Ben Carlson
@bencarlson007.bsky.social
www.awealthofcommonsense.com
From the pre-Covid peak in Feb 2020:
Interest rates are up a lot
Valuations are a little higher (not much)
The stock market has doubled
Interest rates are up a lot
Valuations are a little higher (not much)
The stock market has doubled
January 5, 2026 at 2:53 PM
From the pre-Covid peak in Feb 2020:
Interest rates are up a lot
Valuations are a little higher (not much)
The stock market has doubled
Interest rates are up a lot
Valuations are a little higher (not much)
The stock market has doubled
2025 returns:
GOOG +65%
NVDA +39%
SPY +18%
MSFT +16%
META +13%
TSLA +11%
AAPL +9%
AMZN +5%
Just 2 out of the Mag 7 beat the market last year
Some other surprises here:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/6-su...
GOOG +65%
NVDA +39%
SPY +18%
MSFT +16%
META +13%
TSLA +11%
AAPL +9%
AMZN +5%
Just 2 out of the Mag 7 beat the market last year
Some other surprises here:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/6-su...
6 Surprises From 2025 - A Wealth of Common Sense
Some things that were surprising in 2025.
awealthofcommonsense.com
January 4, 2026 at 5:33 PM
2025 returns:
GOOG +65%
NVDA +39%
SPY +18%
MSFT +16%
META +13%
TSLA +11%
AAPL +9%
AMZN +5%
Just 2 out of the Mag 7 beat the market last year
Some other surprises here:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/6-su...
GOOG +65%
NVDA +39%
SPY +18%
MSFT +16%
META +13%
TSLA +11%
AAPL +9%
AMZN +5%
Just 2 out of the Mag 7 beat the market last year
Some other surprises here:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/6-su...
S&P 500 returns by year:
2019 +31.2%
2020 +18.0%
2021 +28.5%
2022 -18.0%
2023 +26.1%
2024 +24.9%
2025 +19.4%
Some thoughts on why higher-than-average returns are the biggest risk right now:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
2019 +31.2%
2020 +18.0%
2021 +28.5%
2022 -18.0%
2023 +26.1%
2024 +24.9%
2025 +19.4%
Some thoughts on why higher-than-average returns are the biggest risk right now:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
December 31, 2025 at 4:02 PM
S&P 500 returns by year:
2019 +31.2%
2020 +18.0%
2021 +28.5%
2022 -18.0%
2023 +26.1%
2024 +24.9%
2025 +19.4%
Some thoughts on why higher-than-average returns are the biggest risk right now:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
2019 +31.2%
2020 +18.0%
2021 +28.5%
2022 -18.0%
2023 +26.1%
2024 +24.9%
2025 +19.4%
Some thoughts on why higher-than-average returns are the biggest risk right now:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks of 2025
Small caps vs large caps
Why is silver going vertical?
Who are the rich millennials?
When to spend $$$ in retirement
Over-optimization is a disease
Bowling is the best family holiday activity & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
Small caps vs large caps
Why is silver going vertical?
Who are the rich millennials?
When to spend $$$ in retirement
Over-optimization is a disease
Bowling is the best family holiday activity & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
December 31, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks of 2025
Small caps vs large caps
Why is silver going vertical?
Who are the rich millennials?
When to spend $$$ in retirement
Over-optimization is a disease
Bowling is the best family holiday activity & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
Small caps vs large caps
Why is silver going vertical?
Who are the rich millennials?
When to spend $$$ in retirement
Over-optimization is a disease
Bowling is the best family holiday activity & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
Ellis would definitely work in private credit in the modern version of Die Hard
December 31, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Ellis would definitely work in private credit in the modern version of Die Hard
Took my first Waymo ride tonight
It really is as magical as ppl say it is
The future is gonna be so cool
It really is as magical as ppl say it is
The future is gonna be so cool
December 31, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Took my first Waymo ride tonight
It really is as magical as ppl say it is
The future is gonna be so cool
It really is as magical as ppl say it is
The future is gonna be so cool
Let’s say the US stock market falls 30% in 2026
That would take us back to levels last seen in January 2024
Not that bad
This would be a wonderful buying opportunity right?
