Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Pinned
Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
· Jan 4
I guess I'm over here as well and hoping it can achieve the critical mass needed to sustain people's interest.
Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!
Anyway, hi all 👋
Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!
Anyway, hi all 👋
#Survivor 50 cast timeline. No new information here, just that I find it wild that there are 3 winners from the New Era and none from the Classic Era. I also just like this chart.
January 2, 2026 at 11:45 AM
#Survivor 50 cast timeline. No new information here, just that I find it wild that there are 3 winners from the New Era and none from the Classic Era. I also just like this chart.
#Survivor 50 has the most experienced cast out of the 6 all returnee seasons based on total rounds survived, but the second most experienced based on avg rounds survived, behind WaW and close to HvV. A round is the time until a player leaves the game i.e. voted out, etc.
January 2, 2026 at 5:12 AM
#Survivor 50 has the most experienced cast out of the 6 all returnee seasons based on total rounds survived, but the second most experienced based on avg rounds survived, behind WaW and close to HvV. A round is the time until a player leaves the game i.e. voted out, etc.
Honestly, I resisted doing this at the start of the season. I thought anyone who refers to themself as 'Riz God' is going to have to earn it. Consider it earned!
#Survivor
#Survivor
December 22, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Honestly, I resisted doing this at the start of the season. I thought anyone who refers to themself as 'Riz God' is going to have to earn it. Consider it earned!
#Survivor
#Survivor
#Survivor49 data is now up on Git and ready to download.
🔗 github.com/doehm/surviv...
There are just a few minor things I'm waiting on and will officially release the new version in a few days. But still good to use now 👍
🔗 github.com/doehm/surviv...
There are just a few minor things I'm waiting on and will officially release the new version in a few days. But still good to use now 👍
GitHub - doehm/survivoR: Data sets from Survivor in R
Data sets from Survivor in R. Contribute to doehm/survivoR development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
December 19, 2025 at 12:03 PM
#Survivor49 data is now up on Git and ready to download.
🔗 github.com/doehm/surviv...
There are just a few minor things I'm waiting on and will officially release the new version in a few days. But still good to use now 👍
🔗 github.com/doehm/surviv...
There are just a few minor things I'm waiting on and will officially release the new version in a few days. But still good to use now 👍
The good news for #Survivor 50 is that mostly returnee seasons (including fan v favs) tend to rate more highly than mostly newbie seasons.
IMDb ratings:
• Mostly returnee: 7.9
• Mostly newbie: 7.5
A statistically significant amount
IMDb ratings:
• Mostly returnee: 7.9
• Mostly newbie: 7.5
A statistically significant amount
December 19, 2025 at 11:39 AM
The good news for #Survivor 50 is that mostly returnee seasons (including fan v favs) tend to rate more highly than mostly newbie seasons.
IMDb ratings:
• Mostly returnee: 7.9
• Mostly newbie: 7.5
A statistically significant amount
IMDb ratings:
• Mostly returnee: 7.9
• Mostly newbie: 7.5
A statistically significant amount
Where does #Survivor49 rank according to IMDb ratings? Err, not high.
New Era seasons are highlighted with a ⭐.
0𝟷. 𝚂𝟹𝟷 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟺𝟸
0𝟸. 𝚂𝟺0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟹𝟺
0𝟹. 𝚂0𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟼
0𝟺. 𝚂𝟸0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟹
0𝟻. 𝚂𝟸𝟾 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟽
0𝟼. 𝚂𝟹𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟺
0𝟽. 𝚂𝟺𝟽 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟿 ⭐
0𝟾. 𝚂𝟷0 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
0𝟿. 𝚂𝟹𝟺 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
𝟷0. 𝚂𝟹𝟹 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿0
1/
New Era seasons are highlighted with a ⭐.
0𝟷. 𝚂𝟹𝟷 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟺𝟸
0𝟸. 𝚂𝟺0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟹𝟺
0𝟹. 𝚂0𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟼
0𝟺. 𝚂𝟸0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟹
0𝟻. 𝚂𝟸𝟾 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟽
0𝟼. 𝚂𝟹𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟺
0𝟽. 𝚂𝟺𝟽 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟿 ⭐
0𝟾. 𝚂𝟷0 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
0𝟿. 𝚂𝟹𝟺 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
𝟷0. 𝚂𝟹𝟹 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿0
1/
December 19, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Where does #Survivor49 rank according to IMDb ratings? Err, not high.
New Era seasons are highlighted with a ⭐.
