Christopher O’Leary
@christopheroleary.bsky.social
Investment enthusiast
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
It's a bubble where the talk every week is about how it's a bubble
October 22, 2025 at 3:23 PM
It's a bubble where the talk every week is about how it's a bubble
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
How many individual stocks outperform the stock market in a given year?
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
How Many Stocks Outperform the Stock Market? - A Wealth of Common Sense
A reader asks: Could you talk about what percentage of stocks that are beating the S&P over the last 5 years also beat the S&P the 5 years before that? I’m curious what names appear in both lists, wit...
awealthofcommonsense.com
October 23, 2025 at 6:21 PM
How many individual stocks outperform the stock market in a given year?
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
The score card after Buffett announces he's stepping down this year:
5,502,284% for Berkshire vs 39,054% in the S&P 500.
I forget who pointed this out but Berkshire could fall 99% and he'd still have outperformed over his career.
5,502,284% for Berkshire vs 39,054% in the S&P 500.
I forget who pointed this out but Berkshire could fall 99% and he'd still have outperformed over his career.
May 4, 2025 at 4:10 PM
The score card after Buffett announces he's stepping down this year:
5,502,284% for Berkshire vs 39,054% in the S&P 500.
I forget who pointed this out but Berkshire could fall 99% and he'd still have outperformed over his career.
5,502,284% for Berkshire vs 39,054% in the S&P 500.
I forget who pointed this out but Berkshire could fall 99% and he'd still have outperformed over his career.
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Michael Cembalest is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. This is how he opened his latest note to investors...
March 14, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Michael Cembalest is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. This is how he opened his latest note to investors...
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
I would estimate there are 10 to 20 million Americans who are going through some version of this right now.
March 11, 2025 at 10:59 AM
I would estimate there are 10 to 20 million Americans who are going through some version of this right now.
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
In the past 16 years the S&P 500 is up more than 1000% in total or 16.3% per year
March 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
In the past 16 years the S&P 500 is up more than 1000% in total or 16.3% per year
Luxury hit baths, Roman themed jacuzzi’s
March 2, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Luxury hit baths, Roman themed jacuzzi’s
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
If yesterday was the low, it was one of those drops that happen every other month on avg. That's how this works.
It's been 1-1/3 yrs since the last 10% drop and 2-1/3 yrs since the last 15% drop. Something to look forward to
It's been 1-1/3 yrs since the last 10% drop and 2-1/3 yrs since the last 15% drop. Something to look forward to
Again, a 3-5% drawdown every other month with a 10% correction per year should be part of your annual expectations. From Ryan Detrick
February 28, 2025 at 3:00 PM
If yesterday was the low, it was one of those drops that happen every other month on avg. That's how this works.
It's been 1-1/3 yrs since the last 10% drop and 2-1/3 yrs since the last 15% drop. Something to look forward to
It's been 1-1/3 yrs since the last 10% drop and 2-1/3 yrs since the last 15% drop. Something to look forward to
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
This BRK cash chart is making the rounds. BRK had low cash at dot com peak having cashed up in '98. Similarly, it cashed up 2 yrs before GFC and invested that cash into the peak (LHS).
Great company and smart investors but BRK hasn't sustained any market outperformance in 23 yrs (RHS).
Great company and smart investors but BRK hasn't sustained any market outperformance in 23 yrs (RHS).
February 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
This BRK cash chart is making the rounds. BRK had low cash at dot com peak having cashed up in '98. Similarly, it cashed up 2 yrs before GFC and invested that cash into the peak (LHS).
Great company and smart investors but BRK hasn't sustained any market outperformance in 23 yrs (RHS).
Great company and smart investors but BRK hasn't sustained any market outperformance in 23 yrs (RHS).
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
S&P 500 annual returns:
1928-2024: +9.9%
1950-2024: +11.5%
2000-2024: +7.6%
2009-2024: +14.5%
The long-term depends on your time horizon
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-...
1928-2024: +9.9%
1950-2024: +11.5%
2000-2024: +7.6%
2009-2024: +14.5%
The long-term depends on your time horizon
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-...