It depend on the cause of the decline and your personal circumstances:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/a-30...
That would take us back to levels last seen in January 2024
Not that bad
This would be a wonderful buying opportunity right?
It depend on the cause of the decline and your personal circumstances:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/a-30...
A 30% Decline in the Stock Market - A Wealth of Common Sense
Time traveling in the stock market.
awealthofcommonsense.com
December 28, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Let’s say the US stock market falls 30% in 2026
That would take us back to levels last seen in January 2024
Not that bad
This would be a wonderful buying opportunity right?
It depend on the cause of the decline and your personal circumstances:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/a-30...
That would take us back to levels last seen in January 2024
Not that bad
This would be a wonderful buying opportunity right?
It depend on the cause of the decline and your personal circumstances:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/a-30...
December 26, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The kids are in bed
Presents are under the tree
The house is quiet
One of my favorite beers every year
Merry Christmas to all
Presents are under the tree
The house is quiet
One of my favorite beers every year
Merry Christmas to all
December 25, 2025 at 3:48 AM
The kids are in bed
Presents are under the tree
The house is quiet
One of my favorite beers every year
Merry Christmas to all
Presents are under the tree
The house is quiet
One of my favorite beers every year
Merry Christmas to all
I didn’t love Four Christmases when it first came out b/c my early-2000s Vince Vaughn expectations were too high
But every year it grows on me a little bit
It’s entering the Christmas movie rewatchable zone
But every year it grows on me a little bit
It’s entering the Christmas movie rewatchable zone
December 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
I didn’t love Four Christmases when it first came out b/c my early-2000s Vince Vaughn expectations were too high
But every year it grows on me a little bit
It’s entering the Christmas movie rewatchable zone
But every year it grows on me a little bit
It’s entering the Christmas movie rewatchable zone
Animal Spirits: The Biggest Risk in 2026
What a "normal" year for stocks looks like
What if the market falls 30%?
The worst ETFs
How private investments go bad
Financial nihilism
Michael's depressing 21st bday story & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
What a "normal" year for stocks looks like
What if the market falls 30%?
The worst ETFs
How private investments go bad
Financial nihilism
Michael's depressing 21st bday story & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
December 24, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Animal Spirits: The Biggest Risk in 2026
What a "normal" year for stocks looks like
What if the market falls 30%?
The worst ETFs
How private investments go bad
Financial nihilism
Michael's depressing 21st bday story & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
What a "normal" year for stocks looks like
What if the market falls 30%?
The worst ETFs
How private investments go bad
Financial nihilism
Michael's depressing 21st bday story & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
Another new all-time high for the S&P 500 today
That's 38 this year
Here's the # of ATHs every year this decade:
2020 - 32
2021 - 70
2022 - 1
2023 - 0
2024 - 57
2025 - 38
That's 38 this year
Here's the # of ATHs every year this decade:
2020 - 32
2021 - 70
2022 - 1
2023 - 0
2024 - 57
2025 - 38
December 24, 2025 at 12:36 AM
Another new all-time high for the S&P 500 today
That's 38 this year
Here's the # of ATHs every year this decade:
2020 - 32
2021 - 70
2022 - 1
2023 - 0
2024 - 57
2025 - 38
That's 38 this year
Here's the # of ATHs every year this decade:
2020 - 32
2021 - 70
2022 - 1
2023 - 0
2024 - 57
2025 - 38
6 simple ways to improve your investment performance:
1. Automate & get out of the way
2. Think portfolio not individual investments
3. Consolidate
4. Track your performance
5. Define your time horizon
6. Save more money
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/6-si...
1. Automate & get out of the way
2. Think portfolio not individual investments
3. Consolidate
4. Track your performance
5. Define your time horizon
6. Save more money
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/6-si...
