Chris Williamson
@chris-williamson.bsky.social
Posting from a personal capacity.
Reposted by Chris Williamson
Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social
2025 Government Shutdown FAQs on BLS Data — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Friends of BLS The 2025 Government Shutdown and BLS Data: Questions & Answers How will the government shutdown, which may be over by the time you read this, affect BLS data? F...
www.friendsofbls.org
November 12, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social
Reposted by Chris Williamson
This looks rather meaningful.
November 10, 2025 at 9:40 AM
This looks rather meaningful.
Reposted by Chris Williamson
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
October 24, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
UK inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in June, and the official annual % change data may rise further in the next couple of months, but the forward-looking PMI data suggest the worst of the recent upturn in underlying price pressures has already started easing
July 16, 2025 at 12:05 PM
UK inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in June, and the official annual % change data may rise further in the next couple of months, but the forward-looking PMI data suggest the worst of the recent upturn in underlying price pressures has already started easing
US CPI inflation up from 2.4% to 2.7% in June with further rises to come in the months ahead according to the S&P Global PMI
July 15, 2025 at 2:17 PM
US CPI inflation up from 2.4% to 2.7% in June with further rises to come in the months ahead according to the S&P Global PMI
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
July 4, 2025 at 3:46 PM
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Week ahead economics: Fed minutes, UK GDP and inflation data for mainland China are key releases in a week which is likely to be dominated by the looming US tariff deadline.
Read all about it in our Week Ahead preview: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Read all about it in our Week Ahead preview: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
LinkedIn
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lnkd.in
July 4, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Week ahead economics: Fed minutes, UK GDP and inflation data for mainland China are key releases in a week which is likely to be dominated by the looming US tariff deadline.
Read all about it in our Week Ahead preview: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Read all about it in our Week Ahead preview: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Reposted by Chris Williamson
PMIs suggest a pretty rapid increase in German manufacturing productivity, and indeed in the PMI itself.
(c) Deutsche Bank
(c) Deutsche Bank
June 6, 2025 at 10:35 AM
PMIs suggest a pretty rapid increase in German manufacturing productivity, and indeed in the PMI itself.
(c) Deutsche Bank
(c) Deutsche Bank
Over the worst? UK construction PMI for May showed output and new orders falling at the slowest rates since January, while growth projections for the year ahead improved again. But it's not all good news, as job losses accelerated to highest in nearly 5 years. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
www.pmi.spglobal.com
June 5, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Over the worst? UK construction PMI for May showed output and new orders falling at the slowest rates since January, while growth projections for the year ahead improved again. But it's not all good news, as job losses accelerated to highest in nearly 5 years. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Early 'flash' PMI data show US prices spiking higher in May amid tariff impact. Hints at potentially sizeable CPI rise. Full press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
May 22, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Early 'flash' PMI data show US prices spiking higher in May amid tariff impact. Hints at potentially sizeable CPI rise. Full press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Reposted by Chris Williamson
Booming services fire up India business growth in May despite rising inflation, PMI shows reut.rs/45s6kZk
Booming services fire up India business growth in May despite rising inflation, PMI shows
India's private sector activity accelerated at its fastest pace in over a year in May, driven by robust expansion in services even as price pressures intensified, a survey showed on Wednesday.
reut.rs
May 22, 2025 at 5:30 AM
Booming services fire up India business growth in May despite rising inflation, PMI shows reut.rs/45s6kZk
This week sees flash PMI data released on Thursday, which will supply markets with more detailed insights into economic trends in the face of changing global trade conditions among the major economies.
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
May 19, 2025 at 7:19 AM
This week sees flash PMI data released on Thursday, which will supply markets with more detailed insights into economic trends in the face of changing global trade conditions among the major economies.
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Quite the divergence between UK GDP growth and employment so far this year... points to big productivity gains if it persists. Are we replacing people with capital amid rising staff costs? It would explain the big jump in investment spending in Q1, if correct.
May 15, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Quite the divergence between UK GDP growth and employment so far this year... points to big productivity gains if it persists. Are we replacing people with capital amid rising staff costs? It would explain the big jump in investment spending in Q1, if correct.
The UK enjoyed a strong first quarter again in 2025. Spot the pattern ... (1/2)
May 15, 2025 at 9:14 AM
The UK enjoyed a strong first quarter again in 2025. Spot the pattern ... (1/2)
US annual consumer price inflation down to 2.3% in April, its lowest since February 2021, but companies have been reporting some renewed upward pressure on selling prices in recent months, often linked to tariffs, which looks set to feed through to higher inflation in the coming months.
