Ben Carlson
@bencarlson007.bsky.social
Reposted by Ben Carlson
#$AAPL will own consumer AI. 2.5 billion active devices worldwide. Every app has to play nice and be interoperable with Agentic Siri upon launch.
They’re never the first product. Just the best.
And unavoidable.
They’re never the first product. Just the best.
And unavoidable.
February 18, 2026 at 12:32 PM
#$AAPL will own consumer AI. 2.5 billion active devices worldwide. Every app has to play nice and be interoperable with Agentic Siri upon launch.
They’re never the first product. Just the best.
And unavoidable.
They’re never the first product. Just the best.
And unavoidable.
Animal Spirits: Is AI a Mistake?
The doomsday AI jobs scenario
The Saas Apocalypse
The ex-US trade is working
Gen Z loves the stock market
The Millionaire Next Door take down
Pros & cons of prediction markets
Middle-aged dad milestones & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
The doomsday AI jobs scenario
The Saas Apocalypse
The ex-US trade is working
Gen Z loves the stock market
The Millionaire Next Door take down
Pros & cons of prediction markets
Middle-aged dad milestones & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
February 18, 2026 at 1:45 PM
Animal Spirits: Is AI a Mistake?
The doomsday AI jobs scenario
The Saas Apocalypse
The ex-US trade is working
Gen Z loves the stock market
The Millionaire Next Door take down
Pros & cons of prediction markets
Middle-aged dad milestones & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
The doomsday AI jobs scenario
The Saas Apocalypse
The ex-US trade is working
Gen Z loves the stock market
The Millionaire Next Door take down
Pros & cons of prediction markets
Middle-aged dad milestones & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
My brother Jon passed away a year ago
I'm a midwesterner so I typically bottle up all of my emotions
But I wanted to share some thoughts on what I've learned about grief
It can be a lonely emotion but the way you work through it is with others
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
I'm a midwesterner so I typically bottle up all of my emotions
But I wanted to share some thoughts on what I've learned about grief
It can be a lonely emotion but the way you work through it is with others
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
Some Thoughts on Grief - A Wealth of Common Sense
Some thoughts on my big brother a year later.
awealthofcommonsense.com
February 16, 2026 at 4:42 AM
My brother Jon passed away a year ago
I'm a midwesterner so I typically bottle up all of my emotions
But I wanted to share some thoughts on what I've learned about grief
It can be a lonely emotion but the way you work through it is with others
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
I'm a midwesterner so I typically bottle up all of my emotions
But I wanted to share some thoughts on what I've learned about grief
It can be a lonely emotion but the way you work through it is with others
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
Let's say you won a contest and have the choice between one of two prizes:
1. A $3 million house
2. A $3 million portfolio
Which one would you choose?
My answer might surprise you:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/woul...
1. A $3 million house
2. A $3 million portfolio
Which one would you choose?
My answer might surprise you:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/woul...
February 15, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Let's say you won a contest and have the choice between one of two prizes:
1. A $3 million house
2. A $3 million portfolio
Which one would you choose?
My answer might surprise you:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/woul...
1. A $3 million house
2. A $3 million portfolio
Which one would you choose?
My answer might surprise you:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/woul...
The Pitt is the best show on tv right now and it isn’t particularly close
February 14, 2026 at 2:34 AM
The Pitt is the best show on tv right now and it isn’t particularly close
The Anthropic CEO thinks AI could give us 10-20% gdp growth
It could be 50% in Silicon Valley
I guess the top 5% will be spending all the money in the economy when everyone loses a job?
It could be 50% in Silicon Valley
I guess the top 5% will be spending all the money in the economy when everyone loses a job?
February 13, 2026 at 8:41 PM
The Anthropic CEO thinks AI could give us 10-20% gdp growth
It could be 50% in Silicon Valley
I guess the top 5% will be spending all the money in the economy when everyone loses a job?
It could be 50% in Silicon Valley
I guess the top 5% will be spending all the money in the economy when everyone loses a job?
The worst 2 days for silver prices have both occurred in the past 2 weeks
1/30/26 -26.4%
2/5/26 -19.6%
3/27/80 -18.6%
Why are we seeing more drastic market moves these days?