6 Simple Ways to Improve Your Investment Performance - A Wealth of Common Sense
Some thoughts on how to simplify your investments and improve performance.
awealthofcommonsense.com
December 23, 2025 at 1:53 PM
6 simple ways to improve your investment performance:
1. Automate & get out of the way
2. Think portfolio not individual investments
3. Consolidate
4. Track your performance
5. Define your time horizon
6. Save more money
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/6-si...
1. Automate & get out of the way
2. Think portfolio not individual investments
3. Consolidate
4. Track your performance
5. Define your time horizon
6. Save more money
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/6-si...
Everyone always talks about how loaded Mr McCallister was to show how rich ppl supposedly were back in the day
No one ever brings up the fact that Clark Griswold didn’t even have enough money in his checking acct to cover the deposit on his pool
That’s the American dream
No one ever brings up the fact that Clark Griswold didn’t even have enough money in his checking acct to cover the deposit on his pool
That’s the American dream
December 21, 2025 at 4:02 AM
Everyone always talks about how loaded Mr McCallister was to show how rich ppl supposedly were back in the day
No one ever brings up the fact that Clark Griswold didn’t even have enough money in his checking acct to cover the deposit on his pool
That’s the American dream
No one ever brings up the fact that Clark Griswold didn’t even have enough money in his checking acct to cover the deposit on his pool
That’s the American dream
When I graduated there weren't podcasts, blogs/newsletters to learn from
So I read as many books as I could
Reading helped me more than anything early in my career
Some thoughts on the benefits of reading:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/on-t...
So I read as many books as I could
Reading helped me more than anything early in my career
Some thoughts on the benefits of reading:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/on-t...
On The Benefits of Reading - A Wealth of Common Sense
How reading changed my career.
awealthofcommonsense.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:38 PM
When I graduated there weren't podcasts, blogs/newsletters to learn from
So I read as many books as I could
Reading helped me more than anything early in my career
Some thoughts on the benefits of reading:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/on-t...
So I read as many books as I could
Reading helped me more than anything early in my career
Some thoughts on the benefits of reading:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/on-t...
Since 1950 the S&P 500 has returned 8.2% over the rate of inflation
But there have been two full decades where stocks returned less than annual inflation
Some thoughts on stocks vs. bonds. vs. inflation:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
But there have been two full decades where stocks returned less than annual inflation
Some thoughts on stocks vs. bonds. vs. inflation:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
December 18, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Since 1950 the S&P 500 has returned 8.2% over the rate of inflation
But there have been two full decades where stocks returned less than annual inflation
Some thoughts on stocks vs. bonds. vs. inflation:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
But there have been two full decades where stocks returned less than annual inflation
Some thoughts on stocks vs. bonds. vs. inflation:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...
We polled our audience to see if they would give up income gains they've recieved in the 2020s if it meant going back to 2019 price levels
My guess is loss aversion would kick in and ppl would regret giving up their income gains but this is interesting
My guess is loss aversion would kick in and ppl would regret giving up their income gains but this is interesting
December 17, 2025 at 5:25 PM
We polled our audience to see if they would give up income gains they've recieved in the 2020s if it meant going back to 2019 price levels
My guess is loss aversion would kick in and ppl would regret giving up their income gains but this is interesting
My guess is loss aversion would kick in and ppl would regret giving up their income gains but this is interesting
Animal Spirits: All-Time Highs Should Feel Better Than This
Ex-Mag 7 stocks are breaking out
No one wants a bubble
Stock market returns in 2026
Howard Marks on hedging AI
Data centers in space?
The 2026 housing outlook & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
Ex-Mag 7 stocks are breaking out
No one wants a bubble
Stock market returns in 2026
Howard Marks on hedging AI
Data centers in space?
The 2026 housing outlook & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
December 17, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Animal Spirits: All-Time Highs Should Feel Better Than This
Ex-Mag 7 stocks are breaking out
No one wants a bubble
Stock market returns in 2026
Howard Marks on hedging AI
Data centers in space?
