Cody Fenwick
@codytfenwick.bsky.social
Research analyst for 80,000 Hours
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
Those estimates match up well with the separate, independent estimates of @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social at @cgdev.org
They estimate closer to three million per year —>
They estimate closer to three million per year —>
How Many Lives Does US Foreign Aid Save?
We present some estimates for lives saved by US assistance worldwide, with illustrative estimates by recipient country. Our core estimates are for deaths prevented from HIV/AIDS, vaccine-preventable i...
www.cgdev.org
October 8, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Those estimates match up well with the separate, independent estimates of @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social at @cgdev.org
They estimate closer to three million per year —>
They estimate closer to three million per year —>
This seems impossible to adhere to in practice. Countless claims of educational value could undermine someone’s religious beliefs.
June 28, 2025 at 9:24 AM
This seems impossible to adhere to in practice. Countless claims of educational value could undermine someone’s religious beliefs.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
June 27, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
Paper is finally up and open access (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...), it's a sequel to an earlier paper where we'd argued that there's not good evidence that pre-publication peer review is a net benefit (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/...). So in this one we suggest an alternative.
June 14, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Paper is finally up and open access (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...), it's a sequel to an earlier paper where we'd argued that there's not good evidence that pre-publication peer review is a net benefit (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/...). So in this one we suggest an alternative.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
Hume also encountered a perennial type of guy in the humanities and also found them annoying.
May 31, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Hume also encountered a perennial type of guy in the humanities and also found them annoying.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
Now that I've acquired a much bigger audience via posting about AI, my genius move is to start posting about the most alienating thing I believe andymasley.substack.com/p/animal-suf...
Animal suffering isn't pretend
We evolved to think it is
andymasley.substack.com
May 5, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Now that I've acquired a much bigger audience via posting about AI, my genius move is to start posting about the most alienating thing I believe andymasley.substack.com/p/animal-suf...
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
My interview with @iandunt.bsky.social on how the UK government got to be so bad.
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
Why Governments Can’t Get Anything Done and How We Can Fix It | Ian Dunt
YouTube video by 80,000 Hours
www.youtube.com
May 2, 2025 at 4:25 PM
My interview with @iandunt.bsky.social on how the UK government got to be so bad.
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
remember, “chatgpt is destroyeing the environment” is factually wrong and serves as a narrow dopamine/attention-maxed distraction from actual climate impact
April 29, 2025 at 7:05 PM
remember, “chatgpt is destroyeing the environment” is factually wrong and serves as a narrow dopamine/attention-maxed distraction from actual climate impact
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
I'm glad somebody out there is brave enough to push back against the "personal ChatGPT usage is terrible for the environment" message andymasley.substack.com/p/a-cheat-sh...
A cheat sheet for why using ChatGPT is not bad for the environment
Arm yourself with knowledge
andymasley.substack.com
April 29, 2025 at 3:30 PM
I'm glad somebody out there is brave enough to push back against the "personal ChatGPT usage is terrible for the environment" message andymasley.substack.com/p/a-cheat-sh...
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
Incidentally, this is why I worry about the dominant position of AI critics on this site that "AI doesn't work and is just a scam"
It absolutely does work, in good ways (controlled studies on education, medicine) and in ways that create risks & problems. Pretending AI isn't real is a big mistake.
It absolutely does work, in good ways (controlled studies on education, medicine) and in ways that create risks & problems. Pretending AI isn't real is a big mistake.
👀Today’s AIs are already hyper persuasive.
A controversial study where LLMs tried to persuade users on Reddit found that: “Notably, all our treatments surpass human performance substantially, achieving persuasive rates between three and six times higher than the human baseline.”
A controversial study where LLMs tried to persuade users on Reddit found that: “Notably, all our treatments surpass human performance substantially, achieving persuasive rates between three and six times higher than the human baseline.”
April 29, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Incidentally, this is why I worry about the dominant position of AI critics on this site that "AI doesn't work and is just a scam"
It absolutely does work, in good ways (controlled studies on education, medicine) and in ways that create risks & problems. Pretending AI isn't real is a big mistake.
It absolutely does work, in good ways (controlled studies on education, medicine) and in ways that create risks & problems. Pretending AI isn't real is a big mistake.
I wouldn’t say there aren’t benefits to echo chambers, but the cost to your ability to know true things is really high, even if the people involved have good political values.
