David Berthon-Jones
@davidberthon-jones.bsky.social
Co-CIO, Aequitas Investment Partners. Information is general advice and prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
Well, that’s the sort of thing that will help $DXS.AX, alongside the story of possible corporate interest.
February 10, 2025 at 3:55 AM
Well, that’s the sort of thing that will help $DXS.AX, alongside the story of possible corporate interest.
With $CAR.AX, $CAR, to me, the bigger issue, beyond the earnings quality questions of this result, is the price. 12x forward sales boggles my mind.
February 10, 2025 at 12:21 AM
With $CAR.AX, $CAR, to me, the bigger issue, beyond the earnings quality questions of this result, is the price. 12x forward sales boggles my mind.
Weather and other odds and sodds perhaps muddying the US jobs numbers. Still, a 4 handle on the unemployment rate is an enviable number.
February 9, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Weather and other odds and sodds perhaps muddying the US jobs numbers. Still, a 4 handle on the unemployment rate is an enviable number.
About as good as you could ask, really. KBU integration tracking ahead, cost out program delivering, gearing down eps guide up. $ANN.AX $ANN
February 9, 2025 at 9:04 PM
About as good as you could ask, really. KBU integration tracking ahead, cost out program delivering, gearing down eps guide up. $ANN.AX $ANN
Pondering the @delong.social BREXIT article, I wonder how people are meant to know what's really at stake. You rely on institutions, those institutions fail. Anything you do for a living, that isn't econ policy, you aren't going to be able to DYOR. And yet the consequences are huge.
February 8, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Pondering the @delong.social BREXIT article, I wonder how people are meant to know what's really at stake. You rely on institutions, those institutions fail. Anything you do for a living, that isn't econ policy, you aren't going to be able to DYOR. And yet the consequences are huge.
$DMP.AX $DMP certainly has all the hallmarks of a turnaround. Old CEO is out, the old growth strategy has changed (hence closing the underperforming stores) and maybe the rebased earnings has fallen enough that growth can begin again. However I'd say that DMP, whilst certainly very...
February 7, 2025 at 5:19 AM
$DMP.AX $DMP certainly has all the hallmarks of a turnaround. Old CEO is out, the old growth strategy has changed (hence closing the underperforming stores) and maybe the rebased earnings has fallen enough that growth can begin again. However I'd say that DMP, whilst certainly very...
UK losses to increase given build out, ANZ store rollout slows/pushed out, and some very difficult to read sales volatility in local trading (-8.5%, then +5%). $NCK.AX Freight costs not getting much airplay this time around.
February 6, 2025 at 10:14 PM
UK losses to increase given build out, ANZ store rollout slows/pushed out, and some very difficult to read sales volatility in local trading (-8.5%, then +5%). $NCK.AX Freight costs not getting much airplay this time around.
$RI.FP putting an understandable but near comical positive spin on geographic breadth. "Ex USA and China, our sales were flat!". Spirits in the doldrums.
February 6, 2025 at 8:15 PM
$RI.FP putting an understandable but near comical positive spin on geographic breadth. "Ex USA and China, our sales were flat!". Spirits in the doldrums.
Interesting from $COF.AX $COF. Data centre-esq pivot to monetise underutilised space. There's loads of examples about office-to-resi conversions, this one is a bit novel (at least to my ears) but a good example of adaptation.
February 6, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Interesting from $COF.AX $COF. Data centre-esq pivot to monetise underutilised space. There's loads of examples about office-to-resi conversions, this one is a bit novel (at least to my ears) but a good example of adaptation.
Krugman with interesting thoughts on tech. Imv, Mag 7 are over-cooked, the capex won't generate the returns they are hoping for, and whilst maybe not akin to lighting money on fire is closer to that than the nibbana they see it as.
February 6, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Krugman with interesting thoughts on tech. Imv, Mag 7 are over-cooked, the capex won't generate the returns they are hoping for, and whilst maybe not akin to lighting money on fire is closer to that than the nibbana they see it as.
Solid operating leverage evident. Sales +0.4%, EBIT +5%. The main driver has been "AMC really suffered during the COVID-recovery period, as AMC customers drew down bloated inventories, and as such had to go and find a whole bunch of ways to take cost out".
February 4, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Solid operating leverage evident. Sales +0.4%, EBIT +5%. The main driver has been "AMC really suffered during the COVID-recovery period, as AMC customers drew down bloated inventories, and as such had to go and find a whole bunch of ways to take cost out".
The Berry acquisition continues to look a) compelling b) underappreciated in our view. $AMC.AX $AMCR.US. The expected EPS accretion is quite large, if they get anywhere near this, it would be a strong outcome.
February 4, 2025 at 8:56 PM
The Berry acquisition continues to look a) compelling b) underappreciated in our view. $AMC.AX $AMCR.US. The expected EPS accretion is quite large, if they get anywhere near this, it would be a strong outcome.