0𝟷. 𝚂𝟹𝟷 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟺𝟸
0𝟸. 𝚂𝟺0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟹𝟺
0𝟹. 𝚂0𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟼
0𝟺. 𝚂𝟸0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟹
0𝟻. 𝚂𝟸𝟾 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟽
0𝟼. 𝚂𝟹𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟺
0𝟽. 𝚂𝟺𝟽 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟿 ⭐
0𝟾. 𝚂𝟷0 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
0𝟿. 𝚂𝟹𝟺 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
𝟷0. 𝚂𝟹𝟹 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿0
1/
New Era seasons are highlighted with a ⭐.
0𝟷. 𝚂𝟹𝟷 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟺𝟸
0𝟸. 𝚂𝟺0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟹𝟺
0𝟹. 𝚂0𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟼
0𝟺. 𝚂𝟸0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟹
0𝟻. 𝚂𝟸𝟾 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟽
0𝟼. 𝚂𝟹𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟺
0𝟽. 𝚂𝟺𝟽 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟿 ⭐
0𝟾. 𝚂𝟷0 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
0𝟿. 𝚂𝟹𝟺 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽
𝟷0. 𝚂𝟹𝟹 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿0
1/
#Survivor49 final jury votes
What's interesting about this season is 6/8 jurors didn't vote for the person they voted with the most. Typically, we expect 2-3. Most of them away from Sage to Savannah or Sophi. It's a credit to Savannah's game. I'm glad Sage still got Jawan's vote though.
What's interesting about this season is 6/8 jurors didn't vote for the person they voted with the most. Typically, we expect 2-3. Most of them away from Sage to Savannah or Sophi. It's a credit to Savannah's game. I'm glad Sage still got Jawan's vote though.
December 19, 2025 at 4:23 AM
#Survivor49 final jury votes
What's interesting about this season is 6/8 jurors didn't vote for the person they voted with the most. Typically, we expect 2-3. Most of them away from Sage to Savannah or Sophi. It's a credit to Savannah's game. I'm glad Sage still got Jawan's vote though.
What's interesting about this season is 6/8 jurors didn't vote for the person they voted with the most. Typically, we expect 2-3. Most of them away from Sage to Savannah or Sophi. It's a credit to Savannah's game. I'm glad Sage still got Jawan's vote though.
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has the 2nd highest CPH for a winner in the New Era!
1. Yam Yam 7.2
2. Savannah 5.4 👈
3. Rachel 5.3
4. Kyle 5.2
5. Kenzie 4.7
6. Dee 4.5
7. Gabler 3.8
8. Maryanne 3.8
9. Erika 3.4
Savannah has the 2nd highest CPH for a winner in the New Era!
1. Yam Yam 7.2
2. Savannah 5.4 👈
3. Rachel 5.3
4. Kyle 5.2
5. Kenzie 4.7
6. Dee 4.5
7. Gabler 3.8
8. Maryanne 3.8
9. Erika 3.4
December 19, 2025 at 3:53 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has the 2nd highest CPH for a winner in the New Era!
1. Yam Yam 7.2
2. Savannah 5.4 👈
3. Rachel 5.3
4. Kyle 5.2
5. Kenzie 4.7
6. Dee 4.5
7. Gabler 3.8
8. Maryanne 3.8
9. Erika 3.4
Savannah has the 2nd highest CPH for a winner in the New Era!
1. Yam Yam 7.2
2. Savannah 5.4 👈
3. Rachel 5.3
4. Kyle 5.2
5. Kenzie 4.7
6. Dee 4.5
7. Gabler 3.8
8. Maryanne 3.8
9. Erika 3.4
Last charts before the finale. The estimated probability of winning at the final 5 and the final 3.
Read this as:
• Savannah is the overall favourite
• Savannah has a better chance than Sage of making the FTC
• If Sage does make the FTC, she has the edge
#Survivor
* based on the data only
Read this as:
• Savannah is the overall favourite
• Savannah has a better chance than Sage of making the FTC
• If Sage does make the FTC, she has the edge
#Survivor
* based on the data only
December 16, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Last charts before the finale. The estimated probability of winning at the final 5 and the final 3.
Read this as:
• Savannah is the overall favourite
• Savannah has a better chance than Sage of making the FTC
• If Sage does make the FTC, she has the edge
#Survivor
* based on the data only
Read this as:
• Savannah is the overall favourite
• Savannah has a better chance than Sage of making the FTC
• If Sage does make the FTC, she has the edge
#Survivor
* based on the data only
Yes, Savannah is very good at endurance based challenges. But all New Era seasons have had a puzzle in the final 5 immunity challenge. Levels the playing field a little.
So, if Savannah doesn't win, who does, and what happens at tribal council?
#Survivor
So, if Savannah doesn't win, who does, and what happens at tribal council?