The 2026 housing outlook & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
Ex-Mag 7 stocks are breaking out
No one wants a bubble
Stock market returns in 2026
Howard Marks on hedging AI
Data centers in space?
The 2026 housing outlook & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...
The new Knives Out was fun
Much more like the original than the 2nd one
Daniel Craig is so good and the cast is loaded
I hope they just keep making these movies and White Lotus seasons forever
Much more like the original than the 2nd one
Daniel Craig is so good and the cast is loaded
I hope they just keep making these movies and White Lotus seasons forever
December 17, 2025 at 12:48 AM
The new Knives Out was fun
Much more like the original than the 2nd one
Daniel Craig is so good and the cast is loaded
I hope they just keep making these movies and White Lotus seasons forever
Much more like the original than the 2nd one
Daniel Craig is so good and the cast is loaded
I hope they just keep making these movies and White Lotus seasons forever
60 million households (1.6% of the global population) hold nearly 50% of the world's wealth
The top 18% own 87% of the wealth
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/how-...
The top 18% own 87% of the wealth
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/how-...
How to Become a Moderate Millionaire - A Wealth of Common Sense
How to become a millionaire.
awealthofcommonsense.com
December 15, 2025 at 9:16 PM
60 million households (1.6% of the global population) hold nearly 50% of the world's wealth
The top 18% own 87% of the wealth
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/how-...
The top 18% own 87% of the wealth
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/how-...
Greatest cameo in movie history?
I say yes
I say yes
December 14, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Greatest cameo in movie history?
I say yes
I say yes
Since 1950 the average US inflation rate is 3.5%
It was 1.8% in the 2010s but 4% this decade
What happens if inflation is 3% going forward instead of 2%?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/infl...
It was 1.8% in the 2010s but 4% this decade
What happens if inflation is 3% going forward instead of 2%?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/infl...
Inflation is Not Going Back - A Wealth of Common Sense
Is 3% inflation the new 2% inflation?
awealthofcommonsense.com
December 14, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Since 1950 the average US inflation rate is 3.5%
It was 1.8% in the 2010s but 4% this decade
What happens if inflation is 3% going forward instead of 2%?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/infl...
It was 1.8% in the 2010s but 4% this decade
What happens if inflation is 3% going forward instead of 2%?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/infl...
Deutsche Bank has historical 60/40 returns going back to 1900 for G-7 countries
Much better than I would have thought for most countries (on a nominal basis)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/inve...
Much better than I would have thought for most countries (on a nominal basis)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/inve...
December 14, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Deutsche Bank has historical 60/40 returns going back to 1900 for G-7 countries
Much better than I would have thought for most countries (on a nominal basis)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/inve...
Much better than I would have thought for most countries (on a nominal basis)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/inve...
Some thoughts on Guinness:
It’s the best looking beer by a mile and there isn’t a close second
It just tastes better in a Guinness pint glass (like how martinis get a premium from the glasses you drink them out of)
It’s shocking how low calorie a Guinness is. Basically like a Miller Light
It’s the best looking beer by a mile and there isn’t a close second
It just tastes better in a Guinness pint glass (like how martinis get a premium from the glasses you drink them out of)
It’s shocking how low calorie a Guinness is. Basically like a Miller Light
December 14, 2025 at 4:30 AM
Some thoughts on Guinness:
It’s the best looking beer by a mile and there isn’t a close second
It just tastes better in a Guinness pint glass (like how martinis get a premium from the glasses you drink them out of)
It’s shocking how low calorie a Guinness is. Basically like a Miller Light
It’s the best looking beer by a mile and there isn’t a close second
It just tastes better in a Guinness pint glass (like how martinis get a premium from the glasses you drink them out of)
It’s shocking how low calorie a Guinness is. Basically like a Miller Light
Trying to come up w/a word to describe this movie and I keep coming back to beautiful
This was really great
This was really great
December 13, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Trying to come up w/a word to describe this movie and I keep coming back to beautiful
This was really great
This was really great