Dare I say that having an echo chamber that makes people more progressive is actually a good thing. Dare I say it
April 28, 2025 at 11:08 PM
I wouldn’t say there aren’t benefits to echo chambers, but the cost to your ability to know true things is really high, even if the people involved have good political values.
It’s wild to me how much of an own goal this is. I’ve seen academic publishers miss such obvious opportunities to promote books for a wide audience and sell them at reasonable prices.
The academic monograph is dying because (a) publishers don't market them or price them affordably; (b) non-peer-reviewed trade books (because marketed and affordable) are more highly cited and academically influential.
April 28, 2025 at 7:14 PM
It’s wild to me how much of an own goal this is. I’ve seen academic publishers miss such obvious opportunities to promote books for a wide audience and sell them at reasonable prices.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
The academic monograph is dying because (a) publishers don't market them or price them affordably; (b) non-peer-reviewed trade books (because marketed and affordable) are more highly cited and academically influential.
April 28, 2025 at 6:48 AM
The academic monograph is dying because (a) publishers don't market them or price them affordably; (b) non-peer-reviewed trade books (because marketed and affordable) are more highly cited and academically influential.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
I wrote a cheat sheet version of my Using ChatGPT is not bad for the environment post. It's paired down and more focused on simple responses to common objections, without a long intro or my background environmental philosophy. andymasley.substack.com/p/a-cheat-sh...
A cheat sheet for conversations about ChatGPT and the environment
Arm yourself with knowledge
andymasley.substack.com
April 28, 2025 at 3:32 AM
I wrote a cheat sheet version of my Using ChatGPT is not bad for the environment post. It's paired down and more focused on simple responses to common objections, without a long intro or my background environmental philosophy. andymasley.substack.com/p/a-cheat-sh...
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
We spent an absurd amount of time in 2022-24 denying this gap b/w consumer sentiment & behavior existed & inventing complex explanations like “felt inflation,” when the answers were right there. It was a sobering lesson in many things, including the politics of Narratives™️
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Extremely cool FEDS Note that links consumer sentiment data to actually spending at the respondent level and shows that the disconnect between sentiment and spending post-COVID was extremely unique and driven by inflation perception not real incomes.
Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
April 26, 2025 at 2:02 PM
We spent an absurd amount of time in 2022-24 denying this gap b/w consumer sentiment & behavior existed & inventing complex explanations like “felt inflation,” when the answers were right there. It was a sobering lesson in many things, including the politics of Narratives™️
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Reality check: using ChatGPT and other LLMs is not a particularly bad use of time for the environment compared to other things you might do.
April 26, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Reality check: using ChatGPT and other LLMs is not a particularly bad use of time for the environment compared to other things you might do.
Lots of people who do have deep knowledge of AI consider these to be open questions. Dario Amodei, for one — and many others.
It’s hubris to assume the answers are obvious.
It’s hubris to assume the answers are obvious.
‘I asked the people who have actual knowledge of the thing, but tbh I wasn’t really listening so instead I’m going to talk out of my ass’
NYT Editor: *hits giant red PUBLISH button*
NYT Editor: *hits giant red PUBLISH button*
“Can ChatGPT experience joy or suffering? Does Gemini deserve human rights?” our tech columnist asks. “Many A.I. experts I know would say no, not yet, not even close. But I was intrigued.”
April 25, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Lots of people who do have deep knowledge of AI consider these to be open questions. Dario Amodei, for one — and many others.
It’s hubris to assume the answers are obvious.
It’s hubris to assume the answers are obvious.
I don’t understand what people are mad about here
April 23, 2025 at 5:52 AM
I don’t understand what people are mad about here
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
My theory: the relative decline in power of a certain kinda woke humanities set (post-2020) happened in some part because when a crisis came and America was relatively receptive they just had no workable policies. "Abolish the police" just weren't it, but it was the only slogan that broke through...
I do think that is true, their cultural influence is on the decline. I kinda feel they had the opposite of a Chicago-School moment. Their crisis came and they had no workable ideas to implement therein, and so that was that really.
April 20, 2025 at 6:43 AM
My theory: the relative decline in power of a certain kinda woke humanities set (post-2020) happened in some part because when a crisis came and America was relatively receptive they just had no workable policies. "Abolish the police" just weren't it, but it was the only slogan that broke through...
