Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Pinned
Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
· Jan 4
I guess I'm over here as well and hoping it can achieve the critical mass needed to sustain people's interest.
Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!
Anyway, hi all 👋
Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!
Anyway, hi all 👋
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 AM
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
November 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 AM
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
November 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 AM
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
November 6, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
#Survivor49
(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))
MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
November 4, 2025 at 10:25 AM
MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.
#Survivor49
Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
November 1, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.
It's an interesting pattern though.
#Survivor49 #dataviz
Reposted by Dan Oehm
The illustrious Rio Teixeira — artist behind many of your favorite #Survivor projects (including #FUPASU) — joined us to chat Sage v Shannon, galaxy brain knowledge is power ideas, & more!
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
#survivor49
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
#survivor49
November 1, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The illustrious Rio Teixeira — artist behind many of your favorite #Survivor projects (including #FUPASU) — joined us to chat Sage v Shannon, galaxy brain knowledge is power ideas, & more!
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
#survivor49
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
#survivor49
I hate to break it to Jeff, but 3 tribes increases the places to hide and suppresses gameplay.
A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.
#Survivor
A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.
#Survivor
Today's #Survivor rabbit hole
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
October 30, 2025 at 11:06 AM
I hate to break it to Jeff, but 3 tribes increases the places to hide and suppresses gameplay.
A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.
#Survivor
A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.
#Survivor
#Survivor49 who has voted with who
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
October 30, 2025 at 10:56 AM
#Survivor49 who has voted with who
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made
Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli
I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week
#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 30, 2025 at 10:49 AM
#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
Turns out, massively important!
I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵
#Survivor #Survivor49
In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
October 27, 2025 at 4:43 AM
In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
October 24, 2025 at 11:53 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x
Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected
Today's #Survivor rabbit hole
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
October 24, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Today's #Survivor rabbit hole
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council
What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵
@robsfactchecker.bsky.social was kind enough to share his polling data with me to test a couple of hypotheses:
1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and
2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals
But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵
#Survivor
1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and
2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals
But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵
#Survivor
October 20, 2025 at 7:37 PM
@robsfactchecker.bsky.social was kind enough to share his polling data with me to test a couple of hypotheses:
1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and
2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals
But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵
#Survivor
1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and
2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals
But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵
#Survivor
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah and Sophi are the outliers in the pre-merge game. Probably post-merge as well.
#Survivor
Savannah and Sophi are the outliers in the pre-merge game. Probably post-merge as well.
#Survivor
October 20, 2025 at 7:25 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah and Sophi are the outliers in the pre-merge game. Probably post-merge as well.
#Survivor
Savannah and Sophi are the outliers in the pre-merge game. Probably post-merge as well.
#Survivor
survivoR 2.3.8 is now up with a few data fixes. Next release will be once #survivor49 has wrapped up. #Survivor #Rstats
github.com/doehm/survivoR
github.com/doehm/survivoR
GitHub - doehm/survivoR: Data sets from Survivor in R
Data sets from Survivor in R. Contribute to doehm/survivoR development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
October 10, 2025 at 11:29 PM
survivoR 2.3.8 is now up with a few data fixes. Next release will be once #survivor49 has wrapped up. #Survivor #Rstats
github.com/doehm/survivoR
github.com/doehm/survivoR
#Survivor49 Confessionals/hr
After the merge we'll see who stands out in Hina and Uli (other than Rizo)
#Survivor
After the merge we'll see who stands out in Hina and Uli (other than Rizo)
#Survivor
October 10, 2025 at 11:26 PM
#Survivor49 Confessionals/hr
After the merge we'll see who stands out in Hina and Uli (other than Rizo)
#Survivor
After the merge we'll see who stands out in Hina and Uli (other than Rizo)
#Survivor
#Survivor49 confessionals/hr
Savannah has 2.2x more than expected, the 7th highest at this point in the new era. Above her is a winner, a runner-up up and two 4th-place finishers
1. Aysha 2.8x
2. Charlie 2.5x
3. Carson 2.3x
4. Yam Yam 2.3x
5. Jesse 2.2x
6. David 2.2x
7. Savannah 2.2x
Savannah has 2.2x more than expected, the 7th highest at this point in the new era. Above her is a winner, a runner-up up and two 4th-place finishers
1. Aysha 2.8x
2. Charlie 2.5x
3. Carson 2.3x
4. Yam Yam 2.3x
5. Jesse 2.2x
6. David 2.2x
7. Savannah 2.2x
October 3, 2025 at 12:38 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals/hr
Savannah has 2.2x more than expected, the 7th highest at this point in the new era. Above her is a winner, a runner-up up and two 4th-place finishers
1. Aysha 2.8x
2. Charlie 2.5x
3. Carson 2.3x
4. Yam Yam 2.3x
5. Jesse 2.2x
6. David 2.2x
7. Savannah 2.2x
Savannah has 2.2x more than expected, the 7th highest at this point in the new era. Above her is a winner, a runner-up up and two 4th-place finishers
1. Aysha 2.8x
2. Charlie 2.5x
3. Carson 2.3x
4. Yam Yam 2.3x
5. Jesse 2.2x
6. David 2.2x
7. Savannah 2.2x
#Survivor49 Confessionals/hr - why are Rizo and The Kele tribe (almost) all near the top?
- Rizo and Alex competed in the fight for supplies challenge
- Rizo won and provided for his tribe
- Kele lost and went to tribal
Also, Rizo has the 5th highest cph after e1 in the new era
- Rizo and Alex competed in the fight for supplies challenge
- Rizo won and provided for his tribe
- Kele lost and went to tribal
Also, Rizo has the 5th highest cph after e1 in the new era
September 30, 2025 at 9:53 AM
#Survivor49 Confessionals/hr - why are Rizo and The Kele tribe (almost) all near the top?
- Rizo and Alex competed in the fight for supplies challenge
- Rizo won and provided for his tribe
- Kele lost and went to tribal
Also, Rizo has the 5th highest cph after e1 in the new era
- Rizo and Alex competed in the fight for supplies challenge
- Rizo won and provided for his tribe
- Kele lost and went to tribal
Also, Rizo has the 5th highest cph after e1 in the new era
The confessional timing app is good to go for #Survivor49. It's borderline impossible for me to do this these days, so if you use it, let me know.
September 24, 2025 at 12:27 PM
The confessional timing app is good to go for #Survivor49. It's borderline impossible for me to do this these days, so if you use it, let me know.
I've pulled together a table of career rounds played - a round is essentially a tribal council. If I've done this right Parvati is killing it.
5 seasons
81 rounds in total
66 rounds survived
2 rounds not survived (voted out)
3 Final tribal councils
10 rounds in limbo (EoE)
🧵 #Survivor
5 seasons
81 rounds in total
66 rounds survived
2 rounds not survived (voted out)
3 Final tribal councils
10 rounds in limbo (EoE)
🧵 #Survivor
September 18, 2025 at 10:30 AM
I've pulled together a table of career rounds played - a round is essentially a tribal council. If I've done this right Parvati is killing it.
5 seasons
81 rounds in total
66 rounds survived
2 rounds not survived (voted out)
3 Final tribal councils
10 rounds in limbo (EoE)
🧵 #Survivor
5 seasons
81 rounds in total
66 rounds survived
2 rounds not survived (voted out)
3 Final tribal councils
10 rounds in limbo (EoE)
🧵 #Survivor