Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!
Anyway, hi all 👋
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
#survivor49
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
#survivor49
A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.
#Survivor
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.
#Survivor
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and
2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals
But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵
#Survivor
1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and
2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals
But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵
#Survivor
Savannah and Sophi are the outliers in the pre-merge game. Probably post-merge as well.
#Survivor
Savannah and Sophi are the outliers in the pre-merge game. Probably post-merge as well.
#Survivor
github.com/doehm/survivoR
github.com/doehm/survivoR
After the merge we'll see who stands out in Hina and Uli (other than Rizo)
#Survivor
After the merge we'll see who stands out in Hina and Uli (other than Rizo)
#Survivor
Savannah has 2.2x more than expected, the 7th highest at this point in the new era. Above her is a winner, a runner-up up and two 4th-place finishers
1. Aysha 2.8x
2. Charlie 2.5x
3. Carson 2.3x
4. Yam Yam 2.3x
5. Jesse 2.2x
6. David 2.2x
7. Savannah 2.2x
Savannah has 2.2x more than expected, the 7th highest at this point in the new era. Above her is a winner, a runner-up up and two 4th-place finishers
1. Aysha 2.8x
2. Charlie 2.5x
3. Carson 2.3x
4. Yam Yam 2.3x
5. Jesse 2.2x
6. David 2.2x
7. Savannah 2.2x