Dan Oehm
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danoehm.bsky.social
Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃‍♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego

Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
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November 8, 2025 at 7:04 AM
True. One option is to convince Sophi to jump ship, use her KIP on Rizo, and vote Rizo or Savannah out. That would be fun to watch!
November 7, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Ah interesting. Well, he made the right choice.
November 7, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Yeah it's not what I expected! I'll have to rewatch to see if there was more to it.
November 6, 2025 at 9:27 PM
13 seasons (the green lines) had a winner with a 100% successful boot record.

* There's a chance I haven't captured all the split votes which should count has being on the right side of the vote.
November 1, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Keen to get your thoughts on a secret alliance between Sophi and Rizo. Perhaps they agree for Sophi to steal Rizos idol with her KIP and cause some controlled chaos at the next tribal. Can they spook others into using their sitd, vote incorrectly, or something else?
October 30, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Counts
October 30, 2025 at 10:49 AM
In 48 seasons, a player who was first to be on the wrong side of the vote has won only 3 times. Assuming equal chance, we would expect 13-14 players.

Those 3 players are:
- Chris S9
- Danni S11
- Bob S17

It hasn't happened in 31 seasons. Kinda cool.

gradientdescending.com/how-importan...
How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge? - Dan Oehm | Gradient Descending
Survivor players know the importance of being on the right side of the vote at the first tribal after merge. But how important is it?
gradientdescending.com
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
For example, at the final 8, assuming equal chance, a player has a 1-in-8 (12.5%) chance of winning, their odds drop to about 3% after voting incorrectly.
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Being the first player on the “wrong side” of a post-merge vote (but still in the game) significantly decreases your probability of winning the game.

A player’s chances of winning are 75% lower after being on the wrong side of the vote.
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Yep, that's me! Thank you 🙏, it's always great to hear from people who use it 🙂
October 27, 2025 at 6:58 AM