $RHC. CEO clearing the decks, and accountability for a share price in the low 30s that's followed the earnings.
Looking at the recovery (charts from
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
January 30, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Looking at the recovery (charts from
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
Well, that's a lot of "0.5%"s, a very noticeable drop compared to the previous. Aus inflation comes in very benign. Market sure liked it.
January 29, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Well, that's a lot of "0.5%"s, a very noticeable drop compared to the previous. Aus inflation comes in very benign. Market sure liked it.
Coal prices in the doldrums, but (iov) $WHC.AX providing good optionality to China stimmy + LR India growth story + base story of doubled production w/o dilution. Costs at lower end of guided range, more cost out to come, balance sheet getting $1bn injection. Story remains solid
January 28, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Coal prices in the doldrums, but (iov) $WHC.AX providing good optionality to China stimmy + LR India growth story + base story of doubled production w/o dilution. Costs at lower end of guided range, more cost out to come, balance sheet getting $1bn injection. Story remains solid
I would have said the +7% bounce back is not at all convincing. The armour to the investment narrative remains severely dented. $NVDA Absent a more fulsome embrace/swift-return-to-form, this appears more like a dead cat bounce.
January 28, 2025 at 8:07 PM
I would have said the +7% bounce back is not at all convincing. The armour to the investment narrative remains severely dented. $NVDA Absent a more fulsome embrace/swift-return-to-form, this appears more like a dead cat bounce.
The China PMIs (Jan) didn't seem great. Services fell backwards. Not terrible, but we want the "economic data to go up". However, the various money & credit aggregates do appear to be trending in the right direction? Policy signals appear to be there (maybe waiting for tariffs?).
January 28, 2025 at 1:19 AM
The China PMIs (Jan) didn't seem great. Services fell backwards. Not terrible, but we want the "economic data to go up". However, the various money & credit aggregates do appear to be trending in the right direction? Policy signals appear to be there (maybe waiting for tariffs?).
The whole "tech is immune to or orthogonal to high interest rates" as a function of opportunity cost or relative value, goes out the window when the capex-to-ROIC argument goes out the same window.
January 27, 2025 at 9:10 PM
The whole "tech is immune to or orthogonal to high interest rates" as a function of opportunity cost or relative value, goes out the window when the capex-to-ROIC argument goes out the same window.
I don't know if DeepSeek is "it". But I do know a broken narrative when I see one, or, at the least, a moat that has been partially drained, partially breached, and potentially crossed.
January 27, 2025 at 8:42 PM
I don't know if DeepSeek is "it". But I do know a broken narrative when I see one, or, at the least, a moat that has been partially drained, partially breached, and potentially crossed.
I really can’t see it. Had the unemployment rate kept going up, as I thought it was going to do, some quarters ago, sure. But it stopped, went back down, state government deficits got larger, and inflation remained outside the range…
January 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
I really can’t see it. Had the unemployment rate kept going up, as I thought it was going to do, some quarters ago, sure. But it stopped, went back down, state government deficits got larger, and inflation remained outside the range…