Naftali Weinberger
@dagophile.bsky.social
Interested in all things causal modeling. Ongoing projects on causal analyses of discrimination and on causation in dynamical systems.
Pinned
Naftali Weinberger
@dagophile.bsky.social
· Oct 22
Selected papers
Timescale: tinyurl.com/2rpj7874
DCMs: tinyurl.com/2s3p2wuh
Discrimination: tinyurl.com/yscv658e
Mediation: tinyurl.com/3hz3rca8
Faithfulness: tinyurl.com/3n3de87m
Causation and Time: tinyurl.com/58cfcw2r
Psychometrics: tinyurl.com/ynjaf5xv
Timescale: tinyurl.com/2rpj7874
DCMs: tinyurl.com/2s3p2wuh
Discrimination: tinyurl.com/yscv658e
Mediation: tinyurl.com/3hz3rca8
Faithfulness: tinyurl.com/3n3de87m
Causation and Time: tinyurl.com/58cfcw2r
Psychometrics: tinyurl.com/ynjaf5xv
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Our special issue on Evolutionary Functions of Consciousness, coedited with Tecumseh Fitch and Adina Roskies, now online royalsocietypublishing.org/toc/rstb/202...
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences: Vol 380, No 1939
royalsocietypublishing.org
November 13, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Our special issue on Evolutionary Functions of Consciousness, coedited with Tecumseh Fitch and Adina Roskies, now online royalsocietypublishing.org/toc/rstb/202...
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
This week's episode is on the Manipulation Theorem, which is not well-known in the broader causal community, but has hugely influenced philosophers. I cover hard vs soft interventions, why causation doesn't require human agents, and whether causation requires open systems.
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
E9: Using Causal Graphs to Change the World
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
November 14, 2025 at 5:57 PM
This week's episode is on the Manipulation Theorem, which is not well-known in the broader causal community, but has hugely influenced philosophers. I cover hard vs soft interventions, why causation doesn't require human agents, and whether causation requires open systems.
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
"Are we the baddies?"
November 9, 2025 at 12:03 AM
"Are we the baddies?"
I was honored to be asked to comment on David's talk. Many of you know him from his philosophy of physics work, though my interaction goes back to his teaching the 1st course I took in philosophy of science.
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
November 8, 2025 at 5:17 PM
I was honored to be asked to comment on David's talk. Many of you know him from his philosophy of physics work, though my interaction goes back to his teaching the 1st course I took in philosophy of science.
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Continuing our drive to rate the classics, here are two maximally LA-coded suburban DAGs from Judea Pearl. There's thirsty lawns and sprinklers, burglars and earthquakes, and neighbors who call you if your alarm goes off.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
November 8, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Continuing our drive to rate the classics, here are two maximally LA-coded suburban DAGs from Judea Pearl. There's thirsty lawns and sprinklers, burglars and earthquakes, and neighbors who call you if your alarm goes off.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Kids don't need us to be their buddies. They need us to be what our teachers were—firm, fair, and just a little out of touch. Someone's got to show them how to age with style.
Last week I asked my students to create some memes and I realized with a certain degree of horror that the classic meme templates I suggested meant nothing to them.
I have become that Principal Skinner “am I out of touch?” meme. Which they also wouldn’t recognize.
I have become that Principal Skinner “am I out of touch?” meme. Which they also wouldn’t recognize.
I made a “how do you do, fellow kids?” joke to someone in their mid 20s who, it turns out, was too young to have heard of that meme.
So “how do you do, fellow kids?” is now an example of “how do you do, fellow kids?”
So “how do you do, fellow kids?” is now an example of “how do you do, fellow kids?”
November 8, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Kids don't need us to be their buddies. They need us to be what our teachers were—firm, fair, and just a little out of touch. Someone's got to show them how to age with style.
I'm revising a paper, and I still haven't managed to force myself to remove a snarky comment that doesn't seem uber-professional, but which best captures the reaction I'm trying to pre-empt. What do y'all think?