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
Thinking about the Nucleic Acid Observatory, AI will likely speed up some aspects of the creation of a detection system more than others. To the extent that we expect rapid advances in AI we should prioritize the work that we expect to bottleneck our future AI-accelerated work.
AI Advances and Detection Strategy
data.securebio.org
April 19, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Thinking about the Nucleic Acid Observatory, AI will likely speed up some aspects of the creation of a detection system more than others. To the extent that we expect rapid advances in AI we should prioritize the work that we expect to bottleneck our future AI-accelerated work.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
This is true. I find the dimethyl sulfide report intriguing, but it’s a big universe out there with a lot of chemistry going on in it. We just don’t know enough to say.
If you are looking for life ONLY with chemical signatures, you need to have an incredible understanding of the abiotic background. An understanding that we do not even have for deep time on Earth even with all of the access and laboratory tools we current have.
April 17, 2025 at 12:40 PM
This is true. I find the dimethyl sulfide report intriguing, but it’s a big universe out there with a lot of chemistry going on in it. We just don’t know enough to say.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
New preprint finding that eliminating US global health funding over the next fifteen years would cause:
- 15.2m deaths from AIDS
- 2.2m deaths from TB
- 7.9 additional child deaths
- 15.2m deaths from AIDS
- 2.2m deaths from TB
- 7.9 additional child deaths
April 17, 2025 at 8:32 PM
New preprint finding that eliminating US global health funding over the next fifteen years would cause:
- 15.2m deaths from AIDS
- 2.2m deaths from TB
- 7.9 additional child deaths
- 15.2m deaths from AIDS
- 2.2m deaths from TB
- 7.9 additional child deaths
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
It's genuinely hard to express to sort of normal not politically plugged in non-lawyers *how* lawless the Trump administration is, and I think that's some part of the problem.
You sound like you're hyperventilating, but it's just a flat description of what is going on.
You sound like you're hyperventilating, but it's just a flat description of what is going on.
April 15, 2025 at 4:41 PM
It's genuinely hard to express to sort of normal not politically plugged in non-lawyers *how* lawless the Trump administration is, and I think that's some part of the problem.
You sound like you're hyperventilating, but it's just a flat description of what is going on.
You sound like you're hyperventilating, but it's just a flat description of what is going on.
I think this is basically right. But many arguments against such ontological entities are able to meet their burden of proof.
Holy shit:
"If entities of a certain kind belong to folk ontology [ the ontological presuppositions of our common sense conceptual scheme], then there is a prima facie presumption in favor of their reality. . . .[T]hose who deny their existence assume the burden of proof."
WHAT
"If entities of a certain kind belong to folk ontology [ the ontological presuppositions of our common sense conceptual scheme], then there is a prima facie presumption in favor of their reality. . . .[T]hose who deny their existence assume the burden of proof."
WHAT
So, I'm about 1/3 into a very long book on philosophy of substance dualism, and there are a lot of arguments, but... they really seem to boil down to two concepts:
1) It really SEEMS like there's an immaterial whole ME.
2) It's really hard to imagine matter giving rise to consciousness
1) It really SEEMS like there's an immaterial whole ME.
2) It's really hard to imagine matter giving rise to consciousness
April 13, 2025 at 6:12 AM
I think this is basically right. But many arguments against such ontological entities are able to meet their burden of proof.
Reposted by Cody Fenwick
There has been a lack of near-term "hard science fiction" on might happen if supersmart AI is actually possible soon
This is just such a story written by some long-time key thinkers in AI. It is, no doubt, very wrong on most things, but reading it (& the footnotes) can still be useful. ai-2027.com
This is just such a story written by some long-time key thinkers in AI. It is, no doubt, very wrong on most things, but reading it (& the footnotes) can still be useful. ai-2027.com
AI 2027
A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
ai-2027.com
April 3, 2025 at 5:26 PM
There has been a lack of near-term "hard science fiction" on might happen if supersmart AI is actually possible soon
This is just such a story written by some long-time key thinkers in AI. It is, no doubt, very wrong on most things, but reading it (& the footnotes) can still be useful. ai-2027.com
This is just such a story written by some long-time key thinkers in AI. It is, no doubt, very wrong on most things, but reading it (& the footnotes) can still be useful. ai-2027.com