David Berthon-Jones
@davidberthon-jones.bsky.social
Co-CIO, Aequitas Investment Partners. Information is general advice and prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
When a stock drops on a good result, it's usually a marker that the top is in. That's a heuristic only, but it's not a bad one.
February 10, 2025 at 2:50 AM
When a stock drops on a good result, it's usually a marker that the top is in. That's a heuristic only, but it's not a bad one.
Maybe restated. I worry the cheap versions, lower tier levels of product that "sorta kinda" work, but leaves you unaware that two more meters forward on the technological frontier on which your treading will 10x the experience, and I just don’t know what I don’t know.
February 8, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Maybe restated. I worry the cheap versions, lower tier levels of product that "sorta kinda" work, but leaves you unaware that two more meters forward on the technological frontier on which your treading will 10x the experience, and I just don’t know what I don’t know.
But it does seem inevitable that I'll have to fork out for these (only slightly) more expensive versions to have a play, and see if they've solved the problem of "often people back down on a topic when you challenge them (even if right) and thus so too does the all too human AI".
February 8, 2025 at 4:48 AM
But it does seem inevitable that I'll have to fork out for these (only slightly) more expensive versions to have a play, and see if they've solved the problem of "often people back down on a topic when you challenge them (even if right) and thus so too does the all too human AI".
..on its answers at the slightest of pushbacks, leaving me to be unsure of whether I was right and the software wrong, or I was wrong but the software was “guessing that the next logical expected step was an apology” based on how I was responding to its answers.
February 8, 2025 at 4:48 AM
..on its answers at the slightest of pushbacks, leaving me to be unsure of whether I was right and the software wrong, or I was wrong but the software was “guessing that the next logical expected step was an apology” based on how I was responding to its answers.
...as is ever increasing competition from alternatives (Taco Bell, new burrito stores, whatever it might be).
February 7, 2025 at 5:20 AM
...as is ever increasing competition from alternatives (Taco Bell, new burrito stores, whatever it might be).
..."unambiguously cheap" which is generally where you want to be buying turnarounds (ideally, at any rate, sometimes you get stuck in them). In the very long run, I also see the GLP-1s as something of an overhang to long run demand...
February 7, 2025 at 5:20 AM
..."unambiguously cheap" which is generally where you want to be buying turnarounds (ideally, at any rate, sometimes you get stuck in them). In the very long run, I also see the GLP-1s as something of an overhang to long run demand...
interesting, never really ditched it's "growth multiple" in our view (similar framing from @bowtiedstocks). Prior to today, it was still trading above 22-23x forward earnings. Now maybe that really was trough earnings, but I don't you could say it had gotten...
February 7, 2025 at 5:19 AM
interesting, never really ditched it's "growth multiple" in our view (similar framing from @bowtiedstocks). Prior to today, it was still trading above 22-23x forward earnings. Now maybe that really was trough earnings, but I don't you could say it had gotten...
Solid operating leverage evident. Sales +0.4%, EBIT +5%. The main driver has been "AMC really suffered during the COVID-recovery period, as AMC customers drew down bloated inventories, and as such had to go and find a whole bunch of ways to take cost out".
February 4, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Solid operating leverage evident. Sales +0.4%, EBIT +5%. The main driver has been "AMC really suffered during the COVID-recovery period, as AMC customers drew down bloated inventories, and as such had to go and find a whole bunch of ways to take cost out".
In short, whilst these are the kind of markets where DAA trades are more target rich, we still need to see some more oommph behind the changes for now.
February 3, 2025 at 11:26 PM
In short, whilst these are the kind of markets where DAA trades are more target rich, we still need to see some more oommph behind the changes for now.
After all, intra year drawdowns of 10% are the norm in equity markets. They just happen a little slower, and with less newsflow, drifting somewhat randomly on the back of millions of decisions made at the margin by market participants for reasons you can often only guess at...
February 3, 2025 at 11:26 PM
After all, intra year drawdowns of 10% are the norm in equity markets. They just happen a little slower, and with less newsflow, drifting somewhat randomly on the back of millions of decisions made at the margin by market participants for reasons you can often only guess at...