Some thoughts on the Keynes beauty contest on steroids:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/mark...
1/30/26 -26.4%
2/5/26 -19.6%
3/27/80 -18.6%
Why are we seeing more drastic market moves these days?
Some thoughts on the Keynes beauty contest on steroids:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/mark...
Markets Are Now a Beauty Contest on Steroids - A Wealth of Common Sense
The John Maynard Keynes beauty contest is alive and well in today's market.
awealthofcommonsense.com
February 11, 2026 at 5:44 PM
The worst 2 days for silver prices have both occurred in the past 2 weeks
1/30/26 -26.4%
2/5/26 -19.6%
3/27/80 -18.6%
Why are we seeing more drastic market moves these days?
Some thoughts on the Keynes beauty contest on steroids:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/mark...
1/30/26 -26.4%
2/5/26 -19.6%
3/27/80 -18.6%
Why are we seeing more drastic market moves these days?
Some thoughts on the Keynes beauty contest on steroids:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/mark...
The prime age labor force participation ratio is essentially back to all-time highs
The unemployment rate is at 4.3%
And no one cares b/c all everyone can talk about is how many jobs AI is going to destroy
Fun times in the labor market
The unemployment rate is at 4.3%
And no one cares b/c all everyone can talk about is how many jobs AI is going to destroy
Fun times in the labor market
February 11, 2026 at 5:09 PM
The prime age labor force participation ratio is essentially back to all-time highs
The unemployment rate is at 4.3%
And no one cares b/c all everyone can talk about is how many jobs AI is going to destroy
Fun times in the labor market
The unemployment rate is at 4.3%
And no one cares b/c all everyone can talk about is how many jobs AI is going to destroy
Fun times in the labor market
We're gonna destroy 50% of all white collar jobs, college graduates are never going to find work again and Meta is going to force feed so many AI-driven ads into your eyeballs you won't be able to breathe
But AI could also like do some good in the world
But AI could also like do some good in the world
February 11, 2026 at 1:49 PM
We're gonna destroy 50% of all white collar jobs, college graduates are never going to find work again and Meta is going to force feed so many AI-driven ads into your eyeballs you won't be able to breathe
But AI could also like do some good in the world
But AI could also like do some good in the world
Animal Spirits: What Would You Do With $3 Million?
AI is eating software stocks
How to catch a falling knife
It's finally a stock picker's market
The ex-Mag 7 trade is working
The case for emerging markets
The best airline to fly & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
AI is eating software stocks
How to catch a falling knife
It's finally a stock picker's market
The ex-Mag 7 trade is working
The case for emerging markets
The best airline to fly & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
February 11, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Animal Spirits: What Would You Do With $3 Million?
AI is eating software stocks
How to catch a falling knife
It's finally a stock picker's market
The ex-Mag 7 trade is working
The case for emerging markets
The best airline to fly & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
AI is eating software stocks
How to catch a falling knife
It's finally a stock picker's market
The ex-Mag 7 trade is working
The case for emerging markets
The best airline to fly & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
The stock market is more or less at all-time highs
Same with small caps & foreign stocks
Yet many name-brand companies are getting nuked right now
Concentrated positions are very fun on the upside
They can also wreck you on the downside
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/iceb...
Same with small caps & foreign stocks
Yet many name-brand companies are getting nuked right now
Concentrated positions are very fun on the upside
They can also wreck you on the downside
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/iceb...
February 9, 2026 at 1:46 PM
The stock market is more or less at all-time highs
Same with small caps & foreign stocks
Yet many name-brand companies are getting nuked right now
Concentrated positions are very fun on the upside
They can also wreck you on the downside
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/iceb...
Same with small caps & foreign stocks
Yet many name-brand companies are getting nuked right now
Concentrated positions are very fun on the upside
They can also wreck you on the downside
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/iceb...
You should spend more money when you have the ability to enjoy it
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/the-...
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/the-...
February 7, 2026 at 4:08 PM
You should spend more money when you have the ability to enjoy it
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/the-...
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/the-...