November 7, 2025 at 6:23 PM
I'm revising a paper, and I still haven't managed to force myself to remove a snarky comment that doesn't seem uber-professional, but which best captures the reaction I'm trying to pre-empt. What do y'all think?
We swear that Bielefeld exists! We even had a speaker coming from there. And his train was delayed. In Bielefeld! Which totally exists!
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 PM
We swear that Bielefeld exists! We even had a speaker coming from there. And his train was delayed. In Bielefeld! Which totally exists!
What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
How to make sense of probabilities over causal parameters
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
November 6, 2025 at 4:25 PM
What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Next talk from the #NaturalPhilosophy Symposium is David Albert on Fundamental Laws of Physics and the Idea of Agency, with commentary by Naftali Weinberger @dagophile.bsky.social.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
November 5, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Next talk from the #NaturalPhilosophy Symposium is David Albert on Fundamental Laws of Physics and the Idea of Agency, with commentary by Naftali Weinberger @dagophile.bsky.social.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
Now the thumbnail has a very recent pop culture reference to attract the youth.
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
E8.1: Are We Living in a Simulation?
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
November 1, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Now the thumbnail has a very recent pop culture reference to attract the youth.
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
In the latest episode, I relate Bostrom's simulation argument to debates over the causal faithfulness condition. I get into interpretations of probability, why "coincidental"≠"improbable", and what it means to assign a probability to a causal parameter.
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
E8.1: Are We Living in a Simulation?
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
October 31, 2025 at 3:09 PM
In the latest episode, I relate Bostrom's simulation argument to debates over the causal faithfulness condition. I get into interpretations of probability, why "coincidental"≠"improbable", and what it means to assign a probability to a causal parameter.
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU
"At 76.4 percent, it's the lowest turnout for a parliamentary election since 2012"
October 29, 2025 at 10:47 PM
"At 76.4 percent, it's the lowest turnout for a parliamentary election since 2012"
I can confirm the German accent -- no deep fakes here. Perfect color-matching would violate the positivity assumption, which makes me nervous...
The recording is now available so that you can confirm that I indeed have a German accent and color-match my outfits with my Zoom background.
youtu.be/YL0co26ng-g?...
youtu.be/YL0co26ng-g?...
October 21, 2025 at 6:58 PM
I can confirm the German accent -- no deep fakes here. Perfect color-matching would violate the positivity assumption, which makes me nervous...
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Today, three adorable missing data DAGs. O* is missing when Rₒ masks it and O otherwise. Now, can we d-separate Rₒ and O?
12/10 Ten for the graphs, plus two for casually flipping "causal inference is a missing data problem"
From Mohan & Pearl (2021) "Graphical Models for Processing Missing Data"
12/10 Ten for the graphs, plus two for casually flipping "causal inference is a missing data problem"
From Mohan & Pearl (2021) "Graphical Models for Processing Missing Data"
October 19, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Today, three adorable missing data DAGs. O* is missing when Rₒ masks it and O otherwise. Now, can we d-separate Rₒ and O?
12/10 Ten for the graphs, plus two for casually flipping "causal inference is a missing data problem"
From Mohan & Pearl (2021) "Graphical Models for Processing Missing Data"
12/10 Ten for the graphs, plus two for casually flipping "causal inference is a missing data problem"
From Mohan & Pearl (2021) "Graphical Models for Processing Missing Data"
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Hello Bluesky!
We rate DAGs. Some are great. Some are... not so great. But we rate them all.
Let's start with a famous powerpoint hairball a.k.a. "the Afghanisdag", presented to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal around 2010. His own rating?
1/10 "When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"
We rate DAGs. Some are great. Some are... not so great. But we rate them all.
Let's start with a famous powerpoint hairball a.k.a. "the Afghanisdag", presented to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal around 2010. His own rating?
1/10 "When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"
October 17, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Hello Bluesky!
We rate DAGs. Some are great. Some are... not so great. But we rate them all.
Let's start with a famous powerpoint hairball a.k.a. "the Afghanisdag", presented to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal around 2010. His own rating?