February 8, 2025 at 4:05 PM
S&P 500 annual returns:
1928-2024: +9.9%
1950-2024: +11.5%
2000-2024: +7.6%
2009-2024: +14.5%
The long-term depends on your time horizon
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-...
1928-2024: +9.9%
1950-2024: +11.5%
2000-2024: +7.6%
2009-2024: +14.5%
The long-term depends on your time horizon
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-...
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Kahneman: What you should learn when you make a mistake because you did not anticipate something is that the world is difficult to anticipate. That’s the correct lesson to learn from surprises: that the world is surprising
As a short reminder, almost nobody had in their forecasts year ahead forecasts:
2020: Global pandemic
2021: Inflation runs toward 9%
2022: Russia Invades Ukraine
2023: Hamas surprise attack/Israeli-Gaza war
2024: DeepSeek roils markets, challenges US advantages in AI
ritholtz.com/2025/01/nobo...
2020: Global pandemic
2021: Inflation runs toward 9%
2022: Russia Invades Ukraine
2023: Hamas surprise attack/Israeli-Gaza war
2024: DeepSeek roils markets, challenges US advantages in AI
ritholtz.com/2025/01/nobo...
Nobody Knows Anything, DeepSeek Edition - The Big Picture
At the risk of repeating myself ad nauseam, this is as good a time as any to remind ourselves how little we know about the present and how completely unexpected events can be in the future. Our story ...
ritholtz.com
January 28, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Kahneman: What you should learn when you make a mistake because you did not anticipate something is that the world is difficult to anticipate. That’s the correct lesson to learn from surprises: that the world is surprising
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
$SPX is down all of 4% since last month's ATH. 5% corrections happen every other month and drops up to 10-15% should be part of your annual expectations. Those moves are all about psychology. Big picture, with yesterday's solid employment report, we're most likely in an ongoing expansion
January 11, 2025 at 8:06 PM
$SPX is down all of 4% since last month's ATH. 5% corrections happen every other month and drops up to 10-15% should be part of your annual expectations. Those moves are all about psychology. Big picture, with yesterday's solid employment report, we're most likely in an ongoing expansion
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Forward PEs (per Fact Set):
Mag 7 stocks - 35x
S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 - 15.5x
S&P Mid Cap 400 - 16.4x
S&P Small Cap 600 - 16.2x
Mag 7 stocks - 35x
S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 - 15.5x
S&P Mid Cap 400 - 16.4x
S&P Small Cap 600 - 16.2x
January 8, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Forward PEs (per Fact Set):
Mag 7 stocks - 35x
S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 - 15.5x
S&P Mid Cap 400 - 16.4x
S&P Small Cap 600 - 16.2x
Mag 7 stocks - 35x
S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 - 15.5x
S&P Mid Cap 400 - 16.4x
S&P Small Cap 600 - 16.2x
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Since 1928, the S&P has posted a negative annual return in 26 years (27% of the time). Most (14 years, 54%) coincide w/ recessions. Of the remaining 12 years, 5 were war-related & 4 were due to rising interest rates/Fed policy. In the other 71 years (73%), US stocks made money.
January 7, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Since 1928, the S&P has posted a negative annual return in 26 years (27% of the time). Most (14 years, 54%) coincide w/ recessions. Of the remaining 12 years, 5 were war-related & 4 were due to rising interest rates/Fed policy. In the other 71 years (73%), US stocks made money.
A short story I wrote - An elite vampire hunter never believed in soulmates—until he met princess Veronica, the vampire he’s sworn to kill. www.wattpad.com/story/386906...
The Fated Union - Christopher1100 - WattpadWpReadWpRead
When Christopher and Matthew, elite hunters for the clandestine Aegis organization, are assigned a near-impossible mission-assassinating a vampire royal at the...
www.wattpad.com
December 31, 2024 at 9:24 PM
A short story I wrote - An elite vampire hunter never believed in soulmates—until he met princess Veronica, the vampire he’s sworn to kill. www.wattpad.com/story/386906...