Some things I was wrong about:
I thought bitcoin was digital gold
I thought meme stocks were a fad
I thought government debt was too high to raise rates too much
I thought an AI bubble was inevitable (TBD)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
I thought bitcoin was digital gold
I thought meme stocks were a fad
I thought government debt was too high to raise rates too much
I thought an AI bubble was inevitable (TBD)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
February 7, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Some things I was wrong about:
I thought bitcoin was digital gold
I thought meme stocks were a fad
I thought government debt was too high to raise rates too much
I thought an AI bubble was inevitable (TBD)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
I thought bitcoin was digital gold
I thought meme stocks were a fad
I thought government debt was too high to raise rates too much
I thought an AI bubble was inevitable (TBD)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...
The crypto complex is in a nice little crash at the moment:
Bitcoin -46%
Ethereum -59%
COIN -63%
HOOD -51%
MSTR -76%
BMNR -86%
Bitcoin -46%
Ethereum -59%
COIN -63%
HOOD -51%
MSTR -76%
BMNR -86%
February 5, 2026 at 3:16 PM
The crypto complex is in a nice little crash at the moment:
Bitcoin -46%
Ethereum -59%
COIN -63%
HOOD -51%
MSTR -76%
BMNR -86%
Bitcoin -46%
Ethereum -59%
COIN -63%
HOOD -51%
MSTR -76%
BMNR -86%
Is Social Security insolvent?
Can young ppl still expect to receive benefits?
How do you fix Social Security?
What if the government cuts benefits?
Some thoughts on the most important retirement plan ever created:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/soci...
Can young ppl still expect to receive benefits?
How do you fix Social Security?
What if the government cuts benefits?
Some thoughts on the most important retirement plan ever created:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/soci...
February 5, 2026 at 3:11 PM
Is Social Security insolvent?
Can young ppl still expect to receive benefits?
How do you fix Social Security?
What if the government cuts benefits?
Some thoughts on the most important retirement plan ever created:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/soci...
Can young ppl still expect to receive benefits?
How do you fix Social Security?
What if the government cuts benefits?
Some thoughts on the most important retirement plan ever created:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/soci...
Animal Spirits: Gold's 1987 Moment
The most exciting market decade ever
The epic gold-silver boom-bust
Social media changed the markets forever
Does the Fed matter?
Is crypto dead again?
Why young ppl are angry, DoorDash discourse & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
The most exciting market decade ever
The epic gold-silver boom-bust
Social media changed the markets forever
Does the Fed matter?
Is crypto dead again?
Why young ppl are angry, DoorDash discourse & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
February 4, 2026 at 2:15 PM
Animal Spirits: Gold's 1987 Moment
The most exciting market decade ever
The epic gold-silver boom-bust
Social media changed the markets forever
Does the Fed matter?
Is crypto dead again?
Why young ppl are angry, DoorDash discourse & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
The most exciting market decade ever
The epic gold-silver boom-bust
Social media changed the markets forever
Does the Fed matter?
Is crypto dead again?
Why young ppl are angry, DoorDash discourse & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...
There was a theory that the ETFs would do away with crypto volatility
About that...
Bitcoin down 42%
Ethereum down 56%
About that...
Bitcoin down 42%
Ethereum down 56%
February 3, 2026 at 7:10 PM
There was a theory that the ETFs would do away with crypto volatility
About that...
Bitcoin down 42%
Ethereum down 56%
About that...