1/10 "When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"
We rate DAGs. Some are great. Some are... not so great. But we rate them all.
Let's start with a famous powerpoint hairball a.k.a. "the Afghanisdag", presented to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal around 2010. His own rating?
1/10 "When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"
I've now posted an episode on the causal faithfulness condition. Faithfulness says much more than just that causal paths don't cancel, and raises foundational questions about causation, probability, and underdetermination.
youtu.be/k8p0OS-8u2Q
youtu.be/k8p0OS-8u2Q
October 17, 2025 at 2:26 PM
I've now posted an episode on the causal faithfulness condition. Faithfulness says much more than just that causal paths don't cancel, and raises foundational questions about causation, probability, and underdetermination.
youtu.be/k8p0OS-8u2Q
youtu.be/k8p0OS-8u2Q
Does Causation Imply Correlation? (Preview)
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
October 8, 2025 at 8:54 PM
E7: The One Causal Principle You Can't Do Without
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
September 30, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Very few directors could pull off having these 45 second in the middle of a movie in a way that's both unrelated to any other plot point, but also integrated into its whole world in a way that adds to it.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW-B...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW-B...
Broadcast News (1987) - News theme scene
YouTube video by BrokerMackler
www.youtube.com
September 26, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Very few directors could pull off having these 45 second in the middle of a movie in a way that's both unrelated to any other plot point, but also integrated into its whole world in a way that adds to it.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW-B...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW-B...
Aydin Mohsehi @center4philsci.bsky.social. "A Bayesian Reduction of Causation in Causal Models".
The part about reduction was less original than I anticipated, but I really liked the link to exchangeability and how it links causation to Bayesian probabilities.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_PT...
The part about reduction was less original than I anticipated, but I really liked the link to exchangeability and how it links causation to Bayesian probabilities.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_PT...
Lunchtime Talk - Aydin Mohseni 9/19/25
YouTube video by Center for Philosophy of Science
www.youtube.com
September 19, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Aydin Mohsehi @center4philsci.bsky.social. "A Bayesian Reduction of Causation in Causal Models".
The part about reduction was less original than I anticipated, but I really liked the link to exchangeability and how it links causation to Bayesian probabilities.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_PT...
The part about reduction was less original than I anticipated, but I really liked the link to exchangeability and how it links causation to Bayesian probabilities.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_PT...
What was the word count of the longest referee report you've ever written?
September 19, 2025 at 2:08 PM
What was the word count of the longest referee report you've ever written?
Wait. Is The Martian just Saving Private Ryan in space? How many people does it take to save Matt Damon?
September 12, 2025 at 2:39 AM
Wait. Is The Martian just Saving Private Ryan in space? How many people does it take to save Matt Damon?
I just posted a video on the Front-Door criterion, which enables you to identify an effect using mechanisms. This video is more technical than the others, but really illustrates how causal graphs create a bridge between causes and probabilities.
youtu.be/xRFOj71FPU0
youtu.be/xRFOj71FPU0
E6: Making Mechanisms Matter
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
August 30, 2025 at 3:01 PM
I just posted a video on the Front-Door criterion, which enables you to identify an effect using mechanisms. This video is more technical than the others, but really illustrates how causal graphs create a bridge between causes and probabilities.
youtu.be/xRFOj71FPU0
youtu.be/xRFOj71FPU0
Very exciting. "Frugality" is a term I coined because "sparsest Markov permutation" was a mouthful, and it I wanted to explicitly contrast it with "Faithfulness". But up to now it's been too computationally intensive to implement at scale.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Discovering causal structures in corrupted data: frugality in anchored Gaussian DAG models
This study focuses on the recovery of anchored Gaussian directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models to address the challenge of discovering causal or dire…
www.sciencedirect.com
August 29, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Very exciting. "Frugality" is a term I coined because "sparsest Markov permutation" was a mouthful, and it I wanted to explicitly contrast it with "Faithfulness". But up to now it's been too computationally intensive to implement at scale.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...