Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
#Survivor49 Predictions
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
#Survivor49 Predictions
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game.
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
November 14, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game.
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
November 14, 2025 at 7:59 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 AM
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
November 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 AM
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
November 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 AM
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
November 6, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
November 4, 2025 at 10:25 AM
MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
November 1, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
#Survivor49 who has voted with who
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
October 30, 2025 at 10:56 AM
#Survivor49 who has voted with who
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 30, 2025 at 10:49 AM
#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
October 27, 2025 at 4:43 AM
In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 24, 2025 at 11:53 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Finally, I fit a model to see if there was an association between the number of combined immunity reward challenges and the number of players who had not attended tribal in 5 episodes, while controlling for the number of starting tribes.
Both variables are significant‼️
Both variables are significant‼️
October 24, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Finally, I fit a model to see if there was an association between the number of combined immunity reward challenges and the number of players who had not attended tribal in 5 episodes, while controlling for the number of starting tribes.
Both variables are significant‼️
Both variables are significant‼️
So, I charted how many combined immunity and reward challenges there have been.
The trend looks pretty familiar to me! There's definitely an increasing trend.
The two big spikes are Redemption Island seasons to put them aside.
The trend looks pretty familiar to me! There's definitely an increasing trend.
The two big spikes are Redemption Island seasons to put them aside.
October 24, 2025 at 11:51 AM
So, I charted how many combined immunity and reward challenges there have been.
The trend looks pretty familiar to me! There's definitely an increasing trend.
The two big spikes are Redemption Island seasons to put them aside.
The trend looks pretty familiar to me! There's definitely an increasing trend.
The two big spikes are Redemption Island seasons to put them aside.
The chart shows how many players have not attended Tribal Council in the first 5 episodes of the season.
Notice a trend?
8/11 seasons had 3 starting tribes and there's clearly been a change since S25
What may have changed?
Notice a trend?
8/11 seasons had 3 starting tribes and there's clearly been a change since S25
What may have changed?
October 24, 2025 at 11:51 AM
The chart shows how many players have not attended Tribal Council in the first 5 episodes of the season.
Notice a trend?
8/11 seasons had 3 starting tribes and there's clearly been a change since S25
What may have changed?
Notice a trend?
8/11 seasons had 3 starting tribes and there's clearly been a change since S25
What may have changed?
Today's #Survivor rabbit hole
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
October 24, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Today's #Survivor rabbit hole
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
Sol!
He's a huge outlier, and I think we all know why. It's that fine leather waistcoat!
He's a huge outlier, and I think we all know why. It's that fine leather waistcoat!
October 20, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Sol!
He's a huge outlier, and I think we all know why. It's that fine leather waistcoat!
He's a huge outlier, and I think we all know why. It's that fine leather waistcoat!
One thing stood out to me, though. There were not a lot of older players above the line.
If I fit a line for players over 40 it's basically flat showing there's no relationship and very different from those 18-39.
Except for one player...
If I fit a line for players over 40 it's basically flat showing there's no relationship and very different from those 18-39.
Except for one player...
October 20, 2025 at 7:37 PM
One thing stood out to me, though. There were not a lot of older players above the line.
If I fit a line for players over 40 it's basically flat showing there's no relationship and very different from those 18-39.
Except for one player...
If I fit a line for players over 40 it's basically flat showing there's no relationship and very different from those 18-39.
Except for one player...
Let's zoom in on Love. The positive trend is pretty strong so that's a tick for the first hypothesis.
But, I was wrong about Star given where she sits on the chart (8, 45%).
In that case, who is the most loved player after accounting for confessionals?
But, I was wrong about Star given where she sits on the chart (8, 45%).
In that case, who is the most loved player after accounting for confessionals?
October 20, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Let's zoom in on Love. The positive trend is pretty strong so that's a tick for the first hypothesis.
But, I was wrong about Star given where she sits on the chart (8, 45%).
In that case, who is the most loved player after accounting for confessionals?
But, I was wrong about Star given where she sits on the chart (8, 45%).
In that case, who is the most loved player after accounting for confessionals?