A whole bunch of punting would appear neccessary, given industry profitability has been decimated, and even before COVID eps growth has been scant. $RHC.AX $RHC. CEO clearing the decks, and accountability for a share price in the low 30s that's followed the earnings.
January 30, 2025 at 11:09 PM
A whole bunch of punting would appear neccessary, given industry profitability has been decimated, and even before COVID eps growth has been scant. $RHC.AX $RHC. CEO clearing the decks, and accountability for a share price in the low 30s that's followed the earnings.
The bubbles are either less bubbly, or the ability of households to adapt is far higher. Housing certainly led NZ into the doldrums, and now (alongside the necessary rate cuts) appear set to lead it back out again. Maybe it is "as long as your CB doesn't make a repeated error"...
January 30, 2025 at 3:17 AM
The bubbles are either less bubbly, or the ability of households to adapt is far higher. Housing certainly led NZ into the doldrums, and now (alongside the necessary rate cuts) appear set to lead it back out again. Maybe it is "as long as your CB doesn't make a repeated error"...
Looking at the recovery (charts from
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
January 30, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Looking at the recovery (charts from
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
@antipodeanmacro.bsky.social) in New Zealand housing activity, I can't help but think the whole "housing bubbles + high household debt are the toxic combo to avoid at all costs" narrative can't quite be all there is.
Well, that's a lot of "0.5%"s, a very noticeable drop compared to the previous. Aus inflation comes in very benign. Market sure liked it.
January 29, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Well, that's a lot of "0.5%"s, a very noticeable drop compared to the previous. Aus inflation comes in very benign. Market sure liked it.
Coal prices in the doldrums, but (iov) $WHC.AX providing good optionality to China stimmy + LR India growth story + base story of doubled production w/o dilution. Costs at lower end of guided range, more cost out to come, balance sheet getting $1bn injection. Story remains solid
January 28, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Coal prices in the doldrums, but (iov) $WHC.AX providing good optionality to China stimmy + LR India growth story + base story of doubled production w/o dilution. Costs at lower end of guided range, more cost out to come, balance sheet getting $1bn injection. Story remains solid
The China PMIs (Jan) didn't seem great. Services fell backwards. Not terrible, but we want the "economic data to go up". However, the various money & credit aggregates do appear to be trending in the right direction? Policy signals appear to be there (maybe waiting for tariffs?).
January 28, 2025 at 1:19 AM
The China PMIs (Jan) didn't seem great. Services fell backwards. Not terrible, but we want the "economic data to go up". However, the various money & credit aggregates do appear to be trending in the right direction? Policy signals appear to be there (maybe waiting for tariffs?).
I really can’t see it. Had the unemployment rate kept going up, as I thought it was going to do, some quarters ago, sure. But it stopped, went back down, state government deficits got larger, and inflation remained outside the range…
January 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
I really can’t see it. Had the unemployment rate kept going up, as I thought it was going to do, some quarters ago, sure. But it stopped, went back down, state government deficits got larger, and inflation remained outside the range…
Santos $STO.AX $STO (from the headline here in the Australian) via the moneyofminepod daily email (which is great btw) gets no love either way. Prioritise shareholder returns from an underindexing project, shares sell off. Progress on big Barossa/Pikka project, shares sell off...
January 22, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Santos $STO.AX $STO (from the headline here in the Australian) via the moneyofminepod daily email (which is great btw) gets no love either way. Prioritise shareholder returns from an underindexing project, shares sell off. Progress on big Barossa/Pikka project, shares sell off...
Good quarterly result from Woodies $WDS.AX $WDS production at upper end of guidance capex at lower end. World needs energy.
January 21, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Good quarterly result from Woodies $WDS.AX $WDS production at upper end of guidance capex at lower end. World needs energy.
Nothing too bad, relative to expectations. It is minute one, into a 2,102,400 minute-long administration. But so far so good, broadly speaking.
January 20, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Nothing too bad, relative to expectations. It is minute one, into a 2,102,400 minute-long administration. But so far so good, broadly speaking.
Nek minnit
January 19, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Nek minnit
Yes the president coin is mooning, and there's plenty of frothy behaviour in what I'd call the non-traditionals. But for me, the below is next level madness, because there is literally nothing to get excited by, and yet...! $CBA.AX $CBA
January 19, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Yes the president coin is mooning, and there's plenty of frothy behaviour in what I'd call the non-traditionals. But for me, the below is next level madness, because there is literally nothing to get excited by, and yet...! $CBA.AX $CBA
Reverts, remains, retains, given the framing from the head of stats, to be clear :) Yields and dollar higher, for now.
January 16, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Reverts, remains, retains, given the framing from the head of stats, to be clear :) Yields and dollar higher, for now.