sirens in my neighborhood, assume josh caused a heart attack
January 17, 2026 at 11:10 PM
sirens in my neighborhood, assume josh caused a heart attack
may not be representative nationwide but in onondaga county ny there share of people married with a spouse in the same party is actually decreasing with age (i have reps and cons as the same party for this purpose)
December 31, 2025 at 5:17 PM
may not be representative nationwide but in onondaga county ny there share of people married with a spouse in the same party is actually decreasing with age (i have reps and cons as the same party for this purpose)
mike lawler in a major panic
December 18, 2025 at 12:24 AM
mike lawler in a major panic
id rate it as unlikely, but it is possible eday is better than people are expecting for dem, that is the place a turnout differential would show up, with lower turnout voters
December 3, 2025 at 1:48 AM
id rate it as unlikely, but it is possible eday is better than people are expecting for dem, that is the place a turnout differential would show up, with lower turnout voters
i think nassau county has had a realignment that extends well beyond campaign strategies and tactics. these are the dem % in the first listed column in uncontested state supreme court races in the 10th district which is nassau and suffolk.
November 26, 2025 at 6:52 PM
i think nassau county has had a realignment that extends well beyond campaign strategies and tactics. these are the dem % in the first listed column in uncontested state supreme court races in the 10th district which is nassau and suffolk.
from onondaga county, time of day people voted on election day and their turnout in the 2023 election.
November 26, 2025 at 5:45 PM
from onondaga county, time of day people voted on election day and their turnout in the 2023 election.
glanced at the first line of raw data from a just completed poll. this persons responses to favorability battery:
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
November 17, 2025 at 11:57 PM
glanced at the first line of raw data from a just completed poll. this persons responses to favorability battery:
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
for most pundits the greatest injustice possible is democrats exercising power
Underrated aspect of killing the filibuster is making pundit hacks at Cook Political p-p-p-piss their pants
November 8, 2025 at 8:44 PM
for most pundits the greatest injustice possible is democrats exercising power
Republicans got lucky in upstate ny, dems left a lot of wins on the table by not running candidates.
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
November 8, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Republicans got lucky in upstate ny, dems left a lot of wins on the table by not running candidates.
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
king gizzard and the lizard wizard kinda night
November 5, 2025 at 12:39 AM
king gizzard and the lizard wizard kinda night
i cant just spend all my time eating chicken parm subs
November 4, 2025 at 1:15 AM
i cant just spend all my time eating chicken parm subs
just made a reputational bet that my models are right
November 1, 2025 at 9:04 PM
just made a reputational bet that my models are right
love the google cloud ai "correlation is causation" ads
October 29, 2025 at 12:59 AM
love the google cloud ai "correlation is causation" ads
should i get into oven fries?
October 3, 2025 at 10:39 PM
should i get into oven fries?
there may be some asymmetry to how voters view the parties in this q. i have 2022 down ballot polling in ny with a similar set of qs, and among voters who view both parties as too far in their respective directions dems lead the generic ballot 57-24
If you ask the people whether they think the Democrats or Republicans have moved too far to the left/right, roughly equal shares say yes about each party. It's simply not the case that the American people view Dems as too ideologically extreme compared to Reps www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...
September 29, 2025 at 6:04 PM
there may be some asymmetry to how voters view the parties in this q. i have 2022 down ballot polling in ny with a similar set of qs, and among voters who view both parties as too far in their respective directions dems lead the generic ballot 57-24
not a vest guy, but thanks for asking
September 23, 2025 at 3:43 AM
not a vest guy, but thanks for asking
there is a liberal pathology to always be negotiating against yourself
Let's check in with The Argument, the magazine pitched as a "group of left-leaning writers and journalists... arguing in favor of what liberalism is for, rather than just what it’s against."
Oh.
Oh.
September 16, 2025 at 11:21 PM
there is a liberal pathology to always be negotiating against yourself
am i too old to get really good at karate?
September 4, 2025 at 12:58 AM
am i too old to get really good at karate?
vance going jimmy conway?
August 31, 2025 at 8:27 PM
vance going jimmy conway?
nothing says "plan that is definitely going to work" more than outsourcing your volunteer operation to a superpac
"Centrist DSA" (my term for MainStream, a new volunteer canvassing operation created by the pro-Cuomo super PAC Fix the City) is launching tonight, per Politico.
(screenshot from Politico Playbook)
(screenshot from Politico Playbook)
August 20, 2025 at 10:40 PM
nothing says "plan that is definitely going to work" more than outsourcing your volunteer operation to a superpac
Slightly diminish a band: thankful dead
Slightly diminish a band: Pewter Zepplin
Slightly diminish a band: The Seasoning Girls
August 13, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Slightly diminish a band: thankful dead
[me doubling down]: i'd like to double down
August 12, 2025 at 1:41 AM
[me doubling down]: i'd like to double down
split ticket has done interesting work. however analyzing data to show what happened in past elections is not the same skill as using data to influence future elections. it can be especially dangerous from people who no actual experience on campaigns.
And we know the centrist consultants favored by D leadership say this b/c @elainegodfrey.bsky.social quoted one.
Swing voters say “Dems don’t fight.”
This consultant argues it’s not REALLY about fight, it’s abt something else!! That’s hooey. But the leadership likes it: it supports the status quo.
Swing voters say “Dems don’t fight.”
This consultant argues it’s not REALLY about fight, it’s abt something else!! That’s hooey. But the leadership likes it: it supports the status quo.
August 10, 2025 at 10:31 PM
split ticket has done interesting work. however analyzing data to show what happened in past elections is not the same skill as using data to influence future elections. it can be especially dangerous from people who no actual experience on campaigns.