May 13, 2025 at 2:42 PM
US annual consumer price inflation down to 2.3% in April, its lowest since February 2021, but companies have been reporting some renewed upward pressure on selling prices in recent months, often linked to tariffs, which looks set to feed through to higher inflation in the coming months.
Worrying signs of UK labour market weakness from business surveys such as the PMI are also becoming increasingly apparent in the official data. HMRC data showed payrolled employment down 33K in April after a 47K fall in March and a 27k drop in Feb. Employment is now down 150K since last October
May 13, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Worrying signs of UK labour market weakness from business surveys such as the PMI are also becoming increasingly apparent in the official data. HMRC data showed payrolled employment down 33K in April after a 47K fall in March and a 27k drop in Feb. Employment is now down 150K since last October
"A decline in new export orders reported by UK manufacturers [in April] was not only the steepest recorded since May 2020, but was also greater than recorded by any other economy tracked by the S&P Global PMI surveys." More at www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
May 8, 2025 at 7:11 AM
"A decline in new export orders reported by UK manufacturers [in April] was not only the steepest recorded since May 2020, but was also greater than recorded by any other economy tracked by the S&P Global PMI surveys." More at www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Reposted by Chris Williamson
This chart is absolutely nuts
Welcome to Brexitland, US, in which waywardness is described as "strategic uncertainty", restrictions on trade boost performance and self harm is lauded....
Spoiler, it does not end happily
www.ft.com/content/342d...
Spoiler, it does not end happily
www.ft.com/content/342d...
May 1, 2025 at 7:15 PM
This chart is absolutely nuts
Reposted by Chris Williamson
Extremely cool FEDS Note that links consumer sentiment data to actually spending at the respondent level and shows that the disconnect between sentiment and spending post-COVID was extremely unique and driven by inflation perception not real incomes.
Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
April 25, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Extremely cool FEDS Note that links consumer sentiment data to actually spending at the respondent level and shows that the disconnect between sentiment and spending post-COVID was extremely unique and driven by inflation perception not real incomes.
Paging @darioperkins.bsky.social
"Trump gave in for the same reason Truss did. For the second time in three years, the reckless leader of a major English-speaking power has played mind games with global bond investors and lost." Cogent analysis here from @paulmason.bsky.social. www.theatlantic.com/economy/arch...
Trump Brings Britain’s ‘Moron Premium’ to the U.S. Economy
What America might have learned, but didn’t, from Britain’s 2022 financial-markets debacle
www.theatlantic.com
April 12, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Paging @darioperkins.bsky.social
Reposted by Chris Williamson
It's easy to remember tariffs spelling as it ends in FFS
January 21, 2025 at 6:20 AM
It's easy to remember tariffs spelling as it ends in FFS
Reposted by Chris Williamson
The 10 year Treasury yield has shot up to 4.45% and the 30-year is close to 5%. Here’s my attempt from yesterday to explain why even the biggest and safest bond market now seems to be creaking. TLDR: the liquidation of massively leveraged hedge fund trades. on.ft.com/3R748hN
The Treasury basis trade rears its head again
[FREE TO READ] Bills and bonds and Treasury basis trades, oh my!
on.ft.com
April 9, 2025 at 5:56 AM
The 10 year Treasury yield has shot up to 4.45% and the 30-year is close to 5%. Here’s my attempt from yesterday to explain why even the biggest and safest bond market now seems to be creaking. TLDR: the liquidation of massively leveraged hedge fund trades. on.ft.com/3R748hN
"container shipping rates are in a freefall. Average container freight rates for Chinese exports as tracked by the CCFI dropped 28% since the start of the year, posting the worst first quarter in the past 20 years" www.joc.com/article/trum...
Trump announces 10% across-the-board tariffs on all US imports | Journal of Commerce
But countries believed by the White House as having an unfair advantage over the US on trade will be hit with higher levies, including China, South Korea and European Union nations.
www.joc.com
April 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
"container shipping rates are in a freefall. Average container freight rates for Chinese exports as tracked by the CCFI dropped 28% since the start of the year, posting the worst first quarter in the past 20 years" www.joc.com/article/trum...
Reposted by Chris Williamson
At least he is wearing a suit.
April 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
At least he is wearing a suit.
In addition to US factory prices spiking higher, input costs are rising at the fastest rate for 18 months in the US service sector. Full release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
April 3, 2025 at 2:03 PM
In addition to US factory prices spiking higher, input costs are rising at the fastest rate for 18 months in the US service sector. Full release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...