Bitcoin down 42%
Ethereum down 56%
Paypal was spun out of eBay in 2015
If you held the stock from the first trading day until now you would have underperformed t-bills
If you held the stock from the first trading day until now you would have underperformed t-bills
February 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM
Paypal was spun out of eBay in 2015
If you held the stock from the first trading day until now you would have underperformed t-bills
If you held the stock from the first trading day until now you would have underperformed t-bills
Some notable drawdowns:
Oracle -49%
Coinbase -55%
Robinhood -41%
Lululemon -65%
Target -42%
Nike -52%
Adobe -53%
All while the S&P 500 is w/in spitting distance from all-time highs
Oracle -49%
Coinbase -55%
Robinhood -41%
Lululemon -65%
Target -42%
Nike -52%
Adobe -53%
All while the S&P 500 is w/in spitting distance from all-time highs
February 2, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Some notable drawdowns:
Oracle -49%
Coinbase -55%
Robinhood -41%
Lululemon -65%
Target -42%
Nike -52%
Adobe -53%
All while the S&P 500 is w/in spitting distance from all-time highs
Oracle -49%
Coinbase -55%
Robinhood -41%
Lululemon -65%
Target -42%
Nike -52%
Adobe -53%
All while the S&P 500 is w/in spitting distance from all-time highs
US Median home price in 1970: $17,000
If home prices tracked inflation that would be $142,000 today
Actual median price today: $418,000
Why is housing so much more expensive?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/hous...
If home prices tracked inflation that would be $142,000 today
Actual median price today: $418,000
Why is housing so much more expensive?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/hous...
February 2, 2026 at 2:45 PM
US Median home price in 1970: $17,000
If home prices tracked inflation that would be $142,000 today
Actual median price today: $418,000
Why is housing so much more expensive?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/hous...
If home prices tracked inflation that would be $142,000 today
Actual median price today: $418,000
Why is housing so much more expensive?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/hous...
Vince Vaughn in the Swingers diner scene at the end of the movie has to be the greatest drunk acting of all time
(2nd place Will Ferrell in Old School)
(2nd place Will Ferrell in Old School)
February 1, 2026 at 4:35 AM
Vince Vaughn in the Swingers diner scene at the end of the movie has to be the greatest drunk acting of all time
(2nd place Will Ferrell in Old School)
(2nd place Will Ferrell in Old School)
The 2x leveraged silver fund has lost more in one day than the S&P 500 lost in the entire Great Financial Crisis
January 30, 2026 at 8:32 PM
The 2x leveraged silver fund has lost more in one day than the S&P 500 lost in the entire Great Financial Crisis
International stocks finally outperformed last year
Foreign is outperforming again this year
The dollar continues to fall
Is diversification finally working again?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/is-d...
Foreign is outperforming again this year
The dollar continues to fall
Is diversification finally working again?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/is-d...
January 30, 2026 at 5:56 PM
International stocks finally outperformed last year
Foreign is outperforming again this year
The dollar continues to fall
Is diversification finally working again?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/is-d...
Foreign is outperforming again this year
The dollar continues to fall
Is diversification finally working again?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/is-d...
Gold now up nearly 23% per year in the 2020s
Still kind of interesting this is the first decade both stocks and gold have strong returns together
Still kind of interesting this is the first decade both stocks and gold have strong returns together
January 29, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Gold now up nearly 23% per year in the 2020s
Still kind of interesting this is the first decade both stocks and gold have strong returns together
Still kind of interesting this is the first decade both stocks and gold have strong returns together
For a bull market this has been a wild decade:
-35% Covid crash in a month
Negative oil prices
Meme stocks/NFTs/SPACs
9% inflation
Fed funds from 0% to 5%
Worst bond bear mkt ever
SVB bank
Liberation Day
Dollar falling
Gold/silver going bananas
And the US stock market still +15%/year
-35% Covid crash in a month
Negative oil prices
Meme stocks/NFTs/SPACs
9% inflation
Fed funds from 0% to 5%
Worst bond bear mkt ever
SVB bank
Liberation Day
Dollar falling
Gold/silver going bananas
And the US stock market still +15%/year
January 28, 2026 at 7:12 PM
For a bull market this has been a wild decade:
-35% Covid crash in a month
Negative oil prices
Meme stocks/NFTs/SPACs
9% inflation
Fed funds from 0% to 5%
Worst bond bear mkt ever
SVB bank
Liberation Day
Dollar falling
Gold/silver going bananas
And the US stock market still +15%/year
-35% Covid crash in a month
Negative oil prices
Meme stocks/NFTs/SPACs
9% inflation
Fed funds from 0% to 5%
Worst bond bear mkt ever
SVB bank
Liberation Day
Dollar falling
Gold/silver going bananas
And the US stock market still +15%/year