Ben Carlson
bencarlson007.bsky.social
Ben Carlson
@bencarlson007.bsky.social
www.awealthofcommonsense.com
Everyone thinks young ppl are screwed

AI is taking entry level jobs

Housing is too expensive

Social media is rotting brains

I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever

They'll figure it out

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
November 10, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Pluribus might be one of the best pilot TV episodes of the past 20 years

Insanely intriguing
November 10, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Build more homes?

Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages

Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?

Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans

Make food at home?

Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
November 8, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Reader questions:

Should young ppl care about bubbles?

Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?

I have thoughts:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tech Stocks? - A Wealth of Common Sense
Should young people care about bubbles? Is now the time to double down on tech stocks?
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:16 PM
I don’t think ppl are ready for how AI is gonna make wealth inequality worse

If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
November 7, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Because inflation got to 9% in 2022 every politician for the next decade is going to campaign on lower prices and making things more affordable

My guess is none of them are going to deliver

Likely the only thing that will do it is a recession
November 6, 2025 at 6:58 PM
In the 1950s the S&P 500 was up ~500% or almost 20% per year

It's the only mega bull market to end w/a whimper not a bang

There was no crash in the aftermath

The 1960s saw 8% annual returns

Not all good things end badly

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
November 5, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Animal Spirits: Never Go All In on Stocks

A historic melt-up in tech

The case against an AI bubble

Sequence of return risk

Young ppl need to suck it up

AI chart crimes, Michael Saylor & more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
November 5, 2025 at 3:29 PM
This is how you macro
November 3, 2025 at 8:16 PM
How does the tech bull market stack up to history's past melt-ups?

The Dow in the Roaring 20s: +489%

Japn in the 1980s: +510%

The Nasdaq in the 1990s +795%

The Nasdaq 100 over the past 10 years: +512%

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
The Melt-Up - A Wealth of Common Sense
Over the past 10 years the Nasdaq 100 is up almost 20% per year. From the March 2009 lows, the Qs are up 22% per year! That’s more than a decade and a half with annual returns that would make Warren B...
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Will trend following save you if the AI bubble pops?

A closer look at the pros and cons of a trend following strategy:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/tren...
Trend Following in a Bubble - A Wealth of Common Sense
How does trendfollowing work?
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 1, 2025 at 2:59 PM
The 1990s:

This is a good movie so we'll keep it 1 hr and 37 mins

The 2020s:

This could've been a good movie but we decided to make it 2 hours and 15 mins
October 31, 2025 at 3:15 AM
For a movie that was trying to be good A House of Dynamite is up there for worst movie endings of all time

Just awful

There should be a warning on Netflix
October 31, 2025 at 1:11 AM
At the lows in April Nvidia's market cap was $2.3 trillion

Today it's >$5.1 trillion

Unreal
October 29, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Animal Spirits: Never Pay Off Your Mortgage

Can we have a capex bubble w/o a stock market bubble?

How many stocks outperform?

We need lower housing prices

Do retail investors even want private investments?

Americans love eating out & more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
October 29, 2025 at 12:54 PM
These were YTD returns as of 4/8/25:

S&P 500 -15.0%
Nasdaq 100 -18.5%
R2000 -20.7%
EAFE -3.5%
EM -7.8%

Now the 2025 YTD returns thru Monday:

S&P 500 +17.9%
Nasdaq 100 +23.3%
R2000 +14.2%
EAFE +28.8%
EM +34.5%

Staying the course worked (again):

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/stay...
October 28, 2025 at 5:24 PM
We haven't had a real recession in 196 months

Some questions for the next one:

Will the wealth effect make things worse?

Will young ppl stay invested?

What will happen to illiquid private investments?

Will households ramp up their borrowing?

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/what...
October 27, 2025 at 6:21 PM
How many individual stocks outperform the stock market in a given year?

(more than you think)

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
How Many Stocks Outperform the Stock Market? - A Wealth of Common Sense
A reader asks: Could you talk about what percentage of stocks that are beating the S&P over the last 5 years also beat the S&P the 5 years before that? I’m curious what names appear in both lists, wit...
awealthofcommonsense.com
October 23, 2025 at 6:21 PM
I’m flying to NYC for a couple of days

The pilot just informed us that everyone who enters the city limits is now required to take a picture of the new JP Morgan building and share it on social media

Bonus points if you include a bunch of finance bros in navy vests
October 23, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Realizing the seat next to you is empty on an airplane is easily one of life’s biggest little joys
October 23, 2025 at 4:00 PM
3 things:

1. New vehicles are really expensive now

2. People under 40 are all in on the stock market

3. Wealth inequality is turning into health inequality

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/3-ch...
October 22, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Animal Spirits: The Zero Dollar Club

Everyone thinks AI is a bubble

What would Jesse Livermore think of this market?

The pros & cons of owning gold

Shorting stocks is hard

Will Bitcoin hit $200k by 2027?

Leveraged ETFs are out of control & more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
October 22, 2025 at 12:43 PM
There is a reason rich ppl spent a lot of time trying to convince low income workers the economy was terrible in 2021, 2022 and 2023
October 20, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Gold is up ~60% this year

It's beating the stock market since 2000 (and in the 2020s)

It's one of the more unique financial assets out there

But I don't own any gold

Here are some of my reasons:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/why-...
Why I Don't Own Any Gold - A Wealth of Common Sense
Gold is on fire. The yellow metal is up more than 60% this year. It’s risen nearly 30% in the last 3 months alone. It’s hard to get a nuanced opinion on gold as a holding. There are a lot of extreme o...
awealthofcommonsense.com
October 20, 2025 at 1:30 PM
18% of American households are now millionaires (if you include home equity)

For many that wealth is mostly tied up in their home and retirement accts

Some thoughts on the pros and cons of being house/retirement acct rich:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/hous...
October 18, 2025 at 2:21 PM