Over 99% of participants lost money in multi-level marketing schemes (MLM)
December 26, 2024 at 9:04 PM
Over 99% of participants lost money in multi-level marketing schemes (MLM)
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
This week’s edition of @profgalloway.com’s No Mercy / No Malice was written by Ed Elson and read by yours truly.
No Mercy / No Malice: People Are The New Brands
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway · Episode
open.spotify.com
December 21, 2024 at 11:26 PM
This week’s edition of @profgalloway.com’s No Mercy / No Malice was written by Ed Elson and read by yours truly.
“even at the lows of that crash in 2002 the market was higher than it was in 1996 when irrational exuberance was first uttered.”
Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in Dec 1996
In the previous 17 years the S&P was up ~16%/year
It would rise another 115% before the dot-com bubble popped following Greenspan's speech
Things can always get crazier
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/sign...
In the previous 17 years the S&P was up ~16%/year
It would rise another 115% before the dot-com bubble popped following Greenspan's speech
Things can always get crazier
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/sign...
December 22, 2024 at 9:58 AM
“even at the lows of that crash in 2002 the market was higher than it was in 1996 when irrational exuberance was first uttered.”
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Writing isn't what you do after you have an idea. It's how you develop an inkling into an insight.
Turning thoughts into words sharpens reasoning. What's fuzzy in your head is clear on the page.
"I'm not a writer" shouldn't stop you from writing. Writing is a tool for thinking.
Turning thoughts into words sharpens reasoning. What's fuzzy in your head is clear on the page.
"I'm not a writer" shouldn't stop you from writing. Writing is a tool for thinking.
December 15, 2024 at 2:00 PM
Writing isn't what you do after you have an idea. It's how you develop an inkling into an insight.
Turning thoughts into words sharpens reasoning. What's fuzzy in your head is clear on the page.
"I'm not a writer" shouldn't stop you from writing. Writing is a tool for thinking.
Turning thoughts into words sharpens reasoning. What's fuzzy in your head is clear on the page.
"I'm not a writer" shouldn't stop you from writing. Writing is a tool for thinking.
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
While US profits have burst higher, the ROW hasn't. Dominant market cap is the result. Maybe this changes going forward (from Mike Zaccardi)
December 10, 2024 at 2:01 PM
While US profits have burst higher, the ROW hasn't. Dominant market cap is the result. Maybe this changes going forward (from Mike Zaccardi)
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
December 9, 2024 at 10:42 PM
Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
We need to be better men. #masculinity
December 2, 2024 at 8:44 PM
We need to be better men. #masculinity
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Is 2024 a good omen for next year? No. Over the past nearly 130 years, if stocks gain over 20% one year, their return the next year is not much different than if the market had fallen. Moreover, the odds of stocks rising next year is the same regardless (from Mark Hulbert)
November 26, 2024 at 4:37 PM
Is 2024 a good omen for next year? No. Over the past nearly 130 years, if stocks gain over 20% one year, their return the next year is not much different than if the market had fallen. Moreover, the odds of stocks rising next year is the same regardless (from Mark Hulbert)
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
But, you say, stocks are now so expensive. They can't rise next year. Actually, they can. Valuations have little predictive value on next year's return. The correlation coefficient is just 8%, meaning 92% of next year's return is explained by factors other than valuation (from JPM)
November 26, 2024 at 4:41 PM
But, you say, stocks are now so expensive. They can't rise next year. Actually, they can. Valuations have little predictive value on next year's return. The correlation coefficient is just 8%, meaning 92% of next year's return is explained by factors other than valuation (from JPM)
Reposted by Christopher O’Leary
Imagine you're the world's worst market timer - you take a lump sum of all your cash and you buy the S&P 500 only at generational peaks. The miracle of equities is that, despite your rotten luck, you still end up okay if you allow enough time to pass.
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/the-...
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/the-...
November 19, 2024 at 4:17 PM
Imagine you're the world's worst market timer - you take a lump sum of all your cash and you buy the S&P 500 only at generational peaks. The miracle of equities is that, despite your rotten luck, you still end up okay if you allow enough time to pass.
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/the-...
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/the-...