#Survivor
December 13, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Yes, Savannah is very good at endurance based challenges. But all New Era seasons have had a puzzle in the final 5 immunity challenge. Levels the playing field a little.
So, if Savannah doesn't win, who does, and what happens at tribal council?
#Survivor
So, if Savannah doesn't win, who does, and what happens at tribal council?
#Survivor
𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has now won 4 individual challenges:
- Only 8 women have won 4 or more ICs. Kelly (S1), Kim (S24), Chrissy (S35) have won 5.
- However, 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has won 3 endurance challenges, matching the women's record with Parv (S20) and Kim (S24)
#Survivor #Survivor49
- Only 8 women have won 4 or more ICs. Kelly (S1), Kim (S24), Chrissy (S35) have won 5.
- However, 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has won 3 endurance challenges, matching the women's record with Parv (S20) and Kim (S24)
#Survivor #Survivor49
December 12, 2025 at 11:18 AM
𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has now won 4 individual challenges:
- Only 8 women have won 4 or more ICs. Kelly (S1), Kim (S24), Chrissy (S35) have won 5.
- However, 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has won 3 endurance challenges, matching the women's record with Parv (S20) and Kim (S24)
#Survivor #Survivor49
- Only 8 women have won 4 or more ICs. Kelly (S1), Kim (S24), Chrissy (S35) have won 5.
- However, 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has won 3 endurance challenges, matching the women's record with Parv (S20) and Kim (S24)
#Survivor #Survivor49
#Survivor49 vote network
Final vote network for this season. Sophi and Rizo have voted with each other 7 times, which would have included Savannah if her vote wasn't blocked. This is the most out of any alliance in the new era at the final 5.
Final vote network for this season. Sophi and Rizo have voted with each other 7 times, which would have included Savannah if her vote wasn't blocked. This is the most out of any alliance in the new era at the final 5.
December 12, 2025 at 10:39 AM
#Survivor49 vote network
Final vote network for this season. Sophi and Rizo have voted with each other 7 times, which would have included Savannah if her vote wasn't blocked. This is the most out of any alliance in the new era at the final 5.
Final vote network for this season. Sophi and Rizo have voted with each other 7 times, which would have included Savannah if her vote wasn't blocked. This is the most out of any alliance in the new era at the final 5.
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
No one is going to take Savannah's top spot, but worth noting the steady decline in the difference between observed and expected.
#Survivor
No one is going to take Savannah's top spot, but worth noting the steady decline in the difference between observed and expected.
#Survivor
December 11, 2025 at 10:53 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
No one is going to take Savannah's top spot, but worth noting the steady decline in the difference between observed and expected.
#Survivor
No one is going to take Savannah's top spot, but worth noting the steady decline in the difference between observed and expected.
#Survivor
#Survivor49 votes with the jury
While it was a surprising move, 𝗥𝗶𝘇𝗼 and 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 were blindsided, and 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 owned the move. She also stacked the jury in her favour. Not to mention Sophi fumbling the KIP.
Out of the 10 possible jury configurations, 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 wins 5. This could work out for her.
1/
While it was a surprising move, 𝗥𝗶𝘇𝗼 and 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 were blindsided, and 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 owned the move. She also stacked the jury in her favour. Not to mention Sophi fumbling the KIP.
Out of the 10 possible jury configurations, 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 wins 5. This could work out for her.
1/
December 11, 2025 at 10:26 PM
#Survivor49 votes with the jury
While it was a surprising move, 𝗥𝗶𝘇𝗼 and 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 were blindsided, and 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 owned the move. She also stacked the jury in her favour. Not to mention Sophi fumbling the KIP.
Out of the 10 possible jury configurations, 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 wins 5. This could work out for her.
1/
While it was a surprising move, 𝗥𝗶𝘇𝗼 and 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 were blindsided, and 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 owned the move. She also stacked the jury in her favour. Not to mention Sophi fumbling the KIP.
Out of the 10 possible jury configurations, 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 wins 5. This could work out for her.
1/
As I understand it, there have only been 4 tribal councils where there have been 3 or more advantages played. Maybe we'll see the 5th tonight.
(I'm counting the 3 Amulet play in 47 as 1)
#Survivor
(I'm counting the 3 Amulet play in 47 as 1)
#Survivor
December 10, 2025 at 7:44 PM
As I understand it, there have only been 4 tribal councils where there have been 3 or more advantages played. Maybe we'll see the 5th tonight.
(I'm counting the 3 Amulet play in 47 as 1)
#Survivor
(I'm counting the 3 Amulet play in 47 as 1)
#Survivor
The way I read this is, if Steven and Kristina are on the jury, Sage will get their votes.
Savannah, Rizo, and Sohpi shouldn't be trying to sit next to each other at the end, but rather get their vote at the FTC.
#Survivor49
Savannah, Rizo, and Sohpi shouldn't be trying to sit next to each other at the end, but rather get their vote at the FTC.
#Survivor49
December 5, 2025 at 10:09 AM
The way I read this is, if Steven and Kristina are on the jury, Sage will get their votes.
Savannah, Rizo, and Sohpi shouldn't be trying to sit next to each other at the end, but rather get their vote at the FTC.
#Survivor49
Savannah, Rizo, and Sohpi shouldn't be trying to sit next to each other at the end, but rather get their vote at the FTC.
#Survivor49
#Survivor confessionals per hour
Despite having a few quieter episodes, Savannah still has the largest difference (+1.5), followed by Steven (+0.7) and Sage (+0.7).
Steven picked up heaps due to going on the journey and winning the advantage.
Despite having a few quieter episodes, Savannah still has the largest difference (+1.5), followed by Steven (+0.7) and Sage (+0.7).
Steven picked up heaps due to going on the journey and winning the advantage.
December 5, 2025 at 9:56 AM
#Survivor confessionals per hour
Despite having a few quieter episodes, Savannah still has the largest difference (+1.5), followed by Steven (+0.7) and Sage (+0.7).
Steven picked up heaps due to going on the journey and winning the advantage.
Despite having a few quieter episodes, Savannah still has the largest difference (+1.5), followed by Steven (+0.7) and Sage (+0.7).
Steven picked up heaps due to going on the journey and winning the advantage.
This is how I concentrate 🤘
At the start of the year I wouldn't have thought Cryptopsy would be my most listened to band, but there's something I love about that album.
Although, my number 1 song has to be Rivers of Nihil - House of light. So good.
#YouTube #heavymetal
At the start of the year I wouldn't have thought Cryptopsy would be my most listened to band, but there's something I love about that album.
Although, my number 1 song has to be Rivers of Nihil - House of light. So good.
#YouTube #heavymetal
December 5, 2025 at 8:59 AM
This is how I concentrate 🤘
At the start of the year I wouldn't have thought Cryptopsy would be my most listened to band, but there's something I love about that album.
Although, my number 1 song has to be Rivers of Nihil - House of light. So good.
#YouTube #heavymetal
At the start of the year I wouldn't have thought Cryptopsy would be my most listened to band, but there's something I love about that album.
Although, my number 1 song has to be Rivers of Nihil - House of light. So good.
#YouTube #heavymetal
#Survivor49 votes with the Jury
At this point, 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 is in the most favourable position with the Jury with the highest number of expected votes from the jury (white stars, according to the numbers).
If she gets to the FTC with Rizo and Savannah, I think 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 wins.
#Survivor
At this point, 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 is in the most favourable position with the Jury with the highest number of expected votes from the jury (white stars, according to the numbers).
If she gets to the FTC with Rizo and Savannah, I think 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 wins.
#Survivor
December 4, 2025 at 10:32 PM
#Survivor49 votes with the Jury
At this point, 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 is in the most favourable position with the Jury with the highest number of expected votes from the jury (white stars, according to the numbers).
If she gets to the FTC with Rizo and Savannah, I think 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 wins.
#Survivor
At this point, 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 is in the most favourable position with the Jury with the highest number of expected votes from the jury (white stars, according to the numbers).
If she gets to the FTC with Rizo and Savannah, I think 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 wins.
#Survivor
Tree is up. Countdown begins 🎄
November 30, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Tree is up. Countdown begins 🎄
I also have a very simple model to predict how many jury votes the finalist will receive based on votes with and votes for the juror. It has been correct for 6 out of 8 New Era seasons.
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
November 30, 2025 at 9:04 AM
I also have a very simple model to predict how many jury votes the finalist will receive based on votes with and votes for the juror. It has been correct for 6 out of 8 New Era seasons.
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
Is it possible Rizo made a fake idol and intended to play it like it was his real one, act surprised when it's called out as fake to try to fool people into thinking he actually doesn't have a real idol? If so, he did a terrible job of it! #survivor
November 28, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Is it possible Rizo made a fake idol and intended to play it like it was his real one, act surprised when it's called out as fake to try to fool people into thinking he actually doesn't have a real idol? If so, he did a terrible job of it! #survivor
#Survivor49 network
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
November 27, 2025 at 7:07 PM
#Survivor49 network
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning
November 27, 2025 at